March is all about match-ups, "predictions" to make the Final Four are pointless without having a bracket to look over. I would argue someone like Arizona or North Carolina's "A" game is better than OU's, which I think is somewhere in the top 12-15. You have to factor in everyone else's best performance as well. With that said, OU is a perennial Sweet 16 potential team, their best looks really good, but have tendency to sleep walk through a lot of games.
As for Texas, them making or missing the tournament is not going to have an effect on OU's S-curve position. Any victory @ISU, vs. KU or in the Big XII tournament trumps UT's demise.