On the plus side, there usually isn't a correlation between teams with strong conference tournament play and strong NCAA Tournament play or vice versa. It's hit-or-miss. Just look at us through the years. We got to the second weekend in 1999 and 2009 without winning a game in the conference tournament. It was vastly different in 2006 and 2013. Conversely, we had great tournament runs in 1998 and 2001 only to bow out in Round 1 of the NCAA Tourney. We also had great tournament runs in 2002 and 2003, and finished with 7 combined NCAA Tourney wins those two years. In other words, there is no consistent pattern.
There is one consistent statistic, though. Forgetting the conference tourney, we played terrible down the stretch in both 2006 and 2013, so when we laid an egg in the Dance, it wasn't much of a surprise. This year, we played our best ball down the stretch, so I would be genuinely surprised if we don't bring it next week.
I agree with Skyvue's overall assessment...and his optimism!