I think it's simple, barring some miracle run in the Big 12 tournament.
If OSU finishes 8-10 (or 9-9 obviously), we're in; 7-11, we're out, regardless of what happens in the Big 12 tournament.
I think people way overvalue what happens in conference tournaments, unless there are literally two bubble teams playing each other with almost identical profiles, and both are on the "last four in/last four out" line.
We may end up getting that this year with OSU and Baylor, but generally I don't think the whole, "have to win x games in the conference tournament" ever seems to matter much, at least in terms of "in vs. out."
The vast majority of the time, teams in major conferences are either in or out before they get to conference tournament time.