OU-Arizona Statistical Plus/Minus Review

DSMok1

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OU vs. Arizona Statistical Plus/Minus

Another complete team effort from OU. This makes 3 good, solid performances on the season (Mt. St. Mary's domination is the 3rd). Five players played very well.

(Boxscore)
OU Statistical +/-
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Crocker, Tony		9.4	33	5.3
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	9.0	34	5.2
Davis, Cade		9.0	33	5.0
Warren, Willie		5.4	33	3.0
Gallon, Tiny		4.9	25	2.1
Hardrick, Kyle		5.8	1	0.1
Willis, Ray		-18.4	4	-1.3
Gerber, Beau		-88.4	1	-1.5
Franklin, T.J.		-88.5	1	-1.5
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-20.0	6	-2.0
Wright, Ryan		-12.2	14	-2.9
Pledger, Steven		-11.8	15	-3.0
Arizona Statistical +/-
Code:
Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Williams, Derrick	18.8	18	5.8
Wise, Nic		4.2	29	2.1
Judkins, Garland	10.1	8	1.4
Shumpert, D.J.		13.5	5	1.1
Wise, Dondre		13.3	5	1.1
Fogg, Kyle		2.1	23	0.8
Horne, Jamelle		1.7	26	0.8
Natyazhko, Kyryl	-2.3	13	-0.5
Jacobson, Alex		-12.6	11	-2.4
Hill, Solomon		-9.6	25	-4.1
Lavender, Brendon	-17.3	23	-6.8
Jones, Lamont		-33.0	14	-7.9

I discovered a flaw in my calculations; SPM as calculated by the formula is in points per 100 possessions. A typical game has ~68 possessions. So TC, here, was worth 9 points per 100 possessions, or about 6.3 points/40 minute game. When I realized that, I had to change the adjustment algorithm to sum the contributions to the point margin, so the numbers may look a little different.

TMG had his first exceptional game. Ten points, 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals--and 0 turnovers. Very clean and solid. Tony Crocker had another yeoman effort--hopefully that becomes a trend! Solid scoring, good rebounding, an assist, a block, 2 steals... and no turnovers. Well done.

Cade Davis also had another solid game. I think OU is discovering who it can trust! Cade, TC, and usually Pledger are consistent. Three steals and 0 turnovers for Cade.

Willie was excellent in the scoring department; his numbers are held back by 4 TOs (if he had 0 turnovers, his SPM would have been ~15). Tiny also played very solidly.

On the downside, Pledger and Wright had bad games. Few points, few rebounds, no blocks or steals. Almost invisible on the floor.

For Arizona, Derick Williams played a splendid 18 minutes; Nic Wise played decently. The rest did nicely in garbage time or stunk it up the whole game. Lamont Jones! Wow, look at that stat line! 0-4 from the floor, 3 TOs, all in just 14 minutes. That would have been impressive if he could have kept that up the whole game! Unfortunately, he didn't get the chance...

Through eight games, it is looking like there are 4 very good rotation players, and then some off-and-on freshmen. TMG and Tiny are coming along, though!

Here are the totals through 8 games, with the minutes per game listed:
OU Statistical +/- Eight Game Totals
Code:
Name			SPM	Min	Contribution
Willie Warren		6.1	28.0	23.6
Cade Davis		6.3	25.3	20.0
Tony Crocker		4.5	32.0	17.2
Steven Pledger		2.5	24.0	8.8
Kyle Hardrick		-1.0	0.4	-0.1
T.J. Franklin		-21.6	0.8	-2.3
Ray Willis		-8.9	2.1	-2.6
Tiny Gallon		-1.4	25.5	-2.7
Beau Gerber		-65.9	0.4	-3.7
Andrew Fitzgerald	-3.5	10.1	-4.7
Orlando Allen		-8.1	5.0	-5.6
Ryan Wright		-3.4	14.8	-7.3
Tommy Mason-Griffin	-2.3	31.9	-10.1

Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) is a method of estimating each player's impact from the box score statistics. SPM is listed in points above the average player playing per 40 minutes--so if that player was replaced by an average player for 40 minutes, SPM is the difference in the final margin. The total of all player's contributions will sum to the actual scoring margin (each team's total will equal half of the overall margin). The original method was outlined by Dan Rosenbaum at 82games.com; recently additional factors were added by Neil Paine at Basketball-Reference.com. I previously compiled the complete 2008-2009 NCAA numbers on this forum.
 
Thanks for putting these together, DSMOK1. This now makes two games in a row in which 5 Sooners that played major minutes have made it into the "+" side of the contribution ratings.
 
Derrick Williams is going to be a fine player for the Cats.

I expect TMG's numbers to continue to SPM to continue to improve. He is starting to gain swagger, breaking people down, playing faster. That is bad news for our opponents.
 
I think TMG will be in the positive before the year is over.

EDIT: to clarify I did mean year and not season.
 
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