Thoughts on Bedlam

[jaymOU]

OSU is playing signficantly better than Round No. 1 of Bedlam and with the game being in Stillwater, it will be a tall task.

1) Mbaye and Osby have to use their athletic ability to create mismatches on the perimeter - which seems to be the weekly receipe for OU victory

2) Missing Hield's energy and scoring punch have been talked about but his defense being gone is what worries me. He is a strong on-ball defender and if memory serves spent most of the time guarding Marcus Smart in the first matchup. Smart was in foul trouble too, which helped. Who guards Smart? Nobody really can, but can OU make him work for points?

3) OSU's home court. OU has played well in spots on the road, but in the toughest places to play - Lawerence and Ames, they have not reponsded very well. Can the Sooners match OSU energy early?

4) Clark and Fitz. Two former starters who, I think, have to get double digits in scoring for OU to have a realistic chance. Funny, I think OU's bench might actually be the Sooners best way to win. Will Lon go "big" and have Clark, Mbaye and Osby in the game together?

It's just fun to have Bedlam actually be interesting again. Even my teenage sons are talking about the game - definately not like the old days, but progress.

 

[Boomer]

Ford finally has this team playing up to their potential. It's going to take us hitting our shots and them cold from the outside to pull off the win. We also need to dominate Jurick down low.

 

[AdaSooner]

I would feel a lot better about this game if Buddy was available. We'll definitely miss him on defense. He was one of the reasons Smart didn't have his usual game in Bedlam round one.

That said, Cousins is playing better now, so maybe he'll step up to fill the void. As you pointed out, Cam could be a key if he is on his game. If not, it could be a long night. He's usually good on defense. The question is, will he give us the scoring punch we'll need to help make up for Buddy's absence? One thing is for certain, everyone on the team will have to step to the forefront for OU to come away with a steal on the road in Stillwater.

 

[bgrch1350]

Ford finally has this team playing up to their potential. It's going to take us hitting our shots and them cold from the outside to pull off the win. We also need to dominate Jurick down low.

We need to get them in foul trouble and not turn the ball over. We don't necessarly need to dominate down low, if M'Baye, Fitz, and Osby can hit jump shots like they have been doing against big guys.

 

[garyeb2]

The worse whippings that I ever took playing poker usually came the day after I had decided that I was the best and couldn't be beat. After winning 6 in a row, OSU is probably just about to that spot now.

Buddy will be missed. He is helping change the personality and culture of the program. His absence, I don't think, will result in the team reverting back to something else.

My memory fails me sometimes now. But, didn't we go to Stillwater without Blake one year and beat them with Longar Longar. I expect a good effort from the kids that do play and a win with a good shooting day. A bad shooting day, well, mayby not.

 

[oSuJeff97]

Here are the keys from the OSU side:

Keep Smart of out foul trouble. That was obviously the biggest factor in the first game. Interestingly, the first Bedlam game was - by far - Smart's season-low in minutes played during a competitive* Big 12 game. He only played 27 minutes. In all other games* he's averaged 37.5 minutes per game.

*I didn't count the two Tech games, when he was intentionally pulled to be rested when we were up by ~30 points.

Mike Cobbins needs to continue doing what he's doing. Probably the biggest difference, team-wise, with OSU from the first Bedlam to now is Mike Cobbins fully regaining his health and confidence. Outside of Smart, and with apologies to Markel Brown, Cobbins has probably been our best and most consistent player over the past 3-4 weeks. In particular, he's been a beast on the defensive glass, and is a reason why OSU is first in the Big 12 in defending against offensive rebounds.

Forte and Brown need to not be ice cold. The two of them weren't as ice cold in Norman as they can be on the road from time to time, but their combined 3-point FG% needs to be better than 29%. It will be interesting to see how Forte does. He has pretty extreme home/road splits on his perimeter shooting -- hitting around 43% at home and something like 17% on the road. It will also be interesting to see what Brown does, as he's coming off another explosive 3-point barrage on the road (7/8 vs. Tech). In his last home game following his explosive 3-point barrage at Kansas (7/10), he put up a doughnut from behind the arc (0/6 vs. Baylor). It'll be interesting to see if he goes ice cold following a scorching hot game again.

Lebryan Nash needs to not be a waste of space. I'm done expecting anything really dynamic out of him... but we need to get something out of him. Let's say... 8 points and 6 rebounds. Yes. That will do just fine.

And can I also say this -- it is so freaking great to have a Bedlam basketball game that means something again!!!!

:woot

 

[campbest]

OU will punch a little higher than we think they can w/o Hield, OSU will regress more to the mean than the way they have played the past couple weeks. Will be a close game, just think OSU will be the better squad tomorrow. Maybe this team has another surprise up their sleeve.

 

[WTSooner]

I actually like OSU comfortably in this game, UNLESS one of two things happen.

Either OU is hitting a high percentage of our jump shots. Or OSU is ice cold from the field (mostly talking about Smart, Brown, and Forte here). I think OSU will come out pumped. They've been shooting the ball well. And they will want revenge. OU I'm guessing won't be unconscious from the field, and I think we'll struggle a little without Buddy in this first game.

 

[KBaden145]

I actually like OSU comfortably in this game, UNLESS one of two things happen.

Either OU is hitting a high percentage of our jump shots. Or OSU is ice cold from the field (mostly talking about Smart, Brown, and Forte here). I think OSU will come out pumped. They've been shooting the ball well. And they will want revenge. OU I'm guessing won't be unconscious from the field, and I think we'll struggle a little without Buddy in this first game.

Yeah. This is the last place and circumstance I would want to play our first game without Buddy. Would prefer a home game against a bottom feeder. It is what it is.

 

[Big Old Booger]

The worse whippings that I ever took playing poker usually came the day after I had decided that I was the best and couldn't be beat. After winning 6 in a row, OSU is probably just about to that spot now.

Buddy will be missed. He is helping change the personality and culture of the program. His absence, I don't think, will result in the team reverting back to something else.

My memory fails me sometimes now. But, didn't we go to Stillwater without Blake one year and beat them with Longar Longar. I expect a good effort from the kids that do play and a win with a good shooting day. A bad shooting day, well, mayby not.

Blake was injured his frosh year and he traveled with the team, if I remember correctly, but did not suit-out. We did win but that osu team had Sean Sutton on the bench, which is far different from Ford, IMO.

I think we can win but it's going to be tough. I expect osu to win, though.

 

[Chaser728]

Here are the keys from the OSU side:

Keep Smart of out foul trouble. That was obviously the biggest factor in the first game. Interestingly, the first Bedlam game was - by far - Smart's season-low in minutes played during a competitive* Big 12 game. He only played 27 minutes. In all other games* he's averaged 37.5 minutes per game.

*I didn't count the two Tech games, when he was intentionally pulled to be rested when we were up by ~30 points.

Mike Cobbins needs to continue doing what he's doing. Probably the biggest difference, team-wise, with OSU from the first Bedlam to now is Mike Cobbins fully regaining his health and confidence. Outside of Smart, and with apologies to Markel Brown, Cobbins has probably been our best and most consistent player over the past 3-4 weeks. In particular, he's been a beast on the defensive glass, and is a reason why OSU is first in the Big 12 in defending against offensive rebounds.

Forte and Brown need to not be ice cold. The two of them weren't as ice cold in Norman as they can be on the road from time to time, but their combined 3-point FG% needs to be better than 29%. It will be interesting to see how Forte does. He has pretty extreme home/road splits on his perimeter shooting -- hitting around 43% at home and something like 17% on the road. It will also be interesting to see what Brown does, as he's coming off another explosive 3-point barrage on the road (7/8 vs. Tech). In his last home game following his explosive 3-point barrage at Kansas (7/10), he put up a doughnut from behind the arc (0/6 vs. Baylor). It'll be interesting to see if he goes ice cold following a scorching hot game again.

Lebryan Nash needs to not be a waste of space. I'm done expecting anything really dynamic out of him... but we need to get something out of him. Let's say... 8 points and 6 rebounds. Yes. That will do just fine.

And can I also say this -- it is so freaking great to have a Bedlam basketball game that means something again!!!!

:woot

This is some pretty good stuff. Man when I think about our last Bedlam game, I think of Forte doing more than that behind the arc. In the first half especially. I think if he had not hit some of those threes we would have been up by quite a bit more. Also, I echo your final sentiments!

 

[JBaker]

OSU is playing signficantly better than Round No. 1 of Bedlam and with the game being in Stillwater, it will be a tall task.

I don't know if they are playing significantly better than they were earlier.
They beat Kansas, who we also just beat.

Other than that, their recent game are big wins over a terrible Tech and Texas (before they got Holmes and Kabongo back), an OT win over Baylor at home, a last second win over Iowa State at home, West Virginia at home, and a double digit loss at Baylor.

 

[JBaker]

Blake was injured his frosh year and he traveled with the team, if I remember correctly, but did not suit-out. We did win but that osu team had Sean Sutton on the bench, which is far different from Ford, IMO.

I think we can win but it's going to be tough. I expect osu to win, though.

I believe Blake did not travel with the team, because Capel didn't think he would be able to stop him from suiting up.

 

[ByronHoustonsSweatyPalms]

The pokes are playing better than they ever have under Ford. However they have had 2 tight fits at home already, Baylor and ISU. Look for another close one.

 

[oSuJeff97]

I think about our last Bedlam game, I think of Forte doing more than that behind the arc. In the first half especially. I think if he had not hit some of those threes we would have been up by quite a bit more. Also, I echo your final sentiments!

He finished the game 3 of 10. I think he may have been something like 3 of 4 in the first half though.

I don't know if they are playing significantly better than they were earlier.
They beat Kansas, who we also just beat.

Other than that, their recent game are big wins over a terrible Tech and Texas (before they got Holmes and Kabongo back), an OT win over Baylor at home, a last second win over Iowa State at home, West Virginia at home, and a double digit loss at Baylor.

Trust me. We're playing significantly better.

I wouldn't excuse away all of those games. Both KU and ISU played really well in those games that you mentioned and we still won. ISU, in particular, was deadly from 3-point range in our game, going 13 of 24. You have to be playing really well to withstand that. They shot better against us than they did against OU in Ames in a game they easily won.

And as much as KU has been "stuggling", you saw how devestating they can still play in Lawrence the other night. And in fact they didn't play badly in our game, scoring 80 points. We just played better.

There's no way we win either of those games in mid-January, around the time of the first Bedlam game.

Even the Texas game you cite -- no, they didn't have Kabongo back, but OSU put them away early and there was never any doubt about the outcome. We were up by 20 with four minutes left. Nobody else has done that to them in Austin, even Kansas. And their game in Norman was also close.

None of this guarantees anything for OSU in tomorrow's game. I'm just saying that if you think OSU isn't playing much better right now than they were in mid-January, you haven't been watching their games.

 

[JBaker]

The pokes are playing better than they ever have under Ford. However they have had 2 tight fits at home already, Baylor and ISU. Look for another close one.

I just don't think this is true.
During their current 6-game win streak, they were favored in 5 of the games.
The Kansas game is the only game in the last 2 months where you can really say OSU has played above or beyond what you'd expect.

 

[JBaker]

Both KU and ISU played really well in those games that you mentioned and we still won.

KU shot 5% below their season average and had 15 TOs against OSU. I wouldn't exactly call that playing really well.
Not that I'm excusing that win for OSU. Just saying it's the only impressive win in your current stretch.

 

[scrybe]

It's apparent from reading these posts that many of us believe we have little chance of beating the Cowboys at their place. All I can say is, "Not so fast."

It's not unusual for the Sooners to beat the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when OSU has more "star" players and/or the higher ranked team. Remember the "hell hole" game of a few years ago? And that was with Jeff Capel at the helm. Now we've got CLK calling the shots.

OU, IMO, has a huge advantage inside with Osby and M'Baye, and I believe we play better defense than the Cowboys. We don't have a Marcus Smart at the guard spot, but our two freshmen and Grooms can all play and at the very least are good enough to make us competitive with the Cowboys in the backcourt. The loss of Hield hurts, of course, but Buddy's not the only player on the OU team that is capable of playing defense. And then there's our bench, which I believe is not just the deepest, but also the best in the conference.

The Cowboys have the homecourt advantage, of course, which is normally huge in college basketball. But I still believe that OSU will win this game only if they hit an ungodly high number of three-pointers and/or an unusually high percentage of all their outside shots. For OU to win, we need a good (not necessarily great) performance from our starters and the kind of contributions we've had most of the year from our bench.

 

[WTSooner]

.....and I believe we play better defense than the Cowboys.

Ken Pom disagrees. OSU is currently ranked 11th in the country in defensive efficiency. OU ranks 48th, and we just lost our best on-ball defender.

I don't think it would shock anybody if OU won. We win in Stillwater often enough. The two teams are probably pretty even in the grand scheme of things. OU has the coaching advantage as well. I just think it sets up as a game OSU probably wins. If OU comes out and hits shots like we did the first time against OSU, or against Baylor, or against KU.....OU can certainly win the game. However, if the shots aren't falling, I'd be pretty surprised to see an OU win.

 

[OSUFan]

It's apparent from reading these posts that many of us believe we have little chance of beating the Cowboys at their place. All I can say is, "Not so fast."

It's not unusual for the Sooners to beat the Cowboys in Stillwater, even when OSU has more "star" players and/or the higher ranked team. Remember the "hell hole" game of a few years ago? And that was with Jeff Capel at the helm. Now we've got CLK calling the shots.

OU, IMO, has a huge advantage inside with Osby and M'Baye, and I believe we play better defense than the Cowboys. We don't have a Marcus Smart at the guard spot, but our two freshmen and Grooms can all play and at the very least are good enough to make us competitive with the Cowboys in the backcourt. The loss of Hield hurts, of course, but Buddy's not the only player on the OU team that is capable of playing defense. And then there's our bench, which I believe is not just the deepest, but also the best in the conference.

The Cowboys have the homecourt advantage, of course, which is normally huge in college basketball. But I still believe that OSU will win this game only if they hit an ungodly high number of three-pointers and/or an unusually high percentage of all their outside shots. For OU to win, we need a good (not necessarily great) performance from our starters and the kind of contributions we've had most of the year from our bench.

Brown might be a 1st team Big 12 player this year yet nobody ever mentions him.

Also that "hell hole" statement by Capel was a compliment meaning it was a tough place to play. He even stated that during the press conference. Why do so many sooners think he meant that the place was a dump