32-31 (guess what that is)

[WichitaSooner]

All of that is baked into the metrics like kenpom, NET, etc. Over the past 2 seasons, ou’s average net is 59 and the kenpom is 43. That takes most of the subjectivity out of the discussion. Ou hasn’t won enough games but they are not a bad team. Like the announcers said in the game against tech, both ou and tech would be locks for the tournament in any other conference (their words, not mine). No one is saying it has been good enough, but the folks who cannot see any positives over the past 2 years are overlooking a lot imo.

An average NET of 59 is pretty disgusting IMHO when there are only a few dozen P5 teams. You can eliminate probably close to 200 D-1 programs when evaluating OU, and of the remaining 150 or so, we have a big edge over most since we are a P5 school with a very long history of being a successful basketball program.

And while the announcers did say that, it was clearly opinion and conjecture. Yes, we would have some extra wins if we played in other leagues. We would also have a much lower SOS and far fewer chances for quality wins, so we wouldn't have nearly the margin for error our league provides. I realize we beat Florida and Seton Hall early in the season, but if those games were played today, I would not expect a win because we have gotten worse month-by-month since the start of the season.

 

[BoulderSooner]

An average NET of 59 is pretty disgusting IMHO when there are only a few dozen P5 teams. You can eliminate probably close to 200 D-1 programs when evaluating OU, and of the remaining 150 or so, we have a big edge over most since we are a P5 school with a very long history of being a successful basketball program.

And while the announcers did say that, it was clearly opinion and conjecture. Yes, we would have some extra wins if we played in other leagues. We would also have a much lower SOS and far fewer chances for quality wins, so we wouldn't have nearly the margin for error our league provides. I realize we beat Florida and Seton Hall early in the season, but if those games were played today, I would not expect a win because we have gotten worse month-by-month since the start of the season.

the P5 is not a thing in basketball there are 6 power confs in basketball + schools like houston / Cinn / Zags / SDSU that are also right there ..

 

[TINY]

An average NET of 59 is pretty disgusting IMHO when there are only a few dozen P5 teams. You can eliminate probably close to 200 D-1 programs when evaluating OU, and of the remaining 150 or so, we have a big edge over most since we are a P5 school with a very long history of being a successful basketball program.

And while the announcers did say that, it was clearly opinion and conjecture. Yes, we would have some extra wins if we played in other leagues. We would also have a much lower SOS and far fewer chances for quality wins, so we wouldn't have nearly the margin for error our league provides. I realize we beat Florida and Seton Hall early in the season, but if those games were played today, I would not expect a win because we have gotten worse month-by-month since the start of the season.

For more context, Lon’s final year we were 39th kenpom and Moser’s 1st year at ou finished 30th. The last time ou finished sub-30 in kenpom was our final 4 year w buddy. In other words, Moser’s 1st team was rated higher than all of Lon’s teams since the final 4 year.

 

[WichitaSooner]

the P5 is not a thing in basketball there are 6 power confs in basketball + schools like houston / Cinn / Zags / SDSU that are also right ther ..

LOL you are completely missing the forest for the trees. There are lots of conferences that want to be considered the sixth (or seventh) power conference. The Big East, AAC, and Mountain West all try to join that discussion at various points. The fact remains, we have a huge edge over the vast majority of conferences and teams when it comes to scheduling and opportunities to build a resume and pad our NET.

 

[WichitaSooner]

For more context, Lon’s final year we were 39th kenpom and Moser’s 1st year at ou finished 30th. The last time ou finished sub-30 in kenpom was our final 4 year w buddy. In other words, Moser’s 1st team was rated higher than all of Lon’s teams since the final 4 year.

Kenpom is one metric. NET, right or wrong, carries more weight. Most importantly, Lon's team played in the only postseason tourney that matters virtually every year. Moser is yet to get there at OU. If Moser could learn how to win the close games that predictive metrics like KenPom probably suggest we should, then he would be onto something.

 

[BoulderSooner]

LOL you are completely missing the forest for the trees. There are lots of conferences that want to be considered the sixth (or seventh) power conference. The Big East, AAC, and Mountain West all try to join that discussion at various points. The fact remains, we have a huge edge over the vast majority of conferences and teams when it comes to scheduling and opportunities to build a resume and pad our NET.

the big east has been in the top 3 every year since it has existed in its current form .. it is not "trying" to do anything

 

[TINY]

Kenpom is one metric. NET, right or wrong, carries more weight. Most importantly, Lon's team played in the only postseason tourney that matters virtually every year. Moser is yet to get there at OU. If Moser could learn how to win the close games that predictive metrics like KenPom probably suggest we should, then he would be onto something.

The net is a newer model which is why I used kenpom. Kenpom is better imo, too. But the NET rankings:

Moser ‘22 - 39
Lon ‘21 - 36
‘20 - 46
‘19 - 37

 

[skyvue]

The net is a newer model which is why I used kenpom. Kenpom is better imo, too. But the NET rankings:

Moser ‘22 - 39
Lon ‘21 - 36
‘20 - 46
‘19 - 37

You left out a year:

Moser '23 - 77 (as of today)

I don't think anyone is focused on last year now. They're focused on this season when we all--and not unreasonably so--expected us to be at least marginally better, not worse.

 

[TINY]

You left out a year:

Moser '23 - 77 (as of today)

I don't think anyone is focused on last year now. They're focused on this season when we all--and not unreasonably so--expected us to be at least marginally better, not worse.

If you look back a few posts I included that. Many said last year was terrible too, which is false. Lon had a year in the middle of his tenure which would have been in the 100s NET. Should we have fired him after that season?

 

[cowboysooner]

I don't think we are worse this year. I just think our competition is markedly improved and we have played a remarkably more difficult schedule. No way to really know, but I believe this year's team would beat last years team more times than not. B 12 this year is insane. Never seen anything like it. Tx Tech is fighting for last place with us and that is a crazy talented team. Aircraft carriers in the middle, a load of shooters, a load of tall wing players and good guards.

Like everyone else, I am bummed about this year's record. But, outside of a few games, the kids have won or been very competitive all the way to the wire. I like the freshman that have played, interested to see the two that haven't played, and like the look of the two we signed in November. Grant is a really good player. So, hopefully we can keep our main pieces, the two newcomers signed in November are as good as we hope, and we can pick up one or two difference makers in the portal.

I don't think we need to be much more than 4-5 possessions a game better to win 20 games and finish in the top half of the big 12 next year. At least, that is what I am hoping for.

I am absolutely not in favor of firing Moser after two years. This would be irresponsible financially and foolishly premature in my mind. Got to give someone 3 or 4 years when they walk into the situation he walked into.

 

[WichitaSooner]

If you look back a few posts I included that. Many said last year was terrible too, which is false. Lon had a year in the middle of his tenure which would have been in the 100s NET. Should we have fired him after that season?

Tell ya what, if Moser makes four straight tourneys, takes us to the FF, then graduates three studs and has his best returning player miss most of the next season, I’ll give him a pass.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I don't think we are worse this year. I just think our competition is markedly improved and we have played a remarkably more difficult schedule. No way to really know, but I believe this year's team would beat last years team more times than not. B 12 this year is insane. Never seen anything like it. Tx Tech is fighting for last place with us and that is a crazy talented team. Aircraft carriers in the middle, a load of shooters, a load of tall wing players and good guards.

Like everyone else, I am bummed about this year's record. But, outside of a few games, the kids have won or been very competitive all the way to the wire. I like the freshman that have played, interested to see the two that haven't played, and like the look of the two we signed in November. Grant is a really good player. So, hopefully we can keep our main pieces, the two newcomers signed in November are as good as we hope, and we can pick up one or two difference makers in the portal.

I don't think we need to be much more than 4-5 possessions a game better to win 20 games and finish in the top half of the big 12 next year. At least, that is what I am hoping for.

I am absolutely not in favor of firing Moser after two years. This would be irresponsible financially and foolishly premature in my mind. Got to give someone 3 or 4 years when they walk into the situation he walked into.

“Outside of a few games” is quite a statement. We had five games in a seven-game stretch where we were embarrassed. That should happen once or twice a year, max. And this team is nowhere close to 20 wins and the top half of the league. Making the winning plays at crucial times is precisely what separates good teams from bad teams. Almost every team in the country could say they are “close” to having a few more wins. Good teams actually make the plays to get those wins. We are closer to 10 wins than we are 20. And barring a miracle, we will end the season with 3 or 4 wins in 19 league games. How anyone can say we are close is beyond me.

 

[TEvans4Three]

“Outside of a few games” is quite a statement. We had five games in a seven-game stretch where we were embarrassed. That should happen once or twice a year, max. And this team is nowhere close to 20 wins and the top half of the league. Making the winning plays at crucial times is precisely what separates good teams from bad teams. Almost every team in the country could say they are “close” to having a few more wins. Good teams actually make the plays to get those wins. We are closer to 10 wins than we are 20. And barring a miracle, we will end the season with 3 or 4 wins in 19 league games. How anyone can say we are close is beyond me.

We are close. Does that help?

 

[jrich02]

All of this debate about NET, records, etc

But, I can't get past that PM had seen Noland and J Groves since last off season and still believed they should be in the starting line up and playing major minutes when the season started and took so long into the season to adjust.

Identifying and evaluating talent is the biggest part of coaching. That's why Kelvin succeeded her and Lon was so good at that with guards.

 

[WTSooner]

All of this debate about NET, records, etc

But, I can't get past that PM had seen Noland and J Groves since last off season and still believed they should be in the starting line up and playing major minutes when the season started and took so long into the season to adjust.

Identifying and evaluating talent is the biggest part of coaching. That's why Kelvin succeeded her and Lon was so good at that with guards.

The only argument I'll make to that is that his alternatives, for the most part, were true freshman. It's very likely that those guys (the freshman) weren't ready early in the season. OU football fans always mess this up IMO when a freshman gets on the field late in the season and looks good, and they wonder why he didn't start game 1. Those freshman that are playing now, they've had 3-4 months of games/practices since those early games. A lot can change, in terms of their development, over that time.

 

[skyvue]

I don't think we are worse this year. I just think our competition is markedly improved and we have played a remarkably more difficult schedule.

OU's strength of schedule is currently #2 in Kenpom; last year it was #7. Not what I'd call a markedly more difficult schedule.

 

[hoopsaustin]

All of this debate about NET, records, etc

But, I can't get past that PM had seen Noland and J Groves since last off season and still believed they should be in the starting line up and playing major minutes when the season started and took so long into the season to adjust.

Identifying and evaluating talent is the biggest part of coaching. That's why Kelvin succeeded her and Lon was so good at that with guards.

This. This indicates to me that he doesn't know what he's doing

 

[Boom Soon]

I feel like we're getting into the weeds too much with NET and past records/schools. Just look at the product on the floor. In year two. Zero true team improvement. Alot of regression from last year. This is the same darn team that lost to Sam Houston in game one. That is not building anything. It doesn't matter if Moser is a quick fix or a long term builder. THERE IS NOTHING TO BUILD OFF OF THIS YEAR. The ONLY hope Sooner fans have next year is in freshman. That the freshman this year stay and that the freshmen coming into next can make a huge difference.

This doesn't mean Moser can't turn it around, but there is zero reason to be optimistic right now. Because the program is in a worse state than in April of 2021 when Lon left.

 

[SoonerDutch]

And while the announcers did say that, it was clearly opinion and conjecture. Yes, we would have some extra wins if we played in other leagues. We would also have a much lower SOS and far fewer chances for quality wins, so we wouldn't have nearly the margin for error our league provides.

I would largely agree with your opinion but caveat that I think this team in “an average league” would be a conventional bubble team as opposed to being uncommonly frustrating. They would likely miss out on the tournament due to the drop in SOS not making up for the number of additional wins (although look at Rutgers last season) but the entire narrative/sentiment around the program would be far different. Greater number of wins, less opportunities for absolute bloodbaths.

I don’t think that solves the issue necessarily for diehards on a message board but the overall sentiment around the program would be far less listless/more optimistic.

 

[TEvans4Three]

I would largely agree with your opinion but caveat that I think this team in “an average league” would be a conventional bubble team as opposed to being uncommonly frustrating. They would likely miss out on the tournament due to the drop in SOS not making up for the number of additional wins (although look at Rutgers last season) but the entire narrative/sentiment around the program would be far different. Greater number of wins, less opportunities for absolute bloodbaths.

I don’t think that solves the issue necessarily for diehards on a message board but the overall sentiment around the program would be far less listless/more optimistic.

Nail on the head.

I think you look at a comparable teams, Florida and UNC.

Florida is currently 7-8 in the SEC, will finish 10-8 with some close games and losses vs Top 25 teams. Just outside the bubble.

UNC is currently 9-8 in the ACC. First Four Out, currently.

The difference is UF is 1-9 vs Top25 Team, UNC is 0-3, OU is 3-10. UF's worst loss is to 88 Vandy, UNC is 81 Wake Forest, ours is to 73 SHSU. UF's SOS is 17, UNC 38, and OU is 2.

We are just in a markedly harder league and that fact cannot be ignored.