TEvans4Three
OUHoops 2023 Bracket Champion
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Predictive Analytics. Early models used KenPom Off and Def efficiencies to create the WAB in the first place.But how is it calculated?
Here is a simpler breakdown:
"WAB stands for wins-above-bubble or wins-above-baseline1. WAB is a résumé metric that reflects how many more (or fewer) games a team has won against its schedule than a bubble-quality team would be expected to win against that same schedule.
For example, if a bubble team would be expected to go 10-10 against a team’s schedule, but the team is actually 15-5, the team’s WAB is +5.0. If the team were 5-15, the team’s WAB would be -5.0. If the team is 10-10, the WAB is even or 0 WAB.
WAB doesn’t reward teams for “good” losses or punish teams for “easy” wins. WAB avoids binning games into quadrants that are of different difficulties2. It puts an emphasis on wins and not scoring margin."
from Bless Your Chart
It is definitely not "mumbo jumbo" and it is that kind of thought process that hinders forward thinking and proper use of data.
Here is another great article that was done by the Yale Undergrad Sports and Analytics Group to show how this data can be used to predict selection. (Note they also make fun of RPI, bc the RPI does in fact, suck.)