OU vs. Centenary Statistical Plus/Minus Review

[DSMok1]

OU vs. Centenary Statistical Plus/Minus

Two dominant player-performances last night: Crocker and Gallon were simply splendid. Crocker played a nearly flawless game. 33 points, 13 rebounds, 3 blocks, 1 steal... are you kidding me? Wow! And Tiny was just about as good. Eight, yes, EIGHT offensive rebounds, 16 points efficiently, 3 blocks, and 2 steals. Amazing. With those performances, the rest of the team could just stand back and watch.

(Boxscore)
OU Statistical +/-

Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
Crocker, Tony		24.4	33	13.5
Gallon, Tiny		20.7	29	10.1
Warren, Willie		6.6	29	3.2
Gerber, Beau		137.2	1	2.3
Mason-Griffin, Tommy	1.4	31	0.7
Allen, Orlando		6.9	3	0.3
Wright, Ryan		-5.8	10	-1.0
Franklin, T		-20.6	3	-1.0
Fitzgerald, Andrew	-14.5	8	-1.9
Pledger, Steven		-9.2	17	-2.6
Willis, Ray		-19.3	10	-3.2
Davis, Cade		-19.1	26	-8.3

Centenary Statistical +/-

Player			SPM	Min	Contribution
PEREZ, David		1.9	33	1.1
MACIEL, Pedro		1.4	22	0.5
STARRING, Daman		0.5	38	0.3
SWARTZ, David		-3.7	20	-1.2
BONHAM, Jerrald		-3.4	22	-1.3
NAKWAASAH, Maxx		-6.1	24	-2.5
MARSEILLE, Matt		-9.8	19	-3.1
TUBNER, Roman		-15.8	22	-5.8

Willie played a decent game as well; he only turned the ball over once, grabbed 3 steals, and dished out 4 assists. However, he didn't score very well or get many rebounds. TMG played a similar game--okay.

Most of the subs played bad games, though Orlando Allen did nicely in his 3 minutes. Cade played very poorly--hew was almost invisible on the box score.

For Centenary, there were no outstanding players in this game. They were rather outclassed.


As a team, OU has a top 50 offense but a still-weak defense. Centenary scored almost a point per possession... not that good for OU. OU's problem? They don't force turnovers, and their opponents shoot above average from the floor.


Here are the totals through 9 games, with the minutes per game listed:
OU Statistical +/- Nine Game Totals

Name			SPM	Min	Contribution
Tony Crocker		6.7	32.1	30.6
Willie Warren		6.2	28.1	26.8
Cade Davis		3.4	25.3	11.7
Tiny Gallon		1.4	25.9	7.4
Steven Pledger		1.6	23.2	6.2
Kyle Hardrick		-1.0	0.3	-0.1
Beau Gerber		-15.1	0.4	-1.4
T.J. Franklin		-21.3	1.0	-3.3
Orlando Allen		-7.1	4.8	-5.3
Ray Willis		-12.7	3.0	-5.9
Andrew Fitzgerald	-4.5	9.9	-6.6
Ryan Wright		-3.6	14.2	-8.3
Tommy Mason-Griffin	-1.9	31.8	-9.4

Tony Crocker has taken over the position as best player on the team so far this year. He is really playing well! Willie is still doing well; Cade has faded a bit, but Tiny is coming on strong. TMG should soon get out of the basement as he improves.

Statistical Plus/Minus (SPM) is a method of estimating each player's impact from the box score statistics. SPM is listed in points above the average player playing per 100 possessions--so if that player was replaced by an average player for 100 possessions, SPM is the difference in the final margin. The total of all player's contributions will sum to the actual scoring margin (each team's total will equal half of the overall margin). The original method was outlined by Dan Rosenbaum at 82games.com; recently additional factors were added by Neil Paine at Basketball-Reference.com. I previously compiled the complete 2008-2009 NCAA numbers on this forum.​

 

[uberjamb]

Looks like Gerber needs more minutes. He is a statistical monster.

 

[DSMok1]

Looks like Gerber needs more minutes. He is a statistical monster.

:ez-roll:

Yeah, he's showing great improvement! He was -88.5 in 1 minute last game!

He scored 4 points in 1 minute, and grabbed a rebound. If he kept it up through the whole game, he'd score 160 points and grab 40 rebounds!! Put him in! :gerber

 

[BigTime]

DSM,

Thanks as always. How did the Sooners grade out defensively during the first half? I think the team all but quit during the second half. There is no excuse for that but I know it has to be hard when it is a dead gym and you are playing against a far inferior team.

 

[uberjamb]

I think we are saving Gerber for the Texas game.

 

[DenverSooner]

I am not sure what your plus minus really means but it is interesting to me that Willies' "bad game" looks pretty solid on your plus minus.

 

[DSMok1]

I am not sure what your plus minus really means but it is interesting to me that Willies' "bad game" looks pretty solid on your plus minus.

Willie has only had 1 game with a net minus: the VCU 3-14 game he was a -18.5 for a -9.7 contribution (in other words, he just about lost that game by himself). Other than that, every game has been positive. Here are Willie's numbers, game-by-game:

SPM	Min	Contrib	Rank on Team
17.0	32	11.0	1
10.3	33	5.1	1
-17.0	32	-9.7	10
18.1	37	11.2	1
1.4	32	0.8	4
0.0	0	0.0	0
5.5	25	2.1	3
5.4	33	3.0	4
6.6	29	3.2	3

Willie and Crocker are playing the best; Crocker has been more up-and-down.

 

[OsoonerU]

I absolutely love your posts DSMok1. This thread is the first thing I look for after every game.

I am a baseball fanatic, so I love to break down the numbers to see what's really going on. I don't understand these formulas nearly as well as some of the baseball ones I look over, so I have some work to do.

 

[RonMexico]

I absolutely love your posts DSMok1. This thread is the first thing I look for after every game.

same here. thanks again.

 

[DSMok1]

Adjusting for Opponents

Hey, guys! I finally figured out how to adjust for the opponent, so the credit is actually split properly. We finally have enough data this year to adjust for opponent; the KenPom.com ratings are starting to round into shape.

Here is what I realized: the two team's SPM contribution sums must equal the total margin in the game. However, SPM should be comparing the players in the game to the NCAA-average player, not just each other. So what I did was first compare each team's performance in the game to the NCAA average and then sum the players to that.

For instance: OU beat Nicholls St. by 21. What would the average NCAA team do? Beat Nicholls St. by 21. Nicholls St. lost to OU by 21. What would the average NCAA team do? Lose to OU by about 6. The result? Split the difference: OU gets credit for 3 points above average; Nicholls St gets credit for 18 points below average.

What this does is allow the SPM's to be calculated approximately compared to NCAA average, rather than the average player in the game. This also allows us to compare individual performances between games!

So what was the best single-game performance by an OU player this year? Here are the top 8:

	Opp		SPM	Min	Contribution	
TC	Centenary	25.5	33	14.1
WW	San Diego	18.0	37	11.2
WW	Mt. St. Mary's	16.7	32	10.8
Tiny	Centenary	21.7	29	10.6
Cade	Nicholls St.	20.5	31	9.7
TC	Arkansas	16.7	36	9.2
Tiny	Mt. St. Mary's	20.6	22	9.2	
Pledger	VCU		15.4	27	7.4

And here are the games this season, with the scoring efficiency (points/100 possessions) better or worse than the average NCAA team, for each team:

			OU	Opp
Mount St. Mary's	16.0	-13.7
Louisiana Monroe	9.3	-8.9
Virginia Commonwealth	-0.4	17.9
San Diego		-10.1	7.9
Houston			4.3	13.6
Nicholls St.		5.4	-29.0
Arkansas		22.8	-9.8
Arizona			18.8	-6.1
Centenary		19.8	-16.3

OU's best game was Arkansas, closely followed by Centenary. OU has only played 1 really bad game this year; the rest they were at least about average.

In the last 3 games, OU has played excellently. A 20 points/100 possessions margin would put them at about 35th so far this year; over a season it would put them in the top 10.

 

[DSMok1]

DSM,

Thanks as always. How did the Sooners grade out defensively during the first half? I think the team all but quit during the second half. There is no excuse for that but I know it has to be hard when it is a dead gym and you are playing against a far inferior team.

I don't have halftime stats, or I could tell you. But I don't...