Football question

[WTSooner]

Our defense is damn tired.

Our defense was never tired.

They faced 57 snaps. Most players played around 45 at most.

 

[WichitaSooner]

yeah he's in the trevor knight/jackson arnold class of qb's.
all we needed this season was a good not great qb.....and we ended up with another bust.
he needs to move on next season or take a massive pay cut.
i'd prefer he move on. give next year's defense a qb to be proud of.

His passer rating is almost identical to Arnold’s last season. Mateer has thrown far more picks, but has thrown for a lot more yards and doesn’t fumble like Arnold. When you consider that Arnold didn’t have a quarterback coach and the ineptitude of our OC last season, in a lot of ways I’d say it’s a wash. Like I said yesterday, Mateer has a better defense and kicker.

 

[Boom Soon]

When did I push the time line back? Go read my posts in this thread, I've always said it'll be after the season before he's healthy.

Google can be your friend. Or go ask a doctor. Pretty much any thumb surgery the MINIMUM time frame given for full recovery is 3-6 months.

I'll do the math for you, three months from the date of surgery is Christmas Eve. That's the earliest date I've heard or seen from anybody or anywhere.

Generic from the internet:

Weeks 8–12: Most patients achieve full motion, and athletes can begin a gradual return to sports activities. Full strength recovery can take up to 6 months.

He's was at 9 weeks and a couple of days on Saturday.

But sure, he's fully recovered and 100% healthy. <insert eye roll reaction to ignorance and bias>

Just admit you were wrong about BV and stop trying to keep making excuses and pick apart a pretty damn good team. Struggling offense or not.

Excuses excuses excuses excuses. you’re in the minority here bud. You’re the only one dying on the “it’s the thumb” hill.

And if we’re talking about BV, I’ve been a big supporter of BV from day one. Go back and look at MY post history.

It doesn’t matter though because they’re in the playoffs! Anything can happen now. Just enjoy the ride.

Edit: The last thing I’ll say on the matter is I’m more than happy to admit I’m wrong about Mateer if/when he tears it up during the playoffs. If you’re right and the thumb is the issue then he should still play better after three weeks rest. We shall see!

 

[Boom Soon]

Our defense was never tired.

They faced 57 snaps. Most players played around 45 at most.

My wife and I went to the South Carolina game, and we both chuckled at the amount of time the players stand around during TV timeouts, and such. I never really noticed it watching from home. I know they play their absolute tails off, but I will never contribute bad play to tiredness. Assuming they're in football shape and such.

 

[Eielson]

His passer rating is almost identical to Arnold’s last season. Mateer has thrown far more picks, but has thrown for a lot more yards and doesn’t fumble like Arnold. When you consider that Arnold didn’t have a quarterback coach and the ineptitude of our OC last season, in a lot of ways I’d say it’s a wash. Like I said yesterday, Mateer has a better defense and kicker.

I don't know how to put this more plainly:

2024 Jackson Arnold QBR: 47.9
2025 John Mateer QBR: 65.7

They are not even remotely in the same tier. You don't have to be a statistician to discuss advanced stats, but at least have an elementary understanding about them before pretending to interpret them.

 

[sanguinetti]

i'm 57. the 75 OU loss to KU was the first game I ever saw OU lose at the football. I couldn't believe it the next day. and we still won the NC that year. Boomer Sooner.

some of ya'll act if we don't score on every play we suck.

on the other hand, I watched a YouTube of highlights of yesterdays game and one of the "highlights" was a 2 yard shovel pass to Kanak.

6 of one, half dozen of the other.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I don't know how to put this more plainly:

2024 Jackson Arnold QBR: 47.9
2025 John Mateer QBR: 65.7

They are not even remotely in the same tier. You don't have to be a statistician to discuss advanced stats, but at least have an elementary understanding about them before pretending to interpret them.

But apparently you do have to be a statistician to understand the difference between passer rating and QBR.

 

[WichitaSooner]

i'm 57. the 75 OU loss to KU was the first game I ever saw OU lose at the football. I couldn't believe it the next day. and we still won the NC that year. Boomer Sooner.

some of ya'll act if we don't score on every play we suck.

on the other hand, I watched a YouTube of highlights of yesterdays game and one of the "highlights" was a 2 yard shovel pass to Kanak.

6 of one, half dozen of the other.

We would settle for a touchdown every other quarter at this point, and no turnovers. Do that and maybe add in a couple FGs, and it would be a massive improvement.

 

[Eielson]

But apparently you do have to be a statistician to understand the difference between passer rating and QBR.

I know the difference. I'm the one that taught you earlier in this thread when you thought they were interchangeable. Or at least tried to. Nobody with even the SLIGHTEST grasp of advanced QB statistics would be using an archaic stat that was designed in 1973 and never modified over QBR to quantify a QBs impact on the game.

 

[Eielson]

Just to review:

Passer rating was designed in 1973. A very simple formula that only accounts for completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. It does not account for rushing, game situation, quality of opponent, penalties caused/avoided, sacks taken, etc.

QBR was designed in 2011 to account for these things, which we can now do thanks to technological advances. It's exponentially better predictor of Heisman and MVPs and also a better predictor regarding impact on play.

A few examples of how this plays out:

- an 8 yard pass on 4th and 7 dramatically improves your chances of winning, while that same 8 yard pass borders on useless when it's 4th and 12. Passer rating views both 8 yard passes as equal, while QBR can quantify the difference.

- A game winning touchdown as time expires vs a touchdown as time runs out while down 28. Passer rating doesn't know the difference. QBR does.

- QB feels pressure and scrambles out of the pocket to throw the ball away and not lose yards vs taking the sack. Passer rating punishes the incompletion but not the sack. QBR quantifies that not losing yardage was the better play.

- QB fumbles the ball on the 5 yard line vs running it in for a touchdown. There is no difference in passer rating, but QBR quantified the massive difference.

- One QB throws for 250 yards with 60% completion, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception against the worst defense in the country. Another QB does the same thing against the best defense in the country. Passer rating does not know the difference. QBR does.

So again, anybody that uses passer rating over QBR is almost 40 years behind and has no clue what they're talking about.

I can almost guarantee @WichitaSooner goes radiosilent here, as is typical when real data/discussion is being had. There truly is no basis to say that Arnold is comparable to Mateer, our defense isn't elite, that we will only win 6 or 7 games this year, that USC is better, Hardy dominates every team, or any of his other countless bad takes/incorrect predictions this year. He will instead resort to grammar complaints, personal attacks, completely unrelated sarcasm, or most likely in this situation -- silence.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Just to review:

Passer rating was designed in 1973. A very simple formula that only accounts for completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. It does not account for rushing, game situation, quality of opponent, penalties caused/avoided, sacks taken, etc.

QBR was designed in 2011 to account for these things, which we can now do thanks to technological advances. It's exponentially better predictor of Heisman and MVPs and also a better predictor regarding impact on play.

A few examples of how this plays out:

- an 8 yard pass on 4th and 7 dramatically improves your chances of winning, while that same 8 yard pass borders on useless when it's 4th and 12. Passer rating views both 8 yard passes as equal, while QBR can quantify the difference.

- A game winning touchdown as time expires vs a touchdown as time runs out while down 28. Passer rating doesn't know the difference. QBR does.

- QB feels pressure and scrambles out of the pocket to throw the ball away and not lose yards vs taking the sack. Passer rating punishes the incompletion but not the sack. QBR quantifies that not losing yardage was the better play.

- QB fumbles the ball on the 5 yard line vs running it in for a touchdown. There is no difference in passer rating, but QBR quantified the massive difference.

- One QB throws for 250 yards with 60% completion, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception against the worst defense in the country. Another QB does the same thing against the best defense in the country. Passer rating does not know the difference. QBR does.

So again, anybody that uses passer rating over QBR is almost 40 years behind and has no clue what they're talking about.

I can almost guarantee @WichitaSooner goes radiosilent here, as is typical when real data/discussion is being had. There truly is no basis to say that Arnold is comparable to Mateer, our defense isn't elite, that we will only win 6 or 7 games this year, that USC is better, Hardy dominates every team, or any of his other countless bad takes/incorrect predictions this year. He will instead resort to grammar complaints, personal attacks, completely unrelated sarcasm, or most likely in this situation -- silence.

Funny that you accuse me of personal attacks. That’s for folks like you and Coach and Skeeter and others who like to call people you don’t agree with idiots, or, in some cases, resort to sexism and homophobia. Again, I don’t know you. I don’t like or dislike you. I don’t care if you agree or disagree with me. I don’t care if you think Mateer is the worst player of all time or the second coming of Joe Montana. I don’t care if you can’t understand my point about us needing more NFL talent and instead turn it into a debate about whether our defense is elite. I don’t care if people can’t spend the five seconds it takes to find out if a game is a road or neutral game. I don’t care if people don’t understand why Moser’s noncon scheduling kills us year after year. You’re entitled to your opinions. And I’m entitled to mine. I don’t lose any sleep about the fact you disagree with me.

 

[Eielson]

Funny that you accuse me of personal attacks. That’s for folks like you and Coach and Skeeter and others who like to call people you don’t agree with idiots, or, in some cases, resort to sexism and homophobia. Again, I don’t know you. I don’t like or dislike you. I don’t care if you agree or disagree with me. I don’t care if you think Mateer is the worst player of all time or the second coming of Joe Montana. I don’t care if you can’t understand my point about us needing more NFL talent and instead turn it into a debate about whether our defense is elite. I don’t care if people can’t spend the five seconds it takes to find out if a game is a road or neutral game. I don’t care if people don’t understand why Moser’s noncon scheduling kills us year after year. You’re entitled to your opinions. And I’m entitled to mine. I don’t lose any sleep about the fact you disagree with me.

As I said in my post, you would avoid any real conversation about advanced stats that disagree with your inaccurate takes, and instead go completely off topic and pretend I make sexist or homphobic posts toward you.

I want real conversation. You don't. I would love to engage in a conversation regarding your viewpoint, but you simply lack the knowledge regarding advanced stats to back up your unwarranted snark.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Likely heading to South Bend but at least we are in!

i think that would take bama winning vs UGA and i don't see that happening .. ND to norman on a friday night ..

 

[Sooner04]

So is the Tide the CFP's first three-loss team if Georgia prevails?

 

[WichitaSooner]

So is the Tide the CFP's first three-loss team if Georgia prevails?

Good question. By the official criteria, they don't have to "protect" teams that lose conference title games. But it would be hard to justify punishing a team for losing a conference title game to a top 4 team, especially when they have already beaten Georgia once this season. I guess it could happen if BYU wins and takes a spot, though.

 

[WTSooner]

i think that would take bama winning vs UGA and i don't see that happening .. ND to norman on a friday night ..

Whoa Mama!!!!!

 

[WTSooner]

So is the Tide the CFP's first three-loss team if Georgia prevails?

They aren't likely to punish teams for losing in the CCG's, unless they get boat raced.

And I'm fine with that. A team shouldn't be penalized for playing a 13th game that nobody else has to play.

We could also remain at 8, even if Bama wins, if they drop Ole Miss at least one spot for losing Kiffin/Weis Jr. (and others?). I'm not sure if we'll see that reflected in the rankings tomorrow night, or if it would happen in the final rankings (if they are going to adjust them at all).

I guess they could decide they should drop Ole MIss a spot, but that puts them in conflict with OU, who they have h2h over, so maybe they just keep them in front of us.

In other words, we better hope UGA beats Bama. Neither team is great, so who knows how it'll play out.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Just to review:

Passer rating was designed in 1973. A very simple formula that only accounts for completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. It does not account for rushing, game situation, quality of opponent, penalties caused/avoided, sacks taken, etc.

QBR was designed in 2011 to account for these things, which we can now do thanks to technological advances. It's exponentially better predictor of Heisman and MVPs and also a better predictor regarding impact on play.

A few examples of how this plays out:

- an 8 yard pass on 4th and 7 dramatically improves your chances of winning, while that same 8 yard pass borders on useless when it's 4th and 12. Passer rating views both 8 yard passes as equal, while QBR can quantify the difference.

- A game winning touchdown as time expires vs a touchdown as time runs out while down 28. Passer rating doesn't know the difference. QBR does.

- QB feels pressure and scrambles out of the pocket to throw the ball away and not lose yards vs taking the sack. Passer rating punishes the incompletion but not the sack. QBR quantifies that not losing yardage was the better play.

- QB fumbles the ball on the 5 yard line vs running it in for a touchdown. There is no difference in passer rating, but QBR quantified the massive difference.

- One QB throws for 250 yards with 60% completion, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception against the worst defense in the country. Another QB does the same thing against the best defense in the country. Passer rating does not know the difference. QBR does.

So again, anybody that uses passer rating over QBR is almost 40 years behind and has no clue what they're talking about.

I can almost guarantee @WichitaSooner goes radiosilent here, as is typical when real data/discussion is being had. There truly is no basis to say that Arnold is comparable to Mateer, our defense isn't elite, that we will only win 6 or 7 games this year, that USC is better, Hardy dominates every team, or any of his other countless bad takes/incorrect predictions this year. He will instead resort to grammar complaints, personal attacks, completely unrelated sarcasm, or most likely in this situation -- silence.

How does QBR account for these plays in certain game scenarios?


I still prefer qb rating vs qbr when looking at a qb's passing ability.
And when doing that, Mateer and arnold are not far apart

 

[WTSooner]

Just to review:

Passer rating was designed in 1973. A very simple formula that only accounts for completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. It does not account for rushing, game situation, quality of opponent, penalties caused/avoided, sacks taken, etc.

QBR was designed in 2011 to account for these things, which we can now do thanks to technological advances. It's exponentially better predictor of Heisman and MVPs and also a better predictor regarding impact on play.

A few examples of how this plays out:

- an 8 yard pass on 4th and 7 dramatically improves your chances of winning, while that same 8 yard pass borders on useless when it's 4th and 12. Passer rating views both 8 yard passes as equal, while QBR can quantify the difference.

- A game winning touchdown as time expires vs a touchdown as time runs out while down 28. Passer rating doesn't know the difference. QBR does.

- QB feels pressure and scrambles out of the pocket to throw the ball away and not lose yards vs taking the sack. Passer rating punishes the incompletion but not the sack. QBR quantifies that not losing yardage was the better play.

- QB fumbles the ball on the 5 yard line vs running it in for a touchdown. There is no difference in passer rating, but QBR quantified the massive difference.

- One QB throws for 250 yards with 60% completion, 3 touchdowns, and 1 interception against the worst defense in the country. Another QB does the same thing against the best defense in the country. Passer rating does not know the difference. QBR does.

So again, anybody that uses passer rating over QBR is almost 40 years behind and has no clue what they're talking about.

I can almost guarantee @WichitaSooner goes radiosilent here, as is typical when real data/discussion is being had. There truly is no basis to say that Arnold is comparable to Mateer, our defense isn't elite, that we will only win 6 or 7 games this year, that USC is better, Hardy dominates every team, or any of his other countless bad takes/incorrect predictions this year. He will instead resort to grammar complaints, personal attacks, completely unrelated sarcasm, or most likely in this situation -- silence.

It's like when people want to look at total yards or really even points per game, instead of offensive and defensive efficiency stats.

Too many variables and different styles and paces, and too many different levels of quality of opponent to just use counting stats.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

QBR is just a bunch of mumbo jumbo. GIve me actual stats instead of this confusing mess that relies on computers. Sometimes, most of the time, simpler is better.
I would venture to guess that if you sorted by passer rating and then sorted by qbr, the passer rating would reflect more accurately who the best qbs in the game are

Degrees of success on each play

So how does QBR actually work?

For each play, QBR begins by asking: How successful was the play for the team, given its context?

Context for each play includes the down, yards to go for a first down, distance to the end zone and time remaining in the half. All of these factors can be used before the ball is snapped to estimate the future net score advantage the team currently on offense can expect. This estimate is known as "expected points.” After the play, the change in those factors lead to a change (positive or negative) to the team’s net point advantage. That change in the expected points caused by the outcome of the play represents the play’s value, or its Expected Points Added (EPA), given all the context.

When a team fails to convert on third down, struggles in the red zone, takes a lot of sacks or turns the ball over, it generally registers as negative EPA for the offense. But not all turnovers are created equal: A Hail Mary interception at the end of the half is not as impactful as one in the middle of the second quarter –- and EPA knows that.

Division of credit

EPA provides the context for every play and also holds the key to separating the quarterback’s impact from his teammates’. For all plays in which a quarterback is involved -– passes, rushes, sacks, penalties, fumbles, etc. -– the team-level EPA is calculated and then divided among a quarterback and his teammates. In other words, was the play successful and how much of that success is a result of a quarterback’s skill?

For example, Rodgers’ longest completion against the Redskins was a 34-yarder to James Jones in the second quarter, but he could have gained those yards through the air or on a short screen that was broken for a long gain. He also could have completed the pass when under duress or thrown it from a clean pocket. In all of those scenarios, Rodgers’ level of skill differs, and the credit he receives for the 34-yard gain (or in this case, plus-2.0 EPA) should differ as well.

That means on completed passes, the EPA is divided among the quarterback, his receivers and the offensive line based on how far the ball travels in the air, what percentage of the yards were gained after the catch (compared to how many yards after catch are expected) and whether the quarterback was under pressure. This division of credit is based on statistical analysis of thousands upon thousands of NFL plays. In this sense, QBR knows that Cousins was helped by his receiver, who gained fewer yards after the catch than expected given where he caught the ball, but hurt by his offensive line.

The details of every play (air yards, drops, pressures, etc.) are charted by a team of trained analysts in the ESPN Stats & Information Group. Every play of every game is tracked by at least two different analysts to provide the most accurate representation of how each play occurred.

Before moving on to the next play, QBR asks one more question: Did this play come in garbage time?

As we know, amassing yards and points in a blowout does not tell you too much about a quarterback’s true skill. When the game is out of reach, which is measured by a team’s win probability at the start of the play, a quarterback receives less credit than on an otherwise “normal” play. Unlike the initial version of QBR released in 2011, plays are no longer up-weighted for “clutch situations,” but we felt it was important to keep the down-weighting feature.