Cousins to NBA Combine...

[thebigabd]

reminds me of slightly of less polished Elfrid Payton?

Elfrid is way out of Cousins' league.... He was a starter at point guard in the NBA from day one.

I think he is more like E'Twaun Moore out of Purdue, currently playing for the Bulls. 6'4'', combo guard kind of guy, defender, not real fantastic at anything, but just a good solid basketball player.

 

[Smash Williams]

unfortunately, with the use of analytics, a big revelation has been a good indicator of 3P% in the NBA is actually FT% in college. They say it shows proper mechanics and repeatability in your shot, when the line moves back on you.

Cousins never shot better than 80% but that was soph, going 65% and 67% senior year. I imagine a lot of NBA teams won't see him as much of a potential NBA threat with some of these numbers, even with his 45% and 41.1% 3P percentage the last two years. Hopefully he gets a chance to prove someone wrong though. He obviously is willing to work in the gym plenty on it.

If I'm not mistaken, a big part of why FT% has been a slightly stronger predictor is sample size. The type of college players who are NBA draft prospects typically attempt a lot more free throws than 3-pointers, though that's starting to change a bit (see: Chavano Rainier Hield). Thus, despite the difference in distance and contested vs. uncontested, FT% can provide a better idea of a player's NBA 3-point shooting ability if the player took 500 FTA and only 100 3PA in college.

Noah Vonleh, for example, hit 48.5% of threes at Indiana, but he only had 33 3PA; on the other hand, he hit 71.6% of his 134 FTA. I'm not making any judgment on his NBA career at this point, but even without the benefit of hindsight, that's a case where you have to put more weight on the FT%.

Cousins, on the other hand, took a lot more 3PA than FTA, especially his last two years. I think in his case, teams will--or should--put more weight into his college 3PT% than his FT%.

 

[dahldennsull]

If I'm not mistaken, a big part of why FT% has been a slightly stronger predictor is sample size. The type of college players who are NBA draft prospects typically attempt a lot more free throws than 3-pointers, though that's starting to change a bit (see: Chavano Rainier Hield). Thus, despite the difference in distance and contested vs. uncontested, FT% can provide a better idea of a player's NBA 3-point shooting ability if the player took 500 FTA and only 100 3PA in college.

Noah Vonleh, for example, hit 48.5% of threes at Indiana, but he only had 33 3PA; on the other hand, he hit 71.6% of his 134 FTA. I'm not making any judgment on his NBA career at this point, but even without the benefit of hindsight, that's a case where you have to put more weight on the FT%.

Cousins, on the other hand, took a lot more 3PA than FTA, especially his last two years. I think in his case, teams will--or should--put more weight into his college 3PT% than his FT%.

thanks, I couldn't remember the full article I read and can't find it anymore. This makes a lot of sense, as you're right, it's pretty darn rare for a college player to take more 3's than free throws. He definitely has a nice sample size from 3 to give teams hope he can shoot it a little deeper.

 

[skyvue]

Cousins, on the other hand, took a lot more 3PA than FTA, especially his last two years. I think in his case, teams will--or should--put more weight into his college 3PT% than his FT%.

I'm no NBA maven -- quite the opposite -- but this makes a lot of sense to me.

 

[Smash Williams]

thanks, I couldn't remember the full article I read and can't find it anymore. This makes a lot of sense, as you're right, it's pretty darn rare for a college player to take more 3's than free throws. He definitely has a nice sample size from 3 to give teams hope he can shoot it a little deeper.

Maybe this is what you were looking: http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/in...el-frazier-dangelo-russell-top-shooters-draft

It's part of an Insider article, but here's the relevant passage:

When it comes to predicting NBA 3-point percentages, we have to take into account more than just what a player shot from 3-point range in college (or overseas). Because of the high variability in 3-point shooting, especially in small samples like the shorter NCAA season, free throw percentage matters, too.


Predicting NBA 3-point percentage


It might seem crazy that anything but the college 3-point shooting percentage would help predict NBA 3-point shooting. But history is striking in this regard. Consider this: 13 players in Sports-Reference.com's college database (dating to 1997-98) shot at least 42 percent from 3-point range with at least 250 career attempts and have attempted at least 500 career 3-pointers as pros. A similar-sized group of players made at least 85 percent of their free throws on the same number of attempts. Lo and behold, the two groups -- which overlap somewhat -- have shot almost the same percentage from 3-point range in the NBA.


From a statistical standpoint, it makes sense that free throws might convey important information about a player's overall shooting ability. After all, a player's free throw percentage is much more stable season to season. NBA players who have attempted between 100 and 200 free throws in consecutive seasons have a .785 correlation between their free throw percentage in the two years. (Correlation measures the linear relationship between two numbers, with 1 representing one-to-one correlation and zero indicating no linear relationship at all.) The year-to-year correlation in 3-point percentage among players with the same number of attempts is just .313.

So if we take the full sample of players with at least 250 career 3-point and free throw attempts in the Sports-Reference.com NCAA database and at least 500 career 3s attempted in the NBA, college free throw percentage actually correlates slightly better (.443) to NBA 3-point percentage than college 3-point percentage (.429). Neither is a particularly good predictor of 3-point shooting in the NBA, but together they're stronger than either stat individually, explaining about a quarter of the variation in what players shoot.

There is less variance in FT% than in 3P% from season to season even when looking at a similar number of attempts in each category, so there is more to it than just sample sizes.

As you mentioned, it makes sense that FT% is a slightly better predictor of NBA 3P% because it gives a decent gauge of shooting mechanics and repeatability, but without all of the variables involved 3-point shooting: contested vs. uncontested, off the dribble vs. off the catch, location on the floor (despite the uniform distance on the NCAA 3-point line, individual players just shoot better from certain spots on the floor), distance of the shot, etc.

As Pelton notes, FT% and 3P% combined only explain a quarter of the variation; that's not a bad starting point for evaluation, but that's where you have to dig deeper into those other factors. For example, you have to look at some of the stuff I just mentioned, such as their numbers off the catch vs. off the dribble, contested vs. uncontested, shot selection, etc., compare those numbers to the film, and consider the player's role in his college offense to what it's expected to be in the context of an NBA offense. For example, did the player take tough shots because of poor decision-making, or was it the offensive system and/or the players around him (i.e. lack of creators) that put the onus on the player to force some bad looks?

For Cousins, I'd love to see his off the dribble vs. off the catch. The latter is going to be much more relevant, as I'm guessing NBA teams are looking at him as an off-ball, catch-and-shoot guy. There aren't a ton of guys in the NBA who are dangerous 3-point shooters off the dribble, and those guys typically get the space to take those shots because they have the ability to blow by defenders. I don't see Cousins as a primary ball handler in the NBA, let alone regularly beating NBA defenders off the dribble.

 

[campbest]

Maybe this is what you were looking: I don't see Cousins as a primary b... to just stand at the 3pt line and fire away.

 

[dahldennsull]

Maybe this is what you were looking: http://espn.go.com/nba/draft2015/in...el-frazier-dangelo-russell-top-shooters-draft

It's part of an Insider article, but here's the relevant passage:

There is less variance in FT% than in 3P% from season to season even when looking at a similar number of attempts in each category, so there is more to it than just sample sizes.

As you mentioned, it makes sense that FT% is a slightly better predictor of NBA 3P% because it gives a decent gauge of shooting mechanics and repeatability, but without all of the variables involved 3-point shooting: contested vs. uncontested, off the dribble vs. off the catch, location on the floor (despite the uniform distance on the NCAA 3-point line, individual players just shoot better from certain spots on the floor), distance of the shot, etc.

As Pelton notes, FT% and 3P% combined only explain a quarter of the variation; that's not a bad starting point for evaluation, but that's where you have to dig deeper into those other factors. For example, you have to look at some of the stuff I just mentioned, such as their numbers off the catch vs. off the dribble, contested vs. uncontested, shot selection, etc., compare those numbers to the film, and consider the player's role in his college offense to what it's expected to be in the context of an NBA offense. For example, did the player take tough shots because of poor decision-making, or was it the offensive system and/or the players around him (i.e. lack of creators) that put the onus on the player to force some bad looks?

For Cousins, I'd love to see his off the dribble vs. off the catch. The latter is going to be much more relevant, as I'm guessing NBA teams are looking at him as an off-ball, catch-and-shoot guy. There aren't a ton of guys in the NBA who are dangerous 3-point shooters off the dribble, and those guys typically get the space to take those shots because they have the ability to blow by defenders. I don't see Cousins as a primary ball handler in the NBA, let alone regularly beating NBA defenders off the dribble.

you rock smash! thanks, couldn't find it

 

[Larry72]

Super analysis Smash

 

[KBaden145]

Hield measured 6-5 at the combine. 6-9 1/4 wingspan. Had a feeling he might measure shorter than his listed 6-4. Good for him!


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[soonerjunky]

Hield measured 6-5 at the combine. 6-9 1/4 wingspan. Had a feeling he might measure shorter than his listed 6-4. Good for him!


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His stock just went up, no longer can the knock on him be, he's too short.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Isaiah measured 6'4.5 but only a 6'6.25 wing span .... but a stupid 4.8% body fat

buddy was a still very good 6.1% body fat

 

[Smash Williams]

Isaiah measured 6'4.5 but only a 6'6.25 wing span .... but a stupid 4.8% body fat

buddy was a still very good 6.1% body fat

6'6.25" wingspan, 8'2.5" standing reach...not good at all.

Buddy would have been in a great position regardless of his measurements, but a fringe prospect like Cousins really needed to stand out. Instead, Cousins is a wing prospect who measured out like a PG.

There aren't too many off-ball (offensively) guards making it in the league at that size. One exception is Patrick Beverley, who's about the same size as Cousins (6'6.5" wingspan, 8'2" standing reach), but he's a notoriously relentless pest of a defender and a career 37% 3-point shooter who only caught on in the NBA after several years in Europe.

 

[sperry]

Can't believe Isaiah's wingspan was only 6'6 1/4". That hurts a lot, I figured he would measure out great on wingspan.

 

[pnkranger]

Can't believe Isaiah's wingspan was only 6'6 1/4". That hurts a lot, I figured he would measure out great on wingspan.

Arms are long, but he has a really thin frame. Probably loses 3 inches to Buddy from shoulder to shoulder.

 

[sperry]

Arms are long, but he has a really thin frame. Probably loses 3 inches to Buddy from shoulder to shoulder.

That's probably accurate. I still think he can play a role in the NBA, the problem is there are dozens of guys like that, and only a few spots. He's best off going undrafted and findign a coach who likes him.

 

[Smash Williams]

That's probably accurate. I still think he can play a role in the NBA, the problem is there are dozens of guys like that, and only a few spots. He's best off going undrafted and findign a coach who likes him.

That's what I was getting at with him needing to stand out in any possible way, including measurements.

Danny Green, who was mentioned previously in this thread, bounced around for a while before sticking with the Spurs, but he had the pedigree (McD AA, UNC) and a 6'10" wingspan. Cousins isn't getting as many cracks as Danny Green did.

 

[Zimwillett]

That's probably accurate. I still think he can play a role in the NBA, the problem is there are dozens of guys like that, and only a few spots. He's best off going undrafted and findign a coach who likes him.

Exactly. There were only 446 total players on NBA opening day rosters in 2015-16. If you figure that 90% of those spots are filled by either established players or higher drafted rookies, it leaves fewer than 50 roster spots for players like Cousins in any given year (and that's being extremely generous). I'm not saying Cousins can't/won't make it, but the odds are extremely long, and only get longer with average measurables.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Arms are long, but he has a really thin frame. Probably loses 3 inches to Buddy from shoulder to shoulder.

this shows on the standing reach .. buddy 8'5" isaiah 8'2.5"

so he picks up a half inch ..

 

[BoulderSooner]

Isaiah 37 inch vert ..

 

[152219]

http://oklahoma.247sports.com/Bolt/...ccess=Your+Bolt+has+been+successfully+created