Three Seed Competition

JBaker said:
I don't think our resumes overall are close. If UNC wins tomorrow they will be 7-9 against the top 50 with 10 losses.
If they lose tomorrow they will be 6-10 against the top 50 with 11 losses.

OU is 11-6 against the top 50 with 10 losses.

If beating tournament teams is the most important factor, and I think it is, we should be seeded ahead of UNC.
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I'm with you! I'm just thinking they might get it just from their name and a hot conference tournament run over some high ranked teams.
 
Body of work...don't put too much stock in one conference tournament game in March.
 
campbest said:
Body of work...don't put too much stock in one conference tournament game in March.
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Exactly. Every year, people over value wins or losses in the conference tournaments. Luckily, the committee has never done so. They've even admitted they finish their brackets before some conference tournament championships are over.

A win last night would have probably sealed it, but I think OU's resume still gets them a #3. I'm assuming Maryland and ISU have 2 of the 3s locked up. That leaves OU, Baylor, ND, and UNC vying for two more spots. I think OU's body of work is as good or better than any of those teams. It just comes down to what the committee values. Gaudy win total regardless of schedule? Peaking late? No bad losses? But if they put the emphasis on "good wins" the same as recent committees, OU is in great shape.
 
IndySooner said:
Palm has us flipped
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Palm (still) has Notre Dame and Baylor as his #3s. Perhaps he has some insights I don't since he does this for a living, but I just don't see the committee going that way. Baylor has a slightly better RPI rank and SOS than OU, but when you factor in that OU has far more "good" wins and finished ahead of Baylor in the conference, I don't see how you could make Baylor a #3 over OU.

And again, I have no idea why he loves Notre Dame so much. Their strength of schedule is glaringly bad compared to the other teams in this conversation. It's a clear point of separation, and one I don't think the committee will ignore.
 
We'll see what happens but this OU team is not close to legitimately being one of the top 12 teams. Our "quality" wins are inflated with 7 wins over teams from 42-50. 4 wins against OSU and Tulsa are not quality. Those teams are pretty terrible.

We should be a 4 seed and have a little less than 50% chance of getting out of the first weekend.
 
Does any fanbase in America shortchange, spew venom, etc at their own team more than our fanbase?
 
bocabull said:
We'll see what happens but this OU team is not close to legitimately being one of the top 12 teams. Our "quality" wins are inflated with 7 wins over teams from 42-50. 4 wins against OSU and Tulsa are not quality. Those teams are pretty terrible.

We should be a 4 seed and have a little less than 50% chance of getting out of the first weekend.
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So who are your top 12?

In no particular order, UK, Nova, UVA, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, KU, Maryland, and ISU are pretty clearly the going to be the top 10 seeds.

As I see it, UNC, ND, OU and Baylor are the next 4. So which of those 2 do you put in the top 12 over OU and why?
 
Zimwillett said:
So who are your top 12?

In no particular order, UK, Nova, UVA, Duke, Wisconsin, Arizona, Gonzaga, KU, Maryland, and ISU are pretty clearly the going to be the top 10 seeds.

As I see it, UNC, ND, OU and Baylor are the next 4. So which of those 2 do you put in the top 12 over OU and why?
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IMO bad losses reveal substantially more than marginal quality wins (RPI teams 25-50). UNC, Baylor, ND, WSU, UNI, SMU, VCU, Louisville, Arkansas all have better records than OU and OU has 2 losses worse than any of those teams worst loss. Beyond that there are another 10-15 teams with an equivalent record to OU without losses as bad as ours.

The system will likely work in our favor and earn us a 4 seed. But if they drill down like you think they will a 6 seed is easy to justify. We're not better Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgetown and a host of other teams. Our quality win profile is flukey because we have 7 wins 42-50 and 0 wins 50-100.

Our odds of making the sweet 16 are a little less than 50%. We're a legit top 30 team. So are 29 others.
 
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bocabull said:
IMO bad losses reveal substantially more than marginal quality wins (RPI teams 25-50). UNC, Baylor, ND, WSU, UNI, SMU, VCU, Louisville, Arkansas all have better records than OU and OU has 2 losses worse than any of those teams worst loss. Beyond that there are another 10-15 teams with an equivalent record to OU without losses as bad as ours. Our quality wins is flukey because we have 7 wins RPI 42-50 and zero wins RPI 50-100.

The system will likely work in our favor and earn us a 4 seed. But if they drill down like you think they will a 6 seed is easy to justify. We're not better Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgetown and a host of other teams.

Our odds of making the sweet 16 are a little less than 50%. We're a legit top 30 team. So are 29 others.
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:ez-roll:

So what do VCU's losses to St. Bonaventure and La Salle say about them? What about Arkansas' losses to Tennessee and Clemson? What do Michigan State's losses to Nebraska, Texas Southern (at home no less) and Minnesota say about them? If bad losses are your primary criteria, you need to take a much closer look at these teams.

And whether you like it or not, good wins do count, and some of the other teams you mentioned hardly measure up. Half of SMU's 4 top 50 wins are vs. a "terrible" Tulsa team, so they clearly shouldn't get any credit for those. Their other 2 are vs. Temple. Wow. Same with Wichita State. 1 of their whopping 2 top 50 wins (Tulsa) gets thrown out. Ohio State's only win vs. the RPI top 50 was against Maryland at home in January. A full third of Louisville's measly 3 top 50 wins would be classified as "marginal" under your system. Same with North Carolina who had 4 such "marginal" wins out of their 7 top 50. All but one of Arkansas' top 50 wins were "marginal". Same with 2 of UNI's 3, and half of VCU's 4. 3 of Georgtown's 4 top 50 wins are "marginal", including 2 vs. one of OU's "marginal" opponents, Butler. Are you starting to see the point here?

I guess I should realize by now that you're just trolling/flaming, but you should at least put some research in before you throw a bunch of crap like that out.
 
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VCU is 25-9, they are 13-8 vs the top 100, their worst 2 losses are #93 Lasalle and #113 St. Bonvanture.

Arkansas is 25-7, they are 12-6 vs the top 100, their worst 2 losses are #98 Tennessee and #104 Clemson.

OU is 22-10, they are 12-8 vs the top 100, their worst 2 losses are #120 Washington and #140 Creighton.

So you picked the worst 2 teams I listed and they have better overall records, better worst 2 losses and better records vs the top 100.

It's ok dim, it's well known attorneys are not good at math and have poor analytical skills. Apparently you also suffer from region bias as do most Big XII homers. I'm an OU alum who happens be objective. It's a rare trait I know.
 
bocabull said:
VCU is 25-9, they are 13-8 vs the top 100, their worst 2 losses are #93 Lasalle and #113 St. Bonvanture.

Arkansas is 25-7, they are 12-6 vs the top 100, their worst 2 losses are #98 Tennessee and #104 Clemson.

OU is 22-10, they are 12-8 vs the top 100, their worst 2 losses are #120 Washington and #140 Creighton.

So you picked the worst 2 teams I listed and they have better overall records, better worst 2 losses and better records vs the top 100.

It's ok dim, it's well known attorneys are not good at math and have poor analytical skills. Apparently you also suffer from region bias as do most Big XII homers. I'm an OU alum who happens be objective. It's a rare trait I know.
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No, I picked multiple of the teams you listed and tried to analyze their schedules just as you did OU's. They all have their flaws just like OU. I'm particularly amused at how quickly you abandoned the "marginal top 50 win" argument. If you start doing that to every team you listed, very few teams actually have a lot of "good wins."

I also think you focus too much on the raw record. UNI has 30 wins, but 22 of those are vs. RPI 100+ (plus a loss to #119 Evansville). 14 of those are vs. RPI 200+. What would OU's record have been against a schedule like that? That's why the committee uses other metrics besides just raw record. For that reason, teams like Arkansas, SMU, VCU, UNI, Wichita State, and Louisville are not legitimately in the conversation for a 3 seed.

To try to end this cordially, I agree that OU's 2 bad losses are their worst blemishes and possibly could cost them the 3 seed. But it's close. I'll repeat again, it just depends on what this year's committee values. If it's piling up wins, UNI should probably be in the conversation for a #1 seed. But if they look at a team's proven ability to beat tournament caliber competition (as I believe they should and will), OU's as good as anyone. I guess we'll see tomorrow.
 
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Just need to root for Notre Dame today and then hope the committee likes us enough to stay at the 3
 
ocugolfsooner said:
Just need to root for Notre Dame today and then hope the committee likes us enough to stay at the 3
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Yep. I think it's between us and UNC for the last three seed. Historically, conference tournaments haven't mattered as much which would favor us.
 
The committee has shown year after year that wins are more important than the losses and that top 25 and top 50 wins are even more important because those are against NCAA tourney quality teams.

OU has 12 wins against the RPI top 50 which is impressive no matter what the pessimists says.
 
Maryland just lost to unranked Michigan State. They're probably still a 3, but it can't have hurt OU's chances.
 
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