Top 25 Stats

[sybarite]

The following is the ranking of the top 25 teams in order (ESPN) with their corresponding rank in the NCAA in turnovers:

Stanford 2
Connecticut 32
Baylor 18
Duke 36
Notre Dame 145

Kentucky 113
Georgia 12
California 136
Maryland 118
Penn State 178

Purdue 188
Louisville 120
Oklahoma State 57
Dayton 132
Tennessee 98

South Carolina 27
Oklahoma 132
UCLA 195
Nebraska 43
Kansas 81

Texas 318
Texas A&M 70
North Carolina 330
Ohio State 146
Florida State 204

 

[sybarite]

Top 25 and their corresponding ranking in field goal percentage.

Stanford 3
Connecticut 1
Baylor 2
DUke 7
Notre Dame 18

Kentucky 50
Georgia 30
California 9
Maryland 5
Penn State 63

Purdue 10
Louisville 19
Oklahoma State 6
Dayton 22
Tennessee 12

South Carolina 73
Oklahoma 16
UCLA 82
Nebraska 104
Kansas 24

Texas 64
Texas A&M 58
North Carolina 143
OHio State 8
Florida State 4

 

[euphguy]

The following is the ranking of the top 25 teams in order (ESPN) with their corresponding rank in the NCAA in turnovers:

Stanford 2
Connecticut 32
Baylor 18
Duke 36
Notre Dame 145

Kentucky 113
Georgia 12
California 136
Maryland 118
Penn State 178

Purdue 188
Louisville 120
Oklahoma State 57
Dayton 132
Tennessee 98

South Carolina 27
Oklahoma 132
UCLA 195
Nebraska 43
Kansas 81

Texas 318
Texas A&M 70
North Carolina 330
Ohio State 146
Florida State 204

Man, I thought we were bad. Look at UNC!

 

[euphguy]

OK State is for real this year. They will be tough to beat.

 

[SoonerinNC]

I'm sure they will be tough particularly at Gallager. But we would easily be undefeated with the same schedule.

 

[sybarite]

In case you didn't get the point, the following is a comparison of the schools that are highest in fewest turnovers and highest in field goal percentage:

Fewest Turnovers

1-50: 7
51-100: 4
101-150: 8
151-200: 3
201-250: 1
251-300: 0
301-343: 2

Field Goal Percentage

1-50: 18
51-100: 5
101-150: 2

In other words, there are some good teams that have a lot of turnovers. ALL of the top teams find a way to score. Field goal percentage is the best indicator of a good team of the various NCAA statistics.

There is another old adage of defense beats offense. Let's look at the top defensive and offensive teams:

Scoring defense

Stanford 26
COnnecticut 2
Baylor 56
Duke 11
Notre Dame 109

Kentucky 30
Georgia 4
California 53
Maryland 34
Penn State 115

Purdue 112
Louisville 29
Oklahoma State 16
Dayton 160
Tennessee 183

South Carolina 2
Oklahoma 108
UCLA 147
Nebraska 174
Kansas 60

Texas 95
Texas A&M 59
North Carolina 51
Ohio State 24
Florida State 110

1-50: 10
51-100: 6
101-150: 6
151-200: 3

Scoring Offense:

Stanford 12
Connecticut 3
Baylor 4
Duke 6
Notre Dame 8

Kentucky 14
Georgia 23
California 11
Maryland 9
Penn State 30

Purdue 43
Louisville 32
Oklahoma State 1
Dayton 7
Tennessee 2

South Carolina 131
Oklahoma 20
UCLA 60
Nebraska 78
Kansas 51

Texas 31
Texas A&M 69
North Carolina 64
Ohio State 52
Florida State 5

1-50: 18
51-100: 6
101-150: 1

Once again, the statistics suggest that good teams are more accurately predicted by scoring than by defense against scoring.

 

[sybarite]

Incidentally, the teams in the top 25 that are worst in turnover margin are:
294 Texas
209 Purdue
203 Stanford
196 Oklahoma (-0.60)
152 Dayton (+0.70)

In other words, OU is one of only four teams with negative turnover rates to be ranked..

 

[SoonerNorm]

Stats don't mean as much right now as they will in a couple of months because many of the teams play an easier non-conference schedule. In tight games, you betcha turnovers and defense are critical as to who wins most of the time. You can include rebounding as well because every possession means so much. If UCONN is playing Arkansas St, they could probably turn the ball over 40 times and win. However, if they are playing Baylor and turn the ball over 20 times, they are most likely going to lose. I guarantee they would lose if they turn it over 40 times.

 

[sybarite]

I have previously posted this information at the end of the year when they selected NCAA participants. The information is similar to what is here. Teams that tend to shoot well, shoot well. Teams that emphasize other things do other things. It has little to do with the time of year or whom they have played. We'll find similar rankings at the end of the year. We always have, and the statistics have been denied or excused.

 

[SoonerNorm]

I have previously posted this information at the end of the year when they selected NCAA participants. The information is similar to what is here. Teams that tend to shoot well, shoot well. Teams that emphasize other things do other things. It has little to do with the time of year or whom they have played. We'll find similar rankings at the end of the year. We always have, and the statistics have been denied or excused.

What you have found is that the better teams win. Yes, shooting well is a big part of that but those same teams in the final four can defend, rebound, etc. Any coach will tell you how important it is to take care of the basketball, play defense like your hair is on fire, and block out and rebound. As I said earlier, a great team can beat most teams by playing sloppy but they won't beat another great team playing like that. Look at OU, we are not a great team and we don't always shoot lights out. But, we can still win against most teams we play on those not-so-good shooting nights when we do those other things extremely well.

 

[sybarite]

Since I knew that I would be challenged by some who refuse to examine statistics, I researched last year's final top 25 and the season statistics for the NCAA.

Field Goal Percentage:

1-50: 16
51-100: 5
101-150: 2
151-200: 1
201-250: 0
251-300: 0
300-350: 1

Turnovers:

1-50: 11
51-100: 4
101-150: 6
151-200: 3
201-250: 1

Which tends to be more correlated with the success of a team? Only one team (Georgetown) was out of the top 164 in field goal percentage and still finished in the top 25. Only two teams were out of the top 105.

Offense vs defense?

Scoring offense:

1-50: 17
51-100: 4
101-150: 1
151-200: 3

Defense:

1-50: 11
51-100: 2
101-150: 4
151-200: 7
201-250: 1

Which has the stronger correlation.

Yes, good teams are good in all areas. The point is that the tendency is to emphasize what will get you among the better teams. You may cause some turnovers trying to get a better shot because, while turnovers are frustrating, field goal percentage has a stronger correlation to success.

Just so the information upon which these are based is here, the statistics are here:

Scoring offense

Baylor 3
Stanford 6
Connecticut 5
Notre Dame 2
Maryland 4

Duke 9
Tennessee 16
Delaware 29
Miami (FL) 7
Green Bay 15

Kentucky 17
Pemm State 8
Georgia Tech 35
Texas A&M 68
Purdue 101

Georgetown 197
Georgia 59
Ohio State 13
Louisville 52
Rutgers 189

St. Johns 176
Nebraska 30
DePaul 23
Gonzaga 10
St.Bonaventure 134

1-50: 17
51-100: 4
101-150: 1
151-200: 3

Scoring Defense

Baylor 7
Stanford 37
Connecticut 1
Notre Dame 13
Maryland 153

Duke 44
Tennessee 156
Delaware 35
Miami (FL) 66
Green Bay 36

Kentucky 113
Penn State 187
Georgia Tech 117
Texas A&M 130
Purdue 105

Georgetown 12
Georgia 83
Ohio State 194
Louisville 157
Rutgers 39

St. Johns 50
Nebraska 173
DePaul 245
Gonzaga 188
St.Bonaventure 29

1-50: 11
51-100: 2
101-150: 4
151-200: 7
201-250: 1

Field goal percentage

Baylor 1
Stanford 8
Connecticut 2
Notre Dame 4
Maryland 5

Duke 3
Tennessee 17
Delaware 12
Miami (FL) 56
Green Bay 10

Kentucky 103
Penn State 27
Georgia Tech 15
Texas A&M 38
Purdue 105

Georgetown 309
Georgia 32
Ohio State 7
Louisville 53
Rutgers 76

St.Johns 62
Nebraska 164
DePaul 22
Gonzaga 14
St.Bonaventure 59

1-50: 16
51-100: 5
101-150: 2
151-200: 1
201-250: 0
251-300: 0
300-350: 1

Turnovers Per Game

Baylor 16
Stanford 5
Connecticut 50
Notre Dame 88
Maryland 136

Duke 150
Tennessee 52
Delaware 10
Miami (FL) 148
Green Bay 81

Kentucky 196
Penn State 30
Georgia Tech 169
Texas A&M 45
Purdue 165

Georgetown 78
Georgia 46
Ohio State 19
Louisville 215
Rutgers 120

St.Johns 20
Nebraska 128
DePaul 121
Gonzaga 36
St.Bonaventure 2

1-50: 11
51-100: 4
101-150: 6
151-200: 3
201-250: 1

If the best predictor of success is field goal percentage, you may risk a few turnovers to get better shots.

 

[SoonerNorm]

field goal percentage has a stronger correlation to success.

I sure wouldn't disagree with you there. But, my point has always been that sometimes the team can't buy a basket (a coach cannot do a thing when that happens) but if they take care of the ball, rebound, and defend, they still might be able to pull out a win. It might be ugly but I'll take ugly wins all day long.