Ping Pong balls and Blake Griffin

Washington...Odds of first pick: 17.8%

Wow...remember when Gilbert Arenas was a decent player? Well Washington better hope he can get healthy fast because they are going to pay him $96 mil over the next five seasons. That is major money committed to a guy who probably isn't worth it healthy, let alone after all the problems he's been having. And don't forget about Antawn Jamison either. He's 32 years old and is on the books for three more years at about $13 mil per. Neither of those deals is tradeable right now and Jaun Dixon (who doesn't even make $1 mil) is the only contract coming off the books this year for the Wiz. So as it stands right now, Washington is going to be over the luxury tax next season no matter what (just like they were this year). Second worst team in the league and paying the tax...yikes...

Caron Butler's deal is actually pretty good (2 more years at about $10 mil per), but unfortunately that probably makes him the most likely guy to get traded. They just have a bunch of contracts with players that are washed up or just plain unproductive: Etan Thomas, Mike James, Brendan Heywood, Darius Songaila and DeShawn Stephenson just aren't any good. Nick Young is on his rookie deal, but I can't imagine them re-signing him. The only attractive guys on the team going forward are JeVale McGee (who is on his rookie deal) and Andray Blatche (who they actually have a great contract with).

I think things could eventually work out for Blake here. Arenas has to get back to his old self if they are going to have a chance, but put Blake with Blatche and McGee in the frontcourt and you've got a really athletic, physically imposing group there. But it will be a couple years in coming if it works out. Caron Butler is not a 2 guard and Antawn Jamison is not a 3. Blake would probably come off the bench for his first season, at least until the team figures out what to do with those three big contracts. Down the road it could be interesting though (but probably not).
 
I like Blatche and I like McGee. Caron Butler is a good player, but I think Arenas and Jamison are volume shooters.
 
elmocarp said:
Andray Blatche (who they actually have a great contract with)
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Blatche getting busted for soliciting an undercover cop during the summer of his free agency probably saved the Wizards millions of dollars. I love the NBA.
 
LA Clippers...Odds of first pick: 17.7%

My first thought when considering the Clippers was that it would be the worst place for him to go, and there is plenty of reason to think that. Zach Randolph is quite possibly the worst teammate in the NBA...worst attitude, worst work habits, worst in game performance...just terrible. Baron Davis is a bad guy to have in a bad situation because he is so moody and immature, but more than that, his style of play just isn't very coachable. Its really hard to have him playing at his best while the rest of the team is involved and interested. Its always been a problem his whole career. Maybe as he nears the end he can finally figure out a way to fit in better, but my guess is he just doesn't love the game enough to really care.

So looking at those two guys, looking at their monstrous contracts and considering that Mike Dunleavy is somehow still employed I figured the Clips would be the absolutely last place I would want Blake to land. But looking at it more closely, I think they might actually have something going there (stay with me).

First of all, all of this is predicated on two major qualifiers: 1. Mike Dunleavy can't be coach/gm for another season. They have to get rid of him. 2. The young players on the team somehow survive starting out their careers with Zach Randolph and Baron Davis.

All right, here's the deal. If they drafted Blake then they would have a young core of players at the 2,3 and 4 that would be just about as good as any in the league with Eric Gordon, Al Thornton and Blake Griffin. And those three guys really would compliment each other well going forward. Gordon would be the perimeter guy and game closer, Blake would be the low post scorer and interior presence and Thornton really is a good third option because he can score without plays being run for him. I would really like those guys a lot if I were a Clipper fan. So the next question would have to be, "Well could you sign all three of them?" Yep, actually you could. Thornton's extension would start in the 11/12 season, the year Randolph's $17 mil would come off the books. Gordon's extension would start in the 12/13 season, the year Kaman's $12 mil would come off the books. And Blake's extension would start in the 13/14 season, the year Baron Davis's $15 mil would come off the books.

If they could get those guys to buy into what they are doing and build around them (big if as long as Dunleavy is there), then they could use draft picks to groom bigs to take over for Camby and Kaman down the road and they could probably get a pass-first point guard for a good contract either through the draft or trade of free agency. Now, all of this depends on the Clippers not being the Clippers, so its probably unlikely. But if they could just strike gold with whoever they replace Dunleavy with, I really think it could be interesting. Add to that playing in a market like LA, and I'm not so sure Blake couldn't have a great career there.

(did I just say that?)
 
Zach Randolph is quite possibly the worst teammate in the NBA...worst attitude, worst work habits, worst in game performance...just terrible. Baron Davis is a bad guy to have in a bad situation because he is so moody and immature, but more than that, his style of play just isn't very coachable. Its really hard to have him playing at his best while the rest of the team is involved and interested.
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I would love to punch both of those guys in the face. I think I can take Randolph, he'd probably be too lazy to fight. Baron Davis looks like he has quick hands and is from the same gang as Paul Pierce.
 
Yeah, the Clippers one requires an enormous leap of faith. Donald Sterling is the problem. He doesn't hold his executives accountable. Elgin Baylor was with the team for twenty-something years despite building one of the worst resumes in the history of NBA executives. It didn't help that Sterling wouldn't open his wallet for the longest time, then Baylor and Dunleavy just went crazy with his money. Then again, they're not in that bad of shape right now even with Randolph's, Kaman's, and Davis' contracts. If they had a semi-competent GM, all they would have to do the next few years is just bite the bullet and eat those contracts while accumulating lottery picks. However, my suspicion is that Dunleavy will still be around, and a summer from now he trades Randolph's expiring contract for a player or two with horrible long-term contracts because he tries to hit home runs.
 
DirtyMess said:
I would love to punch both of those guys in the face. I think I can take Randolph, he'd probably be too lazy to fight. Baron Davis looks like he has quick hands and is from the same gang as Paul Pierce.
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Randolph is lazy, but he's not too lazy to fight. He punched out Ruben Patterson when they were teammates, and he's had incidents with players from opposing teams.

I wouldn't want to punch Baron Davis. His attitude on the court can be really bad, but he seems like an okay guy in real life who happens to be a horrible teammate.
 
Oklahoma City Thunder...Odds of first pick: 11.9%

Ahh, our beloved Thunder. I hope everyone realizes how unbelievably lucky we are to have gotten the team that was run by Sam Presti. Seriously, I still hear people whining about how it sucks that we got this team when we should have gotten the Hornets and Chris Paul. Well, CP3 is great and all, but that team is going nowhere fast and just watch them try to dump every contract they can over the next year. The NBA isn't like a college team, where you just bring in as many good players as you can. You have to invest in the right players, at the right times and you have to stay in control of your contracts. No team in the league is in better shape with their books than the Thunder are. They don't have anything close to a bad contract to deal with (Collison is their highest paid player right now at about $6.5), they have drafted their three primary players (Durant, Green and Westbrook) to build around and have them on rookie deals right now, and they have negotiating leverage with all of their complimentary players except maybe Kristic. So guys like D.J. White and Kyle Weaver are still on their rookie deals for the next three years, and guys like Thabo Sefolosha and Shaun Livingston are playing to get extensions.

So Presti can watch the team, see how they fit together and decide who stays and who goes and is probably able to re-sign whoever he wants for good numbers. Kristic is the one I really wonder about. He has a player option year after next season for about $5.8 mil and its hard to imagine that he couldn't get more than that elsewhere. I wonder where he fits in Presti's plans going forward, as I am guessing he will be worth about $8-9 mil as a 26 year old free agent big man.

So where would Blake fit on this roster? Well, he would provide them with two things they are really lacking right now: a consistent, night-in night-out double digit rebounder and a guy who could command a double team on the block. Ironically, I'm not sure how important those things are for the development of this team. The team does a good job of getting into the lane and I would expect Durant, Green, Westbrook, and even White and Livingston to be able to develop and contribute post ups. As far as rebounding goes, it would help to have one guy to depend on consistently, but the Thunder were actually one of the better rebounding teams in the league last year. The things the Thunder really seems to be lacking are outside shooting and interior defense, and Blake isn't going to help either of those.

So lets look at the lineup and figure out where he fits. I think we all know that he isn't going to play the five, and we also know that Durant nor Green is going to play up at the two. So ultimately I think Presti has to decide if Green and Durant playing together in the frontcourt is going to work or not. I am not sure it is, personally, and it is the one big question that I think is hanging over the future for this team. You have the kind of chemistry between your star players that you dream about. KD, Green and Russ really are best friends. That does so much for your team culture and locker room, not to mention the way it helps in signability when its time to talk contracts. Look, all three guys are going to sign their extensions with OKC, thats how it works. But what happens when you can only keep three of the four and you have to keep everyone motivated to stay and play for you? And what happens with Blake when he comes in as the "new guy" and starts taking minutes from Green? Its really interesting to try to project. Ultimately I think you have to draft Blake and make it work but it isn't the perfect fit most Okies make it out to be.
 
The chemistry thing is huge for OKC. All of these hypothetical scenarios involving trading Green to get Blake Griffin are bad ideas IMO because that completely changes lockerroom dynamics when you ship Durant's best friend on the team for the local kid. I think the most important thing for the Thunder is to keep Durant happy and get him to sign an extension a year from now. I think Green can be extended at a reasonable price, especially given the NBA's new economic climate, such that you could justify making him a sixth man. He's not a full-time PF, and there aren't many minutes available at SF, so I think he could be utilized as a combo forward off the bench.

I'm not sure about Krstic either. He seemed really rusty, then he picked it up a little offensively once he got into the starting lineup after the all-star break. He had a few really big games with Durant out of the lineup in early March, but overall he didn't shoot the ball as well as I expected, and he's never been much of a rebounder, shot blocker, or defender. Unless he makes huge strides next season, I don't see him getting $8-9 million per year unless one of the teams with a ton of cap room in 2010 whiffs on the big names and throws a ton of money at Krstic as an overreaction. I realize that there's a premium on big men, but I don't know if teams are going to be as willing to shell out quite as much money as they have in years past. Right now I would guess that he'll get something along the lines of the mid-level exception.

I don't have a lot of faith any of those guys on the current Thunder roster to develop a post game. I didn't see the team play much when they were in Seattle, but I remember reading in a scouting report somewhere that PJ would run post-ups for Green, and it didn't work well. Obviously, we haven't had a chance to see what White can do. Livingston, a shell of his former self athletically, still intrigues me. In his limited time with the Thunder, it looked like he had really improved his mid-range game, and in the home finale in particular, they kept throwing it to Livingston to exploit the size mismatches with Felton and Augustin. With that said, I don't expect him to be the answer as a 2-guard (which looks to be his position in OKC since he almost never ran the point in his games here).
 
I also agree on the Presti sentiments. I'd rather have the Thunder with Presti than the Hornets with Jeff Bower. Bower makes the type of moves that a fan would make. He makes signings and trades that aren't egregiously bad on the surface, but they're done without any long-term planfulness, so that a few years down the road, the team is financially handicapped for years. Someone needs to tell Bower that you don't have to use your mid-level exception every year.
 
exactly smash, Green isnt the full-borne PF but would be a lethal combo player for a playoff team.

still, aside from Durant OKC has no set pieces and certainly no one worth saying "well, we shouldnt draft ______ b/c we have _______". Westbrook is a nice player, again like Green a key cog on a playoff team. not necessarily a PG nor a SG.

so aside from SF, the Thunder should draft for every position b/c every one needs improvement.

BG (obviously), Harden, Thabeet or DeRozan would all be great additions to OKC.
 
Minnesota Timberwolves...Odds of first pick: 7.6%

Well, the Timberwolves look like a team that could be headed in the right direction. They have two untouchables on the roster in Al Jefferson, who is clearly the premiere young big man in the league who they have locked up for the next four years, and Kevin Love, who managed to have a fantastic second half to his rookie season and they will be paying rookie money for the next three years. Other than those two, they could have the entire roster turned over after next season (except for Telfair, who has a player option for one more year that he may or may not exercise). But Mike Miller, Craig Smith, Randy Foye, Ryan Gomes, Brian Cardinal, Corey Brewer, and Mark Madsen...literally everyone, either comes off the books after next season or has a team option. So Minnesota could be major players in the 2010 sweepstakes (though its hard to imagine them drawing too many elite free agents) or re-sign the guys they want or whatever. I'm not sure what the market will be like with the economy like it is, but its hard to imagine them paying Gomes too much more than the $3.8 mil he'll make next year. Foye is the really interesting guy, he seems to be a guy they like but he is sort of a poor-man's Ben Gordon. Hard to know how you determine his value without it going to free agency (much like Gordon and the Bulls).

Anyway, basically the thing that makes Minnesota so interesting is that they don't really seem to have a place for Griffin. Considering their center and power forward look to be locked up for some time now and that their perimeter players look very, very uncertain, I don't see how they could take Blake and "make it work". I think they, along with Sacramento, seem like prime candidates to trade the pick for Rubio or another perimeter player in the draft. I just don't see how you plan to put either Love or Griffin on the bench for the next three seasons while you've got Telfair and Gomes starting. Keep in mind that Mike Miller is a very desirable trade piece in that he provides outside shooting and his contract (a hefty $9.8 mil) expires after next season. I would expect the Wolves to make some moves regardless, but especially if they get the top pick.
 
I have never understood why a team like Oklahoma City would not lose games at the end of the season to increase the odds. Why not play your subs and young guys for experience (play hard but if you lose, you lose). It seems to me it would be good for your team and nothing bad could come from it because you are not making the playoffs. I suspect they have some rules against this but if OKC had lost 5 more games they would have way better odds.
 
DenverSooner said:
I have never understood why a team like Oklahoma City would not lose games at the end of the season to increase the odds. Why not play your subs and young guys for experience (play hard but if you lose, you lose). It seems to me it would be good for your team and nothing bad could come from it because you are not making the playoffs. I suspect they have some rules against this but if OKC had lost 5 more games they would have way better odds.
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The lottery is fixed, so losing games at the end of the season does not increase your odds. Just sayin...
 
DenverSooner said:
I have never understood why a team like Oklahoma City would not lose games at the end of the season to increase the odds. Why not play your subs and young guys for experience (play hard but if you lose, you lose). It seems to me it would be good for your team and nothing bad could come from it because you are not making the playoffs. I suspect they have some rules against this but if OKC had lost 5 more games they would have way better odds.
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OKC's youngest players are also their best players, they need as much experience as they can get right now.
 
campbest said:
OKC's youngest players are also their best players, they need as much experience as they can get right now.
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This.

Also, the Thunder had several players that joined the team late in the season (Sefolosha, Shaun Livingston, DJ White--was on the team all year, but sat out most of the season), and the organization needed to get an idea of what kind of pieces those players could be and how they mesh with the team's core players so that Presti would have a better idea of how they address their needs this offseason.
 
The problem with the Clippers is Sterling, their owner. He doesn't care. He won't spend money to put together a good team, he just wants to make a little money every year.
 
TheLadiesMike said:
The problem with the Clippers is Sterling, their owner. He doesn't care. He won't spend money to put together a good team, he just wants to make a little money every year.
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That was a problem in the past, but Sterling has been willing to spend for the last several years. In 2003 he matched Elton Brand's $82 million offer sheet from Miami, and he was going to match Miami's offer sheet for Lamar Odom that same summer (6 years, $65 million), but Odom pleaded with the Clips not to match it because he didn't want to stay with them. He signed Baron Davis to an enormous deal last summer. He gave Chris Kaman and Corey Maggette enormous extensions several years ago.

The Clippers have been well above the minimum team salary threshold the last several years and have been willing to add salaries (i.e. absorbing Camby's contract this year without trading back any salary), but Mike Dunleavy (and Elgin Baylor before him) has no idea of how to assemble an NBA team.
 
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