OSU is in trouble

[MI Sooner]

OSU does not make it at 7-11 without winning the conference tournament.
They basically have to go 5-0 to get an at-large. 4-1 and they are probably on the wrong side of the bubble. They were 43 in the RPI before their loss to Baylor.

That said, I don't think they're going 5-0 or 4-1.

Remember, as of today, OSU is 1-6 against the top 5 teams in the Big 12.

Bump. Palm has them back in the field after their win at home over Texas Tech. Doesn't mean they'd actually make it, but if Palm has them in now, no way would they be on the bubble (let alone the wrong side of it) if they finish 3-1. If they beat TCU, KSU, and either ISU or KU, they'd be solidly in. If they finish 4-0, they'd likely be sitting around a 5 seed.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Bump. Palm has them back in the field after their win at home over Texas Tech. Doesn't mean they'd actually make it, but if Palm has them in now, no way would they be on the bubble (let alone the wrong side of it) if they finish 3-1. If they beat TCU, KSU, and either ISU or KU, they'd be solidly in. If they finish 4-0, they'd likely be sitting around a 5 seed.

a 5 seed? you are high

 

[hoopsaustin]

a 5 seed? you are high

SOOO high

 

[MI Sooner]

a 5 seed? you are high

How about this.

If OSU finishes the regular season 4-0, we'll look the average projected seed of the subsequently released Palm/Lunardi Bracketologies.

I said "around a five." We'll set the over/under at 6. If it's a 6, we push. If it's better than a 6 (5.5 or lower), you pay me $100.

If it's worse than 6 (6.5 or higher), I pay you $100.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

How about this.

If OSU finishes the regular season 4-0, we'll look the average projected seed of the subsequently released Palm/Lunardi Bracketologies.

I said "around a five." We'll set the over/under at 6. If it's a 6, we push. If it's better than a 6 (5.5 or lower), you pay me $100.

If it's worse than 6 (6.5 or higher), I pay you $100.

Nope. If I was a betting man I would take that bet in a heartbeat. But I don't bet on sports and I sure as hell am not going to start by betting on OSU!

 

[hoopsaustin]

^^ bet will be a non-starter cuz osu isnt going 4-0 but for refs intervention for the media love child marcus dumb

 

[WaymanFan]

If they finish 4-0, they'd likely be sitting around a 5 seed.

That could happen if they finish 4-0 AND win the Big XII Tournament. In a separate thread, we're talking about the likelihood of OU getting a #3 seed if they run the table. Therefore, it's not out of the realm of possibility that OSU can climb to as high as a #5. However, if OSU goes 4-0 but bows out quickly in the conference tourney, I see them as a #7 seed at best.

 

[stormspencer]

How about this.

If OSU finishes the regular season 4-0, we'll look the average projected seed of the subsequently released Palm/Lunardi Bracketologies.

I said "around a five." We'll set the over/under at 6. If it's a 6, we push. If it's better than a 6 (5.5 or lower), you pay me $100.

If it's worse than 6 (6.5 or higher), I pay you $100.

In Bracket Matrix, most of the bracketologists have them in as of now at an 11 or 12. If somehow osu managed to win out (4-0)...I think they would be safely in the tournament, but their ceiling would be a 7 or 8 seed. It's extremely difficult to make a 5 or 6 seed jump in two weeks. But in regards to this thread, people that think OSU needs to win out to just make the tournament....are fooling themselves. I think they are safely in the tournament if they get to 8-10 in conference. If they finish at 7-11, then this is where it becomes interesting. At 7-11, then IMO they would have to win at least two in the Big 12 tournament (get to the semifinals on Friday) to make it in. Remember 68 teams now make the tournament and the bubble seems to be very soft this year. Thus you're going to be seeing some teams that make it in this year that wouldn't have necessarily made it in previous years.

 

[MI Sooner]

They'd have 8 losses with a decent schedule, a hot finish, and 3 of those losses could be discounted due to them being without Smart. Look at the teams one the 6 line (we're one of them from what I've seen). If we lose at KU and win the rest, I don't expect to drop. We'd have 8 losses and a comparable schedule to OSU.

I don't think their regular season ceiling is a 7 or an 8. Obviously, if they perform better in the conference tournament, they'll improve their seed. If they do poorly, it will drop. That's why I wanted to use an average of projections after the (possible, but unlikely) 4-0 finish instead of the actual bracket, which will be impacted by the conference tournament.

 

[oSuJeff97]

I think it's simple, barring some miracle run in the Big 12 tournament.

If OSU finishes 8-10 (or 9-9 obviously), we're in; 7-11, we're out, regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament.

I think people way overvalue what happens in conference tournaments, unless there are literally two bubble teams playing each other with almost identical profiles, and both are on the "last four in/last four out" line.

We may end up getting that this year with OSU and Baylor, but generally I don't think the whole, "have to win x games in the conference tournament" ever seems to matter much, at least in terms of "in vs. out."

The vast majority of the time, teams in major conferences are either in or out before they get to conference tournament time.

 

[BigTime]

I think it's simple, barring some miracle run in the Big 12 tournament.

If OSU finishes 8-10 (or 9-9 obviously), we're in; 7-11, we're out, regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament.

I think people way overvalue what happens in conference tournaments, unless there are literally two bubble teams playing each other with almost identical profiles, and both are on the "last four in/last four out" line.

We may end up getting that this year with OSU and Baylor, but generally I don't think the whole, "have to win x games in the conference tournament" ever seems to matter much, at least in terms of "in vs. out."

The vast majority of the time, teams in major conferences are either in or out before they get to conference tournament time.

I agree with this post!

Don't faint, Jeff.

 

[JBaker]

They'd have 8 losses with a decent schedule, a hot finish, and 3 of those losses could be discounted due to them being without Smart. Look at the teams one the 6 line (we're one of them from what I've seen). If we lose at KU and win the rest, I don't expect to drop. We'd have 8 losses and a comparable schedule to OSU.

I don't think their regular season ceiling is a 7 or an 8. Obviously, if they perform better in the conference tournament, they'll improve their seed. If they do poorly, it will drop. That's why I wanted to use an average of projections after the (possible, but unlikely) 4-0 finish instead of the actual bracket, which will be impacted by the conference tournament.

8? You realize OSU already has 10 losses, right?

 

[DenverSooner]

8? You realize OSU already has 10 losses, right?

More importantly OSU still has to go to TCU, play KU and KSU at home and go to ISU. If OSU wins all four of those games they clearly deserve to be in the Tournament but I think they will do well to split and 3 wins would be really good. I think OSU is going to make it tough on the committee if they are 19-12 going into the Big XII tournament. What do you do with WVU if they finish 9-9 in Big XII play and OSU is 7-11? Do you take OSU and leave out WVU?

 

[MI Sooner]

I think it's simple, barring some miracle run in the Big 12 tournament.

If OSU finishes 8-10 (or 9-9 obviously), we're in; 7-11, we're out, regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament.

I think people way overvalue what happens in conference tournaments, unless there are literally two bubble teams playing each other with almost identical profiles, and both are on the "last four in/last four out" line.

We may end up getting that this year with OSU and Baylor, but generally I don't think the whole, "have to win x games in the conference tournament" ever seems to matter much, at least in terms of "in vs. out."

The vast majority of the time, teams in major conferences are either in or out before they get to conference tournament time.

I'll bet you my $200 against your $100 that OSU makes the tournament if they go finish 7-11 and made the finals of the conference tournament.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

I'll bet you my $200 against your $100 that OSU makes the tournament if they go finish 7-11 and made the finals of the conference tournament.

No team will make it at 7-11. That would be absurd and setting a presidency.


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[MI Sooner]

So we have a bet? I'll bet my 2k against your 1k.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

I'm not betting 1k. I'll bet $100 that osu doesn't make it if they are 7-11


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[steverocks35]

It would not surprise me if, due to the Marcus Smart hype, the committee looks at the three games he missed and just throws them out (even though they lost the previous four in a row with him).

 

[Vinny78]

They will NOT make it at 7-11, at 8-10 very iffy - wouldn't want to be a fan on Selection Sunday with that record.

 

[Vinny78]

KU will hammer them Saturday and ISU will as well. KSU in Stoolwater is a toss up. 7-11 at best and NIT, lol.