Three Seed Competition

[Zimwillett]

Interestingly, KenPom and Sagarin have very different ideas about UNI. Pomeroy has them at #11 (right between OU and Baylor) while Sagarin ranks them 24th. Both are supposed to be adjusted for competition.

Interesting, but I think totally inaccurate based on the "eye test." They were taken to OT by a terrible GMU team and consistently struggled to beat some of the worst teams in all of college basketball.

Regardless, I still don't think the committee should reward them with anything better than a #5. It sends the wrong message---pile up a bunch of wins against RPI 200+ and you'll be rewarded.

 

[stormspencer]

Interesting, but I think totally inaccurate based on the "eye test." They were taken to OT by a terrible GMU team and consistently struggled to beat some of the worst teams in all of college basketball.

Regardless, I still don't think the committee should reward them with anything better than a #5. It sends the wrong message---pile up a bunch of wins against RPI 200+ and you'll be rewarded.

I tend to lean towards Kenpom ratings as a fairly effective and accurate measure of a team. I understand Kenpom metrics much more than I do Sagarin.

Regarding UNI, I wouldn't be shocked if they lost in the 1st round or made it to the Elite Eight. They play at a very slow pace, and with the right/wrong matchup, could get bounced early or advance deep. They are still somewhat of a mystery because, like you noted, they haven't played enough quality competition for me to get an accurate read on them. I think they probably end up around a 5 seed.

 

[IndySooner]

That Louisville loss helps. Here's hoping UNC loses tomorrow.

 

[stormspencer]

That Louisville loss helps. Here's hoping UNC loses tomorrow.

Even on their best day, I just don't see Carolina beating Virginia.

 

[Zimwillett]

Even on their best day, I just don't see Carolina beating Virginia.

Exactly. Carolina gets by on name recognition and the fact that they played Duke close while everyone was watching, but their resume is pretty lackluster. Until today, their best wins were Davidson, NC State and Ohio State. Blah.

The best you can say about Carolina is they don't really have any truly bad losses. If they can beat Louisville, UVA, and Duke for an ACC title, that changes things, but that won't happen.

 

[stormspencer]

Exactly. Carolina gets by on name recognition and the fact that they played Duke close while everyone was watching, but their resume is pretty lackluster. Until today, their best wins were Davidson, NC State and Ohio State. Blah.

The best you can say about Carolina is they don't really have any truly bad losses. If they can beat Louisville, UVA, and Duke for an ACC title, that changes things, but that won't happen.

Carolina struggles with shooting, has had inconsistent to poor guard play (even Marcus Paige has somewhat regressed), and doesn't play all that well in the halfcourt (offensively or defensively). They win most games because they have great athletes with length and they rebound like Baylor does. And I do like their bigs inside (Meeks, Johnson, and Jackson)

I think UNC could be really good on the defensive side of the ball if Roy would emphasize it, but he would rather run'n'gun and play rec ball.

 

[pnkranger]

6 of these 8 teams won today ... I think the 3 seeds will come down to

Maryland
Notre dame

2 big 12 teams.

Winning tomorrow locks us in.

 

[POBR25]

6 of these 8 teams won today ... I think the 3 seeds will come down to

Maryland
Notre dame

2 big 12 teams.

Winning tomorrow locks us in.

Maryland plays a desperate Indiana team today.
Notre Dame plays Duke.

I'm not convinced Notre Dame is a slam-dunk lock as a 3 seed. Only 5 top 50 wins (9 top 100), 24th in the RPI, 115th SOS (326 non-con SOS). The more I think about it, we might see a Big 12 trio on the 3 line. I think Notre Dame's resume is a lot like Louisville's from last season.

Let's win tonight to be safe, but we may be locked in to the 3 seed already. We have the most Top 50 wins in the country (12). That's going to carry a lot of weight with the committee.

 

[Zimwillett]

6 of these 8 teams won today ... I think the 3 seeds will come down to

Maryland
Notre dame

2 big 12 teams.

Winning tomorrow locks us in.

Notre Dame is an interesting case. Pollsters love them, and on the surface, they appear to have a strong record. But if you drill down (as I believe the committee will), you see that 18 of their 27 wins are vs. RPI 100+. 5 of those wins are against the RPI 300+. When you schedule Binghamton, Grambling State, Chicago State and Fairleigh Dickinson, you're not exactly trying to load up a rigorous schedule.

It just depends on what the committee values. If it's piling up gaudy win numbers regardless of competition, Notre Dame is probably a 3. If the committee rewards/punishes teams for their schedules, they're not.

 

[POBR25]

Notre Dame is an interesting case. Pollsters love them, and on the surface, they appear to have a strong record. But if you drill down (as I believe the committee will), you see that 18 of their 27 wins are vs. RPI 100+. 5 of those wins are against the RPI 300+. When you schedule Binghamton, Grambling State, Chicago State and Fairleigh Dickinson, you're not exactly trying to load up a rigorous schedule.

It just depends on what the committee values. If it's piling up gaudy win numbers regardless of competition, Notre Dame is probably a 3. If the committee rewards/punishes teams for their schedules, they're not.

Bingo.

On resume alone, the 3 seeds should be:

Iowa State
Oklahoma
Baylor
Maryland

Really intrigued to see what the committee does.

 

[stormspencer]

Notre Dame is an interesting case. Pollsters love them, and on the surface, they appear to have a strong record. But if you drill down (as I believe the committee will), you see that 18 of their 27 wins are vs. RPI 100+. 5 of those wins are against the RPI 300+. When you schedule Binghamton, Grambling State, Chicago State and Fairleigh Dickinson, you're not exactly trying to load up a rigorous schedule.

It just depends on what the committee values. If it's piling up gaudy win numbers regardless of competition, Notre Dame is probably a 3. If the committee rewards/punishes teams for their schedules, they're not.

I agree 100%. The other aspect the committee can use is the eye test....so there is some subjectivity intertwined into each decision. Thus, does Notre Dame "look" like a 3 seed? When all other things appear to be equal or close, they can bring this into the discussion. But like you said, ND's non-conference was a joke and they have a gaudy record because of it.

 

[thechucker]

that would be truly amazing with 7 teams. :ex-laugh:

Edit - the little laughing guy is meant to convey a joke and not laughing at you

I would like to see all 7 teams in the Final Four.

 

[pnkranger]

Baylor played its way out of a three seed by laying an egg against Kansas.

Maryland and ISU locked up 3 seeds. I think notre dame locked up a three seed by making the acc title game.

That leaves one spot. Only OU and Noryh Carolina can lay claim to it at this point in my mind. I think they'll give it to OU because of just how close the margin is between OU and ISU.

 

[WaymanFan]

I believe three of the four #3 seeds are in the books. Assuming Kansas beats out Maryland for the last #2 seed, the three #3 LOCKS would be Maryland, Notre Dame and Iowa State. I think we have a great shot at the fourth #3, but I wouldn't call us a lock. It would certainly help if Notre Dame beats North Carolina NC beating Virginia at least puts them in the conversation..

 

[WaymanFan]

Baylor played its way out of a three seed by laying an egg against Kansas.

Maryland and ISU locked up 3 seeds. I think notre dame locked up a three seed by making the acc title game.

That leaves one spot. Only OU and Noryh Carolina can lay claim to it at this point in my mind. I think they'll give it to OU because of just how close the margin is between OU and ISU.

I swear, I did not look at your post when I first replied. I guess we're thinking alike...scary for you

 

[jackson_supersooner]

I feel like with UNC beating virginia being fresh on the committees mind they'll get it. That's ok I'm cool with a 4. I'd love a 3 but I'll be expecting a 4.

 

[MercedeSooner]

Today's game probably secured ISU getting that 3 and us a 4.

 

[StatGeek]

Today's game probably secured ISU getting that 3 and us a 4.

I agree, I figured the winner of this game gets a 3 and the loser gets a 4.

 

[AltSooner33]

I think we will be a 4 too. I don't see them putting us ahead of North Carolina now whether we deserve it or not. Hope I'm wrong, being a 4 instead of a 3 could make a big difference.

 

[JBaker]

I think we will be a 4 too. I don't see them putting us ahead of North Carolina now whether we deserve it or not. Hope I'm wrong, being a 4 instead of a 3 could make a big difference.

I don't think our resumes overall are close. If UNC wins tomorrow they will be 7-9 against the top 50 with 10 losses.
If they lose tomorrow they will be 6-10 against the top 50 with 11 losses.

OU is 11-6 against the top 50 with 10 losses.

If beating tournament teams is the most important factor, and I think it is, we should be seeded ahead of UNC.