Transfer thread

[TEvans4Three]

But does his net SOS rating take into account non d1 schools?

I think he only takes into account games vs. D-I opponents

 

[hoopsaustin]

Milos ineffective vs bama fouled out. Guessing he played 15-18 mins

I think he might play his way out of starting.

 

[TEvans4Three]

You are correct, stats at this time don't matter. Great to look at but we only have 4 games. Oweh is off to a great start at Kentucky, but he was off to a great start at OU last year and fizzled out down the stretch for various reasons. I hope he does well as for the most part I want players to prosper.

A fun look, albeit cannot take these numbers in any concrete manner, but my scoring system a few games into the year:
2024-25


Comparing Transfers to last year's full season numbers:
2023-24


Goodine's numbers will drop, bc it is one game. My weighting system is heavy with PER/W-S but will go down as the year goes on.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

I think he only takes into account games vs. D-I opponents

Would be interested to see the numbers including non D1. Most teams seem to have some on the schedule

 

[WichitaSooner]

100’s, 200’s. Are you talking Overall rankings or schedule strength? Cause a team that only has wins against naia teams is still being based on preseason ratings and not what had happened in season so far. It’s probably to early to say significantly better.

Not sure exactly what you’re asking but the teams they have played are in the 100s and 200s in overall ratings. That’s a massive difference than being in the 330-350 range.

 

[snydrosooner]

Not sure exactly what you’re asking but the teams they have played are in the 100s and 200s in overall ratings. That’s a massive difference than being in the 330-350 range.i

Honestly I don’t get how they value teams at this point. 2-5 team is 151 and a 2-5 team is in 300’s. Major difference in how that sos plays out. Will just wait for more games.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Honestly I don’t get how they value teams at this point. 2-5 team is 151 and a 2-5 team is in 300’s. Major difference in how that sos plays out. Will just wait for more games.

It’s based on all sorts of factors. The advanced analytic sites consider the historical performance of each individual player, the strength of the team, conference affiliation, etc. To take an example, no one would reasonably argue that Duke and Houston aren’t incredibly high level teams, but they each have two losses because they have played great opponents. They clearly shouldn’t be behind us or Providence or any number of teams that have yet to play a real game.

There absolutely will be some/lots of movement in the ratings. But the thing I can’t emphasize enough is that the teams at the very bottom (say, 300 down) are all but certain to stay there. They are truly awful teams in truly awful leagues. There is no chance that our 7 Q-1 opponents will end up improving their spots by more than a tiny amount. And we knew that when we scheduled them.

 

[Maverick008]

Not sure if directed at me, since I was quoted. Just providing context going into the game. No complaints, just context.

As you can see, Providence also has the 2nd worst SOS.

Wasn’t quoting anyone in particular. My point isn’t Providence’s SOS, it’s their ranking on the website which is currently #70 and OU is #46. Both teams will get a bump up in SOS after playing each other in this game. That’s what happened to Uconn and ISU.

Again, I don’t get the bickering about the non con SOS given that a ton of SEC teams are in the top 50 of kenpom rankings (Auburn-1, Tenn-4, Ala-6, Ken-12, Flo- 18, Tex A&M-25, Miss st-26, Tex-31, Ark-36, Miss-51 (Missouri is 51 and LSU is 53, Georgia is 57), BUT some of the non-con teams on the kenpom site are higher as well:

Gonzaga (possible opp)- 2
Arizona (possible opp)- 24
Mich- 32
Providence- 70
Okla st- 97
Georgia tech- 114
Davidson- (possible opp)- 118

Obviously the 300+’s do nothing for the schedule (as long as they don’t lose) but the end result isn’t going to reflect how it is now based on what OU has coming up on the schedule. It’s clear OU has to win some of the games this time around but depending on who else they beat 20+ wins will have them on the bubble or squarely in.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Wasn’t quoting anyone in particular. My point isn’t Providence’s SOS, it’s their ranking on the website which is currently #70 and OU is #46. Both teams will get a bump up in SOS after playing each other in this game. That’s what happened to Uconn and ISU.

Again, I don’t get the bickering about the non con SOS given that a ton of SEC teams are in the top 50 of kenpom rankings (Auburn-1, Tenn-4, Ala-6, Ken-12, Flo- 18, Tex A&M-25, Miss st-26, Tex-31, Ark-36, Miss-51 (Missouri is 51 and LSU is 53, Georgia is 57), BUT some of the non-con teams on the kenpom site are higher as well:

Gonzaga (possible opp)- 2
Arizona (possible opp)- 24
Mich- 32
Providence- 70
Okla st- 97
Georgia tech- 114
Davidson- (possible opp)- 118

Obviously the 300+’s do nothing for the schedule (as long as they don’t lose) but the end result isn’t going to reflect how it is now based on what OU has coming up on the schedule. It’s clear OU has to win some of the games this time around but depending on who else they beat 20+ wins will have them on the bubble or squarely in.

In simplest terms, here is why it matters. If we lose today, Michigan will likely be the only noncon game where we could pick up anything close to a signature win. Zero or one Q-1 wins heading into league play would mean we would have to accomplish something we haven’t come close to doing under Moser, which is picking off a handful of good wins in the league, not just a couple.

If you want to tell yourself that the conference gives us plenty of chances to win big games, that’s fine. But do you honestly feel confident that will actually happen?

 

[Maverick008]

In simplest terms, here is why it matters. If we lose today, Michigan will likely be the only noncon game where we could pick up anything close to a signature win. Zero or one Q-1 wins heading into league play would mean we would have to accomplish something we haven’t come close to doing under Moser, which is picking off a handful of good wins in the league, not just a couple.

If you want to tell yourself that the conference gives us plenty of chances to win big games, that’s fine. But do you honestly feel confident that will actually happen?

Personally, I think OU could be anywhere from 6-10 conf wins. Who that will be is anyone's guess. I don't believe they will lose every game to the upper echelon, but I also don't know how many they will win. I do hold out hope that Goodine and Jones return and that their return only makes this team stronger. Hopefully that's enough to get to 20+ wins and give themselves a chance.

 

[scrybe]

I'm still trying to understand why I get a headache every time I browse this once-enjoyable board. I do believe, however, that I'm getting a little closer to figuring it out.

 

[snydrosooner]

Providence got a bigger jump from playing us then we did from playing them. Interesting. We are no longer last.

OU dropped overall ranking to 48 from 46 after the win while providence moved up one spot after loss. I know other games effect it, but interesting how that happened as well.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Providence got a bigger jump from playing us then we did from playing them. Interesting. We are no longer last.

OU dropped overall ranking to 48 from 46 after the win while providence moved up one spot after loss. I know other games effect it, but interesting how that happened as well.


View attachment 2116

Make it make sense lol

 

[WichitaSooner]

Make it make sense lol

It’s easy to explain and actually should flatter OU fans. They got a bigger bump because we are ranked quite a bit higher than them, so they got a bump by virtue of playing us.

 

[One More Rebound]

In an overtime victory over Minnesota, Bijan Cortes had six points and three assists for six and zero Wichita State. He is a starter on a three guard lineup.

 

[snydrosooner]

Kenpon is confusing. So, Az after losing to us is ranked 25 and is 3-3. We are now ranked 40 at 6-0. Most reasonable people looking at wins and considering schedule would have OU ahead of AZ since we beat them head-to-head on a neutral court with us still being undefeated. It's all about expectations, which AZ had more. Head-to-head should matter more.

 

[hoopsaustin]

In an overtime victory over Minnesota, Bijan Cortes had six points and three assists for six and zero Wichita State. He is a starter on a three guard lineup.

Forgot about him. Thanks

 

[WichitaSooner]

Kenpon is confusing. So, Az after losing to us is ranked 25 and is 3-3. We are now ranked 40 at 6-0. Most reasonable people looking at wins and considering schedule would have OU ahead of AZ since we beat them head-to-head on a neutral court with us still being undefeated. It's all about expectations, which AZ had more. Head-to-head should matter more.

It’s not all based on expectations. And one game does matter but it doesn’t offset everything else. If we continue playing well against good teams, ours will improve. But it does illustrate how much damage playing too many low Q-4 teams can do.

 

[snydrosooner]

It’s not all based on expectations. And one game does matter but it doesn’t offset everything else. If we continue playing well against good teams, ours will improve. But it does illustrate how much damage playing too many low Q-4 teams can do.

You said int your self "The advanced analytic sites consider the historical performance of each individual player, the strength of the team, conference affiliation, etc"

Historical performance of individual - expectations of future performance. Strength of the team conference affiliation - expectations. So AZ having more preseason expectation, done by computer sure, then OU has them higher ranked even though we won the one on one at a neutral site.

 

[snydrosooner]

and to add to my confusion. AZ beat number 355 Canisius, 329 Old Dominion, and 124 Davidson. There losses are good, Duke, Wisconsin and OU. Only top win is 124, with ou having wins over 25 and 69. So yes our SOS is significantly lower, but we have beat 2 higher ranked teams then any win AZ has. I know it will all work out either way, just it seems off.

I will clarify. I think that AZ is getting more credit for losing against good teams then we did for beating them. SOS is important, i agree with that, but when we beat them head-to-head and have another higher ranked win then they do, its hard to see us ranked below.