ESPN Oklahoma Tourney Preview and Projection story

jackson_supersooner

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Thought this was a really good right up. Did notice Lattins stats were off but everything else looked good.
Having taken five teams to the NCAA tournament, including the Oklahoma Sooners three times in four seasons, Lon Kruger has been a model of coaching consistency. Big success in the tournament, however, has mostly eluded him. Each of the past two seasons Kruger's Sooners have produced disappointing second-round performances and early exits. Could this Oklahoma team, probably the best under Kruger, make noise in the tournament for the first time since Blake Griffin played in Norman, Oklahoma, in 2009?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to go deep on each team. Additionally, Joey Brackets will let you know how far he feels each team can go.

TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: UCLA, Baylor, West Virginia, Iowa State, at Oklahoma State

Worst losses: at Creighton, Washington

Conference finish: 2nd, Big 12

Polls and metrics: Oklahoma spent the entire season in the AP poll, never climbing higher than 15th and never falling lower than 24th, which it did following consecutive losses to Kansas and Baylor. Ken Pomeroy and the BPI rankings have also recognized the Sooners as a top-20 team for much of the season.

All-time tourney record: 35-28, four Final Four appearances

Coach's tourney record: Lon Kruger (14-15, one Final Four appearance)

Bracketology chart | BPI information

PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are for the regular season only.)

STARTING LINEUP

F TaShawn Thomas (11.1 PPG, 6.2 RPG)
F Ryan Spangler (10.3 PPG, 7.8 RPG)
G Buddy Hield (17.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
G Isaiah Cousins (12.2 PPG, 2.2 APG)
G Jordan Woodard (9.0 PPG, 4.0 APG)

Key bench players

G Frank Booker (5.2 PPG, 1.4 RPG)
G Dinjiyl Walker (3.7 PPG, 1.0 RPG)
G Khadeem Lattin (8.2 PPG, 3.2 RPG)

Biggest strength: The Sooners have five true offensive weapons and can score in a variety of ways. Thomas has added a legitimate low-post threat to a seasoned and dynamic perimeter game that features Hield, Cousins and Woodard. This has evolved into a confident group that will attack offensively and is especially effective in transition.

Biggest weakness: While Booker has given Oklahoma a boost late in the season, there isn't much depth here, particularly behind Spangler and Thomas in the frontcourt. All five starters are major contributors, and each is also individually important. The bench is a considerable drop-off. Although a Sooner has fouled out just three times this season, foul trouble looms as a potential issue.

Best player: Hield. The 6-foot-4 junior personifies the Sooners' personality and plays with a joy that is the foundation of the team's confidence. Fearless, Hield is one of the country's best transition scorers and also a top 3-point threat. Certainly, there is something to be said for the player who leads the nation's most competitive conference in scoring.

X factor: Thomas. The senior transfer from Houston can be the perfect complement to Oklahoma's dynamic perimeter game. His low-post scoring adds a dimension Kruger didn't have a season ago. He is the one physical presence that Oklahoma boasts. However, it's not uncommon for Thomas to disappear for stretches. When he's involved, Oklahoma can score every way imaginable.

SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: The Sooners want to spread the floor, drive and kick. That is how their 3-point game is derived. Hield, Cousins and Woodard are aggressive guards who move the ball. They will take every opportunity to push tempo to create more open looks. Spangler is a key in the half court. He sets the majority of the high ball screens, after which he can rescreen, pop for a 3 or dive cut to the rim. He helps create much of the space the guards thrive in.

Defensive approach: While he will throw in the occasional 2-3 zone with this club, Kruger has always been a man-to-man coach. The Sooners will generally switch on ball screens. It's a no-gimmicks defense, which has been particularly efficient this season and is largely about the commitment the players bring each game.

How they beat you: The Sooners have the ability to score in bunches and do it by playing up-tempo without necessarily going fast. They want to get Hield going and ride that wave. That's when they play offense easily, while at the same time making it anything but easy for the opposing offense.

How you beat them: Force Woodard to make the play rather than be the facilitator. His game is getting into the lane and finding teammates. Remaining disciplined with assignments and making him the shooter or finisher minimizes Oklahoma's strengths. It's also important to just hang around. The Sooners were bad in close games until late in the season. They lost their first six by seven points or fewer.

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 8.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency, 48th (109.6)
Defensive efficiency, 5th (89.4)
3-point percentage, 152nd (34.6)
3-point percentage D, 46th (31.3)
Free throw rate, 279th (32.9)
Free throw rate D, 28th (29.2)
TO percentage, 84th (17.8)
TO percentage D, 96th (20.5)

Good stat: 89.4 defensive efficiency rating
While Oklahoma doesn't employ an exceptional amount of ball pressure or turn teams over, the Sooners don't give up many good looks, either, ranking 11th in the country in 2-point percentage defense. Oklahoma averages more than five blocked shots per game, good for 20th in the country. With Kruger, it's all about trying to limit whatever the other team does best.

Bad stat: 32.9 free throw rate
The Sooners shoot a solid 72.7 percent from the free throw line, but they don't get there enough. The guards penetrate but with the idea of passing back to the perimeter, not finishing at the rim. That leads to a more jump shot-dependent attack and not many free throws.

HOW FAR WILL THEY GO?
Best-case scenario: Elite Eight
How many teams are capable of a 21-3 run at Allen Fieldhouse? This Sooner team did that. It's its ability to play downhill, building on momentum, that indicates this club could play deep into the second weekend. If Oklahoma can create enough shots and those shots are falling, there are only a limited number of teams the Sooners can't beat.

Worst-case scenario: round of 64 exit
Sometimes, this group can fall in love a little too much with the jump shot because it doesn't have the ability to physically overmatch teams. A cold shooting night leaves the Sooners vulnerable to just about any opponent. Low-scoring losses to Creighton and Kansas State, in which Oklahoma combined to shoot 11-of-41 from 3-point range, are good examples.
 
that defense is what gives me hope. just get hot shooting plz...
 
Pretty much nailed it.

I have been saying for months that I can see this team make the Final Four or get beat in the opening round.
 
If the D is going to carry us, it needs to be the D we played earlier this season, not the D we've played recently.
 
I can't stress enough how much Thomas means to our success in this tournament. We have to feed him until teams collapse and start to focus on our inside game and THEN we can go inside/outside. Or even dish to Thomas and if they decide to double with spanglers man then you dish to him for an easy bucket. This was EXTREMELY evident in the first Ostate game.
 
If the D is going to carry us, it needs to be the D we played earlier this season, not the D we've played recently.

I thought that, by and large, the team played excellent defense against ISU and I see no reason why that won't continue. We've got to figure out ways to score.
 
I can't stress enough how much Thomas means to our success in this tournament. We have to feed him until teams collapse and start to focus on our inside game and THEN we can go inside/outside. Or even dish to Thomas and if they decide to double with spanglers man then you dish to him for an easy bucket. This was EXTREMELY evident in the first Ostate game.

Totally agree.
 
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