SoonerBounce13
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It’s why I’m not a fan of all the advanced metrics.
Let the results on the court and the eyes say who is good
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Let the results on the court and the eyes say who is good
WichitaSooner
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You say this, yet last year thought we belonged in the tournament despite losing 11 of 13 against tournament teams?
There have to be advanced metrics because teams play such different schedules. It isn’t pro sports where you can just go by won/lost record because everyone plays basically the same schedule.
snydrosooner
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I agree we have to have it. But as of right now, do you believe AZ is a better team the OU which is what Kenpon is saying? If so do you believe they are 15 spots better?
Based on head-to-head I will say OU is better. That can change obviously depending on injures and future results.
It's changed since all of this OU is now 43 and AZ is now 24 based after other results. So now AZ is ranked 19 spots ahead of OU. Providence lost in their 2nd game.
That’s the thing about numbers, there is no bias. There is no head-to-head relevance in KenPom. It’s all about who the players are, and what the numbers look like. KenPom is one of if not the best advanced analytical basketball site for college hoops. I think if you put AZ and OU on a floor 10 times AZ likely wins 6 of them. But tonight we were the better team. There’s a lot of time left and more input to go into the analytics, this will certainly change over the course of the season
WichitaSooner
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If we played them 10 times right now, I’d hope to split with them. If we keep playing like this we did today against good teams, I’ll definitely change my thoughts on what our ceiling might be. But it’s risky to place too much emphasis on one game. No one would suggest that West Virginia is a better team than Gonzaga despite the head-to-head outcome. I’m not saying the gap between us and Zona is that big, to be clear. And our SOS numbers will obviously improve and narrow the gap eventually, but they will continue to drag us down quite a bit till conference starts.
CoachTalk
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Why would zona win 6? Curious. We had best 2 players on the floor.
Clean up a few things and we likely win going away…
We had the best 2 players on the floor today. But I don’t know that we have a player right now that is better than Caleb Love. Over the course of 10 games, I doubt we get the output at the 5 we got tonight (see Luke) consistently. Generally, I don’t think we would be consistent enough to put the type of performance we put on the floor today in all 10 games.
Fears and Moore played their best games of the year so far tonight. I don’t think any of the Zona players sniffed their “best game of the year” tonight. Some of that should be credited to us, but I think we also got some decent bounces tonight which won’t always go our way.
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Last year Caleb love I agree but this year? He’s 3rd best guard on his team. He’s been average through 6 games for zona.
soonertrash77
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One reason…we are getting nothing out of our starting center. Providence he had 2 points and 3 rebounds. Zona he had 0 and 2. You have stated many times in the past he is ‘serviceable’. Is this what you mean?
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I’ll take Sam’s career numbers over the last 2 games.
TEvans4Three
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The problem is this is more often the Sam we get in bigger games than not.
He makes some dumb fouls when playing more athletic bigs, and we can't have him getting into foul trouble when the 5 is our biggest depth issue.
Here is a look at 23-24 and the current season numbers:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
2024
[/TD][TD]PPG[/TD]
[TD]TRB[/TD]
[TD]AST[/TD]
[TD]PF[/TD]
[TD]GmScr[/TD]
[TD]FG%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Top 50[/TD]
[TD]
6.2
[/TD][TD]
6
[/TD][TD]
1.2
[/TD][TD]
2.45
[/TD][TD]
8.62
[/TD][TD]
0.61
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]51-100[/TD]
[TD]
7.2
[/TD][TD]
5.2
[/TD][TD]
0.2
[/TD][TD]
1.6
[/TD][TD]
6.34
[/TD][TD]
0.54
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100+[/TD]
[TD]
7.2
[/TD][TD]
4.7
[/TD][TD]
0.5
[/TD][TD]
2.87
[/TD][TD]
4.62
[/TD][TD]
0.54
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[TD][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]
2025
[/TD][TD]PPG[/TD]
[TD]TRB[/TD]
[TD]AST[/TD]
[TD]PF[/TD]
[TD]GmScr[/TD]
[TD]FG%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Top 50[/TD]
[TD]
0
[/TD][TD]
2
[/TD][TD]
3
[/TD][TD]
4
[/TD][TD]
2.9
[/TD][TD]N/A[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]51-100[/TD]
[TD]
2
[/TD][TD]
3
[/TD][TD]
0
[/TD][TD]
4
[/TD][TD]
1.1
[/TD][TD]
0.5
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]100+[/TD]
[TD]
7.75
[/TD][TD]
11
[/TD][TD]
0.75
[/TD][TD]
2.5
[/TD][TD]
9.25
[/TD][TD]
0.54
[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]
Yes, I understand he had two bad games and his numbers will go up (it also isn't fair to make a one for one with this year and last, bc it is such a small sample size), but even so...his GmScr from sports-reference is also slightly inflated in 2023-24 bc he had 2 good games vs Houston and Texas Tech out of 15 that were double digit scores. If you take those away his numbers drop significantly.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]
2024
[/TD][TD]PPG[/TD]
[TD]TRB[/TD]
[TD]AST[/TD]
[TD]PF[/TD]
[TD]GmScr[/TD]
[TD]FG%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Top 50[/TD]
[TD]
6.2
[/TD][TD]
6
[/TD][TD]
1.2
[/TD][TD]
2.45
[/TD][TD]
8.62
[/TD][TD]
0.61
[/TD][/TR]
[TR]
[TD]No HOU/Tech[/TD]
[TD]
4.8
[/TD][TD]
4.2
[/TD][TD]
0.46
[/TD][TD]
3
[/TD][TD]
2.97
[/TD][TD]
0.47
[/TD][/TR]
[/TABLE]
I know I am picking and choosing, and I am one of the biggest "Sam is a solid G5 starter, backup P5 big". So I am biased and it should be noted when I provide data. I also think he is the best big we have on roster, which is why I am disappointed with our 5 portalees.
If Luke can play like he did yest, I am less worried. His ability to space the floor, unclog the lane and allow Fears/Elvis to work could provide EXTREMELY useful. Especially if he can hit at a 2 for 5 rate from 3 every game.
TEvans4Three
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Here is the Sam data for 23-24 sorted by Highest KenPom opponent to lowest. Color codes are orange - Top 50, green 51-100, blue 100+ opponents.
snydrosooner
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Appreciate the work on this. Sam earns some of those fouls, but it seemed that the last 2 games at least one foul each game was the ref anticipating a foul before it occurred and blew the whistle. If those continue to occur all season, we will defiantly be in trouble. I believe he will still in foul trouble most games, but we need it to be the earned fouls. At least may get more time on the floor.
Northweather surprised me and hope he can continue, I was wondering on going small with Cole at the 5?
WichitaSooner
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This is exactly what I’ve been pointing out about Sam. People spend so much time talking about the Houston game that they forget what an outlier that was. I have posted his averages from the final 10 games of last season. They were … not good. The start of this season is a continuation of that. And fouling is often the result when you are a step slow because you’re playing against quicker, more explosive athletes. As much as people like to complain that he gets a bad whistle, I don’t think he gets treated differently than other bigs. A missed call here and there, sure, but he earns most of his fouls.
Providence is not helping us. I’m not sure they will have a very good season, even when Hopkins is back. They are digging themselves a hole and it will be very tough for that win to earn us much long term credit.
I'm 3 pages behind so maybe someone touched on this point or maybe more back and forths between who has a bigger butthole is happening. But since when is scheduling an easy first 4-5 games to start the season a bad thing? Not knocking you either, Maverick, just responding to the message because I agree. We are playing a whole new squad with a coach that 95% of the people hate. So why not start the season against weak teams to get your teams in some sort of rhythm? Hindsight is 20/20 but we played some close games and looked awful but my god can you imagine we go out first game against Kentucky and get absolutely butt-hammered? This thread would go ballistic. We grinded out some W's with hardly any true chemistry and now we've won a beginning of the season tourney, AND WE ARE UNDEFEATED. "Oh but the teams we played arent even that great" WHO CARES. We beat Arizona, Providence, and Louisville. You tell me at the beginning of ANY season that we'd go 3-0 against them and I would tell you to stfu. Our conference schedule will be a grind so why not build chemistry early against lower rated teams when you have 30 games to play? *goes on to continue reading the next 3 pages of 1/2 logic and 1/2 whining from people who hate their life*
I think people (myself included) are not happy with the scheduling because what happened last year in March. The argument is OU would have been in last year had they played a tougher non conference schedule. OU doesn’t have to play the Kentucky’s and Duke’s of college basketball in the non conference but a handful of teams in the 100s would definitely help more than a handful teams in the 300s. Love it or hate it the comittee really values OOC games. We learned that with Lon’s teams. Moser’s squad last year had an almost identical conference record to a couple of Lon’s teams but the difference between Lon’s teams making the tournament and Moser’s teams missing the tournament can be placed on the OOC scheduling.
CoachTalk
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But if lose 2-3 of those 100 games..:: and are avg in conference. You have no shot to get in.
I’ll say it again. Should’ve been in last year.
WichitaSooner
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You and Moser can say it all you want and it won’t make it true.
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I’ll take our version over your fairytale
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