Three Seed Competition

[JBaker]

IMO bad losses reveal substantially more than marginal quality wins (RPI teams 25-50). UNC, Baylor, ND, WSU, UNI, SMU, VCU, Louisville, Arkansas all have better records than OU and OU has 2 losses worse than any of those teams worst loss. Beyond that there are another 10-15 teams with an equivalent record to OU without losses as bad as ours.

The system will likely work in our favor and earn us a 4 seed. But if they drill down like you think they will a 6 seed is easy to justify. We're not better Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgetown and a host of other teams. Our quality win profile is flukey because we have 7 wins 42-50 and 0 wins 50-100.

Our odds of making the sweet 16 are a little less than 50%. We're a legit top 30 team. So are 29 others.

In the offseason all you talked about was how great the AAC is as a conference, and how much better it is than the Big 12. Now wins over the team who finished second in the AAC thanks to a loss in the last game of the season isn't an impressive win?

And SMU is a team that can compare to OU when every single one of their decent wins is against AAC teams?
Boy, I wish you'd make up your mind...

 

[IndySooner]

Could ISU be stealing KU's 2-seed?

 

[chuckb]

Maryland just lost to unranked Michigan State. They're probably still a 3, but it can't have hurt OU's chances.

Agreed. But Maryland isn't good enough to warrant a 3 seed. Hopefully the committee will see our loss to ISU as better than Maryland's to Michigan St. Then the 3's can be ISU, Notre Dame, UNC, and us. If Carolina beats Notre Dame they'll be a 3 and probably locked one up by beating Virginia.

 

[chuckb]

IMO bad losses reveal substantially more than marginal quality wins (RPI teams 25-50). UNC, Baylor, ND, WSU, UNI, SMU, VCU, Louisville, Arkansas all have better records than OU and OU has 2 losses worse than any of those teams worst loss. Beyond that there are another 10-15 teams with an equivalent record to OU without losses as bad as ours.

The system will likely work in our favor and earn us a 4 seed. But if they drill down like you think they will a 6 seed is easy to justify. We're not better Michigan State, Ohio State, Georgetown and a host of other teams. Our quality win profile is flukey because we have 7 wins 42-50 and 0 wins 50-100.

Our odds of making the sweet 16 are a little less than 50%. We're a legit top 30 team. So are 29 others.

There's so much here that is not in keeping with reality. If you really believe our resume is no better than SMU's, Arkansas', UNI's, or Wichita St.'s then you simply don't know college basketball. Similarly, if you think we're not better than Ohio St or Michigan St, you're just lost.

I guess you have these bizarre opinions because you're choosing to conveniently forget all the wins OU has against good teams, which the others you compared us to simply don't have.

Many good wins don't make us fluky, they make us good.

 

[MichaelM]

Notre Dame beats UNC. I think OU has a really good chance at a 3 seed.

 

[KBaden145]

Notre Dame beats UNC. I think OU has a really good chance at a 3 seed.

Just about to post about this. I agree completely. Very deserving. If we had executed down the stretch in a few of those close games, we'd be talking about a sure 2 seed.


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[JBaker]

The more I think about it, the more I think we are safely a 3.

Idiots like Gottlieb out there arguing ND should be a 2, but that's nonsense. And probably wouldn't affect us anyway. ND, ISU, OU, Maryland will be 3s.

 

[Zimwillett]

I'll concede that ND earned a #3 seed with their conference tournament win. I think their schedule should and will be the subject of some scrutiny in the committee room. It sends the wrong message if you reward them too much. Their nonconference was truly a joke.

Some of the more outlandish opinions above notwithstanding, I think it's down to OU, Baylor and UNC for the final #3 seed. I think OU's "good" wins and the fact that they finished tied for second in the #1 RPI conference will be the deciding factors and OU gets the last #3 seed.

 

[bocabull]

SMU wins tomorrow and they should lock up a 3. They will be 26-6, 13-6 vs the top 100, their worst loss is to #74, they won their conference regular season title and will have won their conference tournament. That's a complete resume.

Of course if Arkansas were to beat a Kentucky they wound be a 3 seed too.

 

[SoopaSooner]

SMU will not be any higher than a 4. The American conference is terrible. Quit stirring.

 

[Zimwillett]

SMU wins tomorrow and they should lock up a 3. They will be 26-6, 13-6 vs the top 100, their worst loss is to #74, they won their conference regular season title and will have won their conference tournament. That's a complete resume.

Of course if Arkansas were to beat a Kentucky they wound be a 3 seed too.

:ez-roll: at SMU. In this very thread you said that Tulsa is not a quality win and "pretty terrible". That's literally half of SMU's top 50 wins. Their other 2 are vs. Temple.

Literally no bracketologist in the country (http://bracketmatrix.com/) has either SMU or Arkansas as a #3. Maybe you know something they all don't, but I'd be very surprised. We'll all find out in less than 24 hours.

Edit: It's a minor point, but SMU is only 11-6 vs. the top 100. Why fudge it?

 

[JBaker]

I'll concede that ND earned a #3 seed with their conference tournament win. I think their schedule should and will be the subject of some scrutiny in the committee room. It sends the wrong message if you reward them too much. Their nonconference was truly a joke.

Some of the more outlandish opinions above notwithstanding, I think it's down to OU, Baylor and UNC for the final #3 seed. I think OU's "good" wins and the fact that they finished tied for second in the #1 RPI conference will be the deciding factors and OU gets the last #3 seed.

I think UNC actually has a better shot at being a 5 than a 3 at this point. But I feel they're pretty locked in as a 4.

 

[JBaker]

SMU will not be any higher than a 4. The American conference is terrible. Quit stirring.

SMU is probably a 5 or 6. They've beaten nobody. And they have one more game left against a team that doesn't get in the tournament without a win.

 

[152219]

SMU wins tomorrow and they should lock up a 3. They will be 26-6, 13-6 vs the top 100, their worst loss is to #74, they won their conference regular season title and will have won their conference tournament. That's a complete resume.

Of course if Arkansas were to beat a Kentucky they wound be a 3 seed too.

:ez-laugh:

 

[TINY]

SMU is probably a 5 or 6. They've beaten nobody. And they have one more game left against a team that doesn't get in the tournament without a win.

Agreed. They had pretty much the same season as last year and they didn't even make the dance as an at large.

 

[Zimwillett]

The more I look the more I think the last #3 could very well go to Baylor. Their raw metrics (RPI and SOS) are better than OU's, they have a better record vs. the RPI to 25 and have no bad losses.

On OU's side of things, they have more top 50 wins. OU also finished ahead of Baylor in conference. This gave Baylor the opportunity to play and beat West Virginia in the conference tournament, which, in turn, boosted their RPI, SOS, and record vs. the RPI top 25. OU also has a slightly better record in the last 10 (7-3 vs. 6-4), but I'm not sure that matters much.

It's really close. If OU is not the last #3, I'm fairly confident they'll be the top #4 (13 "true seed"). If OU gets the 4 instead of a 3 they'll have no one to blame but themselves. Keep focus against Creighton, Washington, K-State, or the second half in Ames and this isn't an issue.

 

[WTSooner]

It's really close. If OU is not the last #3, I'm fairly confident they'll be the top #4 (13 "true seed"). If OU gets the 4 instead of a 3 they'll have no one to blame but themselves. Keep focus against Creighton, Washington, K-State, or the second half in Ames and this isn't an issue.

That is what pains me about this team/season. So close to having a truly special season, and giving ourselves a better chance at advancing further in the Dance (better seed means weaker opponents, and maybe playing closer to home). But you are right, the team has nobody to blame but themselves. Can't even blame health this season, as aside from Booker missing a couple of games, this team has been extremely healthy this season.

Oh well. All will be forgotten if they find a way to win 2-3 games starting later this week.

 

[SoonerTraveler]

That is what pains me about this team/season. So close to having a truly special season, and giving ourselves a better chance at advancing further in the Dance (better seed means weaker opponents, and maybe playing closer to home). But you are right, the team has nobody to blame but themselves. Can't even blame health this season, as aside from Booker missing a couple of games, this team has been extremely healthy this season.

Oh well. All will be forgotten if they find a way to win 2-3 games starting later this week.

That is also the primary disappointment to me this season. You would think that OU's "core group" of juniors (Spangler, Cousins, Hield) would have the experience and maturity to realize that they have to play with focus and high energy every time out to have that really special season. I know this is hard to do, game in and game out, but that is what it takes to be a conference champion.

This Sooner team has given us a wonderful season, but it could have been even better. Thankfully, that "core group" and their teammates still have opportunities this season and next, to leave a permanent mark on our memories and the OU record books.

 

[bocabull]

Latest RPI has OU #19, the rankings will have us holding steady around #15 unless Arkansas and/or SMU win which could drop us to 16/17.

Our resume is better than others regarding top 50 wins but worse in every other regard. On its face we should be a 5 seed. The question is exactly how much of a bump, if any, we get for 7 wins against RPI teams 42-50 especially considering 5 of them came from beating the same 2 teams.

We're not close to a top 12 team. We're not that talented and have no depth which accounts for the bad losses. Those losses are close because we do have an abundance of experience in our starters. I'll guess they bump us up 1 spot to a 4 when we really should be a 5.

 

[coolm]

I agree we're probably a 4 seed and the bench is an issue. I think having a good conference record in this conference keeps us at a 4 by discretion.