Consensus Bubble Watch

[Section31]

Except that nobody gives that reason.

The reason that everyone has OSU in is because what "matters" is the entire season.

OSU has 5 wins against RPI top 50 teams and no bad losses.

All of the teams that are still "on the bubble" typically have only 2 or maybe 3 RPI top 50 wins and a couple (or more) bad losses.



OSU also beat Colorado on a neutral court when they still had Dinwittle. (sp?) Colorado is still going to be a tournament team, and they would have likely finished near the top of the Pac 12 with Dinwittle.

There's definitely some credence to their wins vs top 50 teams. Even with that considered, they sit at 40 (tied with Nebraska). Seems like everyone screaming for everyone to look at their entire body of work then wants to ignore how average to below average they've been during conference play.

Colorado is 30 in RPI and has a MUCH higher SOS.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

You have a big blind spot here, but I'm not going to get to take advantage of it because OSU upset KU, going 3-1, and thus making my our bet on the outcome of a 2-2 finish and a finals loss moot. (Although in theory they could still make the finals and miss the tournament, in which case you'd win the bet).

Look at the other teams on the bubble. Look at who they played, where they played them, and what the outcomes were? Their resume is better. Throw in a solid finish and some potential de-emphasizing of their three losses with Smart out, and they're a mortal lock.

If they get to the semis and lose (pretty much the same finish as 2-2 in the regular season and losing in the finals), they're probably a 7 seed or so. Not even close to the bubble.

The post of mine that you are referencing is me saying that if they lose their first tourny game and marcus smart was never suspended and stevie clark was never booted and if cobbins was never injured they wouldn't make it in at 8-11 in conference.

 

[Section31]

OSU also beat Colorado on a neutral court when they still had Dinwittle. (sp?) Colorado is still going to be a tournament team, and they would have likely finished near the top of the Pac 12 with Dinwittle.

And NEITHER team is close to the same team they were. They both should be extremely similar in an evaluation IMO. That's why RPI is a good indicator of their entire body of work.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

What bad losses? They lost ONE league game to a team not going Dancing, and that same team beat us in Norman (TT). They also lost three in OT during that stretch.

.

While I agree that they should get in, where do you draw the line? do you not count loses that are against tourney teams anymore? Hey TCU only has four conference loses against teams that aren't going dancing!

 

[boksooner]

There's definitely some credence to their wins vs top 50 teams. Even with that considered, they sit at 40 (tied with Nebraska). Seems like everyone screaming for everyone to look at their entire body of work then wants to ignore how average to below average they've been during conference play.

Colorado is 30 in RPI and has a MUCH higher SOS.

And OSU beat them on a neutral court. The fact is that OSU played a better schedule than virtually all the bubble teams. They have more quality wins than all the bubble teams. They have less bad losses than all the bubble teams. This is one of the softest bubbles we have seen in years. If this was any other year, OSU might be considered a bubble team, but there just aren't a lot of better options near the bubble. That is why OSU is considered a lock.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

So K-State should be on the bubble as well, right? They have the exact same record and also lost to Baylor at home. Also beat KU at home just like OSU. Or was KU "uninterested" in that game, too?

OSU should be in and will be in. There's really no debate about it if you actually pay attention to the overall resume.

lol fail

 

[SoonerBounce13]

But if their conference records are literally one game off. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

fail again. keep it up

 

[Section31]

And OSU beat them on a neutral court. The fact is that OSU played a better schedule than virtually all the bubble teams. They have more quality wins than all the bubble teams. They have less bad losses than all the bubble teams. This is one of the softest bubbles we have seen in years. If this was any other year, OSU might be considered a bubble team, but there just aren't a lot of better options near the bubble. That is why OSU is considered a lock.

He brought up Colorado and neither team is the same team. RPI tells the story. Both should be on the bubble. If OSU wins against TT, they should be in. If they lose, there's no question in my mind, that they should be out.

 

[Section31]

BTW, their non-conference SOS is 101

 

[boksooner]

He brought up Colorado and neither team is the same team. RPI tells the story. Both should be on the bubble. If OSU wins against TT, they should be in. If they lose, there's no question in my mind, that they should be out.

Which bubble teams deserve to get in over OSU?

**The Bubble**

Considered "In" by 2 of the 3
BYU
Louisiana Tech

Considered "Out" By 2 of the 3
Southern Miss (USA has them in)
Providence (CBS has them in)

"Out" by all 3 but close
Minnesota (1st team out on USA, 2nd on the other 2)
California (1st team out on ESPN, 2nd on USA, 3rd on CBS)

Need a lot of help
St. Johns (3rd out ESPN, 4th out USA)
Missouri (1st out CBS)
Georgetown (4th out CBS)
Florida State (3rd out USA)

Anyone else probably needs to win their tourney.

 

[Section31]

Which bubble teams deserve to get in over OSU?

Dunno. That's not the discussion

 

[boksooner]

Dunno. That's not the discussion

How is it not the discussion? If you say OSU shouldn't be in if they lose to Tech, there has to be a replacement. The bubble is terrible this year, which is one of the contributing factors for why OSU is considered a lock regardless of what happens against Tech. If there were quality replacement candidates, OSU would absolutely be on the bubble.

 

[Kewllane]

fail again. keep it up

Please explain then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Section31]

How is it not the discussion? If you say OSU shouldn't be in if they lose to Tech, there has to be a replacement. The bubble is terrible this year, which is one of the contributing factors for why OSU is considered a lock regardless of what happens against Tech. If there were quality replacement candidates, OSU would absolutely be on the bubble.

The discussion was whether they should be a bubble team

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Please explain then.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

they are separated by two games

 

[SoonerBounce13]

The discussion was whether they should be a bubble team

Quality of the bubble changes each year. In previous years osu may have been a bubble team. All BOK is saying is that the bubble teams are bad this year and osu is clearly better than them. so this year, no they shouldn't be a bubble team

 

[boksooner]

The discussion was whether they should be a bubble team

Yes. And they shouldn't, because of the relative quality of bubble teams. The bubble is not a fixed point. It moves from year to year based on the overall quality of teams that are competing for the last few spots in the NCAA Tournament. The relative lack of quality of this year's bubble has moved the line down as compared to prior years. This is a big factor for why OSU is not on the bubble, because there are not enough quality replacements to push them onto the bubble.

 

[Section31]

Yes. And they shouldn't, because of the relative quality of bubble teams. The bubble is not a fixed point. It moves from year to year based on the overall quality of teams that are competing for the last few spots in the NCAA Tournament. The relative lack of quality of this year's bubble has moved the line down as compared to prior years. This is a big factor for why OSU is not on the bubble, because there are not enough quality replacements to push them onto the bubble.

MANY of those bubble teams appear to have better resumes and I'm not sure why a team like BYU is considered out, but OSU would be considered a lock. They win out in nearly every category.

Last 12 is pretty indicative of "who you are" when SOS is considered IMO.

 

[Section31]

Quality of the bubble changes each year. In previous years osu may have been a bubble team. All BOK is saying is that the bubble teams are bad this year and osu is clearly better than them. so this year, no they shouldn't be a bubble team

I don't need to have that explained. Go pull up the RPI poll on ESPN. Many in this thread appear to be buying what the media is saying and combining it with "potential" rather than what actually happened.

 

[Kewllane]

they are separated by two games

Ok, that's what I thought you meant.

You didn't give my whole quote on your post so I was just clarifying.

What I meant by my post when I said "You take a win away from K-State and give it to OSU, they would have the same record" was that if you took that win away from K-State then the result of that game would be a loss. So it would add a loss to their record as well. And vice versa with OSU adding a win and subtracting a loss. I guess I should've been more clear in my statement. But they would have the same record in conference then.