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The model he uses means very little to me. All I know is, he’s right a lot more than he’s wrong.

I didn’t know much about the professor either, but I remember his prediction in 2016 when Trump pulled off the upset over a confident Hillary that landed several well known Hollywood celebs and main stream news broadcasters on suicide watch.

If he’s right, do you mind keeping an eye on my friend ABD on election night? ;)

Ada, I tell you what... if Donald Trump wins, I will drive to Ada and buy you lunch/dinner. If Biden wins, I will drive to Ada and you buy me lunch/dinner wearing a Biden hat or T-Shirt. :)

Deal?
 
lmao

Without COVID, he wins going away. Period.

I won’t argue with that. I’m on the fence for who to vote for in November, but that wasn’t the case pre-Covid. The economy was doing well, the stock market was doing well (somehow still is), we finally had a President who wasn’t willing to further weaken the country to bow to China, and we finally had a President who stopped rubber-stamping H1-B visa increases every year. All that said, his leadership through this pandemic has been nothing short of awful...I don’t know of anyone in the political “middle” who thinks differently about his leadership thru this crisis.
 
First, that isn't true.

Second, that's the thing about being President.... you don't often get to govern without some kind of crisis, and you either handle it well or you don't. Bush had Gulf War, Bush II had 9/11 (and served two terms), Obama had the 2008 recession (and served two terms), FDR had the great recession and WWII, etc.

FDR was in the middle of the great recession (it was actually in its 8th year) and won the electoral college 523-8. And that was the worst economic crisis in our history. He carried 46 states. Do you know why? Because he was an amazing leader and an amazing President.

Look, lets lay out facts.

  • The wall has been a total failure. Can anyone really say it hasn't been?
  • Mexico didn't pay for the wall.... Can anyone really say they did?
  • Nobody likes the tax bill except super wealthy people
  • 39% of the country approves of his handling of Covid-19
  • He is inciting a race/culture war
  • 35% of the country is happy with the tax bill, again, his key legislation
  • He's been impeached
  • He promised to eliminate the federal debt, he made it worse, WAY WORSE
  • He promised to balance the federal budget, nowhere close to that
  • He promised to bring a new/better Iran deal... hasn't done it
  • He promised to get out of war and bring the troops home. Hasn't done it
  • He misled and lied on Covid-19, and then said he takes no responsibility

He's definitely not wrong all the time... But outside of his bluster, this has been a very non-productive presidency.

You say he has accomplished a lot. What has he accomplished that is popular with Americans? Getting a better NAFTA deal is a good thing. Yelling at NATO countries to pay more is a good thing. Doesn't mean they will, but he yelled at them. He cancelled the Paris Deal. He replaced two Supreme Court justices, but that was because one retired and Mitch McConnell stole the other. Not like Trump had to do much to replace a judge.

The rest is small ball. It's been very unproductive from a policy perspective.

I don't think he would have won without Covid... It would have been closer maybe, but he would have lost. At this point he only has a hard-core base. He only has the "if I shot someone on 5th avenue" crowd. People who won't abandon him NO MATTER WHAT. People are tired of him. Oklahoma is a cult state, so it's hard to tell if you live here, but a lot of the country is tired of him. Oklahoma is to Trumpers and super conservatives what Utah is to mormons, so again, its an echo chamber here if you are a conservative. He started a trade war that he can't win. He claims he's making billions in tariffs, but he just has to turn around and give it to farmers he screwed over. Getting the tariff money isn't helping A SINGLE AMERICAN. It's nothing. He just gives it to farmers to cover their losses as a result of the trade war.

If he did things well, and was popular, he would win. But he doesn't, and he isn't, so he wont. It's that simple.

Must really suck being you and thinking that much of any part of the above is factual content.

I'll pick off an easy one first. Damn near everybody that pays taxes as an individual is paying LESS than they were before his tax bill. It might only be 1 or 2% less, but nearly everybody is paying less. Those that aren't paying less tend to be in the upper-middle class. Those that do quite well for themselves, but aren't filthy rich. Losing the mortgage interest and in effect, being forced back down into taking the standard deduction affected some in this group negatively. But even those bringing home $20k a year paid LESS in taxes after that bill. That is factual because I've seen the tax returns. So I'm not sure how "nobody likes the tax bill except the wealthy." Most people enjoy paying in fewer tax dollars.

The rest of it is typical abd nonsense. Presenting opinion as fact. Trump is inciting a race war? Give me an f'ing break. Who was President when we had all the rioting and the first waive of this protesting, anti-police non-sense? I'll give you a hint, his named rhymes with Smobama.
 
Ada, I tell you what... if Donald Trump wins, I will drive to Ada and buy you lunch/dinner. If Biden wins, I will drive to Ada and you buy me lunch/dinner wearing a Biden hat or T-Shirt. :)

Deal?

Sure, why not? I will look forward to it.

If Biden wins, I will not lose one minute of sleep worrying about it. I’m secure in my faith and in my belief this country will rise above anything a has-been like Joe might do to undo all of Donald Trump’s accomplishments. I’m more concerned about you, and if you can survive another four years of DJT?

Seriously, I’m worried about you! �� Hatred can be a powerful thing.
 
I won’t argue with that. I’m on the fence for who to vote for in November, but that wasn’t the case pre-Covid. The economy was doing well, the stock market was doing well (somehow still is), we finally had a President who wasn’t willing to further weaken the country to bow to China, and we finally had a President who stopped rubber-stamping H1-B visa increases every year. All that said, his leadership through this pandemic has been nothing short of awful...I don’t know of anyone in the political “middle” who thinks differently about his leadership thru this crisis.

For me it's still a no-brainer, even with Trump acting crazy these days. I vote policy. If Trump wins, at some point the economy will be back up and humming at record levels. If Biden wins, he might forget he was even elected and forget to show up to his inauguration.
 
First, that isn't true.

Second, that's the thing about being President.... you don't often get to govern without some kind of crisis, and you either handle it well or you don't. Bush had Gulf War, Bush II had 9/11 (and served two terms), Obama had the 2008 recession (and served two terms), FDR had the great recession and WWII, etc.

FDR was in the middle of the great recession (it was actually in its 8th year) and won the electoral college 523-8. And that was the worst economic crisis in our history. He carried 46 states. Do you know why? Because he was an amazing leader and an amazing President.

Look, lets lay out facts.

  • The wall has been a total failure. Can anyone really say it hasn't been?
  • Mexico didn't pay for the wall.... Can anyone really say they did?
  • Nobody likes the tax bill except super wealthy people
  • 39% of the country approves of his handling of Covid-19
  • He is inciting a race/culture war
  • 35% of the country is happy with the tax bill, again, his key legislation
  • He's been impeached
  • He promised to eliminate the federal debt, he made it worse, WAY WORSE
  • He promised to balance the federal budget, nowhere close to that
  • He promised to bring a new/better Iran deal... hasn't done it
  • He promised to get out of war and bring the troops home. Hasn't done it
  • He misled and lied on Covid-19, and then said he takes no responsibility

He's definitely not wrong all the time... But outside of his bluster, this has been a very non-productive presidency.

You say he has accomplished a lot. What has he accomplished that is popular with Americans? Getting a better NAFTA deal is a good thing. Yelling at NATO countries to pay more is a good thing. Doesn't mean they will, but he yelled at them. He cancelled the Paris Deal. He replaced two Supreme Court justices, but that was because one retired and Mitch McConnell stole the other. Not like Trump had to do much to replace a judge.

The rest is small ball. It's been very unproductive from a policy perspective.

I don't think he would have won without Covid... It would have been closer maybe, but he would have lost. At this point he only has a hard-core base. He only has the "if I shot someone on 5th avenue" crowd. People who won't abandon him NO MATTER WHAT. People are tired of him. Oklahoma is a cult state, so it's hard to tell if you live here, but a lot of the country is tired of him. Oklahoma is to Trumpers and super conservatives what Utah is to mormons, so again, its an echo chamber here if you are a conservative. He started a trade war that he can't win. He claims he's making billions in tariffs, but he just has to turn around and give it to farmers he screwed over. Getting the tariff money isn't helping A SINGLE AMERICAN. It's nothing. He just gives it to farmers to cover their losses as a result of the trade war.

If he did things well, and was popular, he would win. But he doesn't, and he isn't, so he wont. It's that simple.

You are so wrong. About everything.
 
Sure, why not? I will look forward to it.

If Biden wins, I will not lose one minute of sleep worrying about it. I’m secure in my faith and in my belief this country will rise above anything a has-been like Joe might do to undo all of Donald Trump’s accomplishments. I’m more concerned about you, and if you can survive another four years of DJT?

Seriously, I’m worried about you! �� Hatred can be a powerful thing.

Thank you Ada.....I'm with you my man. To me, it doesn't matter who is President....I will not let that affect how I go about my business nor will I use it as an excuse as to why I think the country is good/bad. To most on the left, politics is their god, but to "simple" folks like you, me, and many others.....our faith guides and directs us and we know that everything will eventually be ok....regardless.

These traditional Judeo/Christian values are constantly under attack in our current culture. And if your beliefs are not rooted in this particular worldview, it's ok....I am not going to condemn you nor am I going to disparage your freedom to live your life the way you want to live it. The best way Ada and I (and others) can live our lives is by example. Thus, I lean on these verses:

"We also have joy with our troubles, because we know that these troubles produce patience. And patience produces character, and character produces hope. And this hope will never disappoint us, because God has poured out his love to fill our hearts".
 

I just read that article and it's truly bizarre! He says Trump did "very well in the primaries." That's so weird. Incumbents don't face primary challenges. The primaries are a formality for the incumbent. The last time an incumbent faced a real primary challenge was in 1980. How could this ever be predictive? That's like saying, "OU did great in the spring game, they're going to win the national championship!"

Picking the winner of the presidential election isn't some amazing feat. Most years anyone can tell who is going to win. This guy got lucky in 2016 but his model makes zero sense and he still hasn't updated his website since May.
 
I just read that article and it's truly bizarre! He says Trump did "very well in the primaries." That's so weird. Incumbents don't face primary challenges. The primaries are a formality for the incumbent. The last time an incumbent faced a real primary challenge was in 1980. How could this ever be predictive? That's like saying, "OU did great in the spring game, they're going to win the national championship!"

Picking the winner of the presidential election isn't some amazing feat. Most years anyone can tell who is going to win. This guy got lucky in 2016 but his model makes zero sense and he still hasn't updated his website since May.

Yeah, it’s almost like he hasn’t been right 24 out of the last 26 times, or some such nonsense.
 
Yeah, it’s almost like he hasn’t been right 24 out of the last 26 times, or some such nonsense.

Like I said, it's not hard to pick the winners most years. What's funny to me is that he says he might change his prediction based on what's happening with Covid-19 and the economy. It's too late! The primaries are over and his prediction is locked in.
 
Thank you Ada.....I'm with you my man. To me, it doesn't matter who is President....I will not let that affect how I go about my business nor will I use it as an excuse as to why I think the country is good/bad. To most on the left, politics is their god, but to "simple" folks like you, me, and many others.....our faith guides and directs us and we know that everything will eventually be ok....regardless.

These traditional Judeo/Christian values are constantly under attack in our current culture. And if your beliefs are not rooted in this particular worldview, it's ok....I am not going to condemn you nor am I going to disparage your freedom to live your life the way you want to live it. The best way Ada and I (and others) can live our lives is by example. Thus, I lean on these verses:

"We also have joy with our troubles, because we know that these troubles produce patience. And patience produces character, and character produces hope. And this hope will never disappoint us, because God has poured out his love to fill our hearts".

Well said, stormspencer! Confirms we’re definitely on the same page in our faith and the way we go about our daily life. In troubled times like this, I honestly don’t know what I would do if I wasn’t secure in the knowledge that “God is our refuge and strength, an ever-present help in trouble. Therefore, we will not fear...

Stay safe, my friend! You will be in my prayers.
 
Yeah, it’s almost like he hasn’t been right 24 out of the last 26 times, or some such nonsense.

and an octopus predicted 8 SB winners in a row. there's also a chicken at the Ripley's museum by the 39th street pier that will play you in tic tac toe. ho hum
 
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I'll pick off an easy one first. Damn near everybody that pays taxes as an individual is paying LESS than they were before his tax bill. It might only be 1 or 2% less, but nearly everybody is paying less. Those that aren't paying less tend to be in the upper-middle class. Those that do quite well for themselves, but aren't filthy rich. Losing the mortgage interest and in effect, being forced back down into taking the standard deduction affected some in this group negatively. But even those bringing home $20k a year paid LESS in taxes after that bill. That is factual because I've seen the tax returns. So I'm not sure how "nobody likes the tax bill except the wealthy." Most people enjoy paying in fewer tax dollars.

Because it saved most people, as you said, a tiny amount... And it hurt the country a lot. It actually doubled the amount of large corporations that pay no taxes. NO TAXES. You paid 25% (or so), they paid 0%.

Some names you may recognize that paid no taxes:
  • Amazon
  • Netflix
  • Delta Airlines
  • Chevron
  • General Motors
  • Occidental Petroleum
  • Honeywell
  • Deere
  • American Electric Power (AEP)
  • Principal Financial
  • Devon Energy
  • Halliburton
  • IBM
  • Whirpool
  • Goodyear Tires
  • Aramark

Here's what I will say about this, in my attempt to be reasonable and fair.... I think it's a rig, but the only way to know that for sure is if the POINT of the tax cuts comes through. The reason regular people get talked into this is because the basic idea is:

Cut taxes for corporations and the wealthy
  • They have more money to grow, expand, etc
  • They make more money
  • Then they will raise your wages, provide you better benefits, provide better jobs, etc.
  • They grow and prosper
  • You do better, not because you got a tiny tax cut, because your employer improved your quality of life.

That is the sell. The sell isn't really that you got a tiny tax cut. It was that it purposefully made conditions better for your employer. If those things don't happen, it was either a con or the concept of "trickle down" doesn't work in the first place. What I see happen in the past is that the corporations and wealthy grow SIGNIFICANTLY, wages stay stagnant, benefits stay the same or get worse, etc.

It's actually a pretty complicated comparison to see if wages (and the lesser discussed benefits) are stagnant, rising, falling... Because it all depends on what time period you are comparing to.... Then you have to factor inflation and a host of other items.

What I believe to be true in all that, is that regular people are taking less of the pie. I believe the facts back that up. Even if across the board wages increased a little, once factoring in inflation, sometimes they are stagnant, sometimes its a loss, and sometimes its a tiny gain... but the pie keeps getting bigger.

1.) Pensions are gone in the private industry, that took away some of the pie.

2.) According to the Kaiser Foundation, employees are taking on more and more of the cost of healthcare. As healthcare gets more expensive, employers are typically passing more and more of that cost to the employee. I am confident a lot of you have experienced this. That takes away some of the pie.

3.) You pay a higher percentage of your income in taxes than extremely wealthy people do. That shifts the pie in their favor.

4.) The cost of education has gone up over 200% since the 90's... Wages haven't nearly increased that much. That shifts part of the pie. You have less money.

5.) Car prices are up 30% in the last 10 years. Your wages aren't up 30%. So what they do is offer 0% interest and stretch the loan out 7 years so you can still kind of afford it. That shifts the pie. Cars are one example, but its true of most things.

The pie is getting a lot bigger.... but your growth isn't. Go look at the data. It's right there.

That's a long post, based on the responses I wanted to try and provide more rationale in a fair way.

In my opinion, there is a better way to balance these things. It has to change. I've posted many times...I keep saying it, but 42% of the country makes less than $15 an hour... The huge percentage of people living month to month, the amount of household debt, suicides, foreclosures, millions of people are evicted from their homes every year, bankruptcies,1 in 5 on anti-depressants, millions are alcoholics, etc. The APA said 45% of Americans lie awake at night regularly due to financial stress... Nearly 70% of the country is stressed about money and bills. Americans, in the richest country on earth, are actually some of the most stressed people on the planet. We know why. It's right there in front of us.

Something is wrong. In my opinion, it's the imbalance. I don't think people can handle it. The amount of working hours, the amount of stress, how hard it is for so many Americans to literally just get to the next month. Etc. It's an improper construction of society.

How that relates to Trump is, I don't know that he is doing much of anything to remedy what I see the problem to be. I do hate him as a person, because he is loathsome. But from a policy perspective, I honestly believe he is making what I described above worse. That's why I want him gone.

I think you guys will find that less emotional, and more rational. I probably won't harp on those things again, lol. (I stress the world probably). :)
 
Because it saved most people, as you said, a tiny amount... And it hurt the country a lot. It actually doubled the amount of large corporations that pay no taxes. NO TAXES. You paid 25% (or so), they paid 0%.

Some names you may recognize that paid no taxes:
  • Amazon
  • Netflix
  • Delta Airlines
  • Chevron
  • General Motors
  • Occidental Petroleum
  • Honeywell
  • Deere
  • American Electric Power (AEP)
  • Principal Financial
  • Devon Energy
  • Halliburton
  • IBM
  • Whirpool
  • Goodyear Tires
  • Aramark

Here's what I will say about this, in my attempt to be reasonable and fair.... I think it's a rig, but the only way to know that for sure is if the POINT of the tax cuts comes through. The reason regular people get talked into this is because the basic idea is:

Cut taxes for corporations and the wealthy
  • They have more money to grow, expand, etc
  • They make more money
  • Then they will raise your wages, provide you better benefits, provide better jobs, etc.
  • They grow and prosper
  • You do better, not because you got a tiny tax cut, because your employer improved your quality of life.

That is the sell. The sell isn't really that you got a tiny tax cut. It was that it purposefully made conditions better for your employer. If those things don't happen, it was either a con or the concept of "trickle down" doesn't work in the first place. What I see happen in the past is that the corporations and wealthy grow SIGNIFICANTLY, wages stay stagnant, benefits stay the same or get worse, etc.

It's actually a pretty complicated comparison to see if wages (and the lesser discussed benefits) are stagnant, rising, falling... Because it all depends on what time period you are comparing to.... Then you have to factor inflation and a host of other items.

What I believe to be true in all that, is that regular people are taking less of the pie. I believe the facts back that up. Even if across the board wages increased a little, once factoring in inflation, sometimes they are stagnant, sometimes its a loss, and sometimes its a tiny gain... but the pie keeps getting bigger.

1.) Pensions are gone in the private industry, that took away some of the pie.

2.) According to the Kaiser Foundation, employees are taking on more and more of the cost of healthcare. As healthcare gets more expensive, employers are typically passing more and more of that cost to the employee. I am confident a lot of you have experienced this. That takes away some of the pie.

3.) You pay a higher percentage of your income in taxes than extremely wealthy people do. That shifts the pie in their favor.

4.) The cost of education has gone up over 200% since the 90's... Wages haven't nearly increased that much. That shifts part of the pie. You have less money.

5.) Car prices are up 30% in the last 10 years. Your wages aren't up 30%. So what they do is offer 0% interest and stretch the loan out 7 years so you can still kind of afford it. That shifts the pie. Cars are one example, but its true of most things.

The pie is getting a lot bigger.... but your growth isn't. Go look at the data. It's right there.

That's a long post, based on the responses I wanted to try and provide more rationale in a fair way.

In my opinion, there is a better way to balance these things. It has to change. I've posted many times...I keep saying it, but 42% of the country makes less than $15 an hour... The huge percentage of people living month to month, the amount of household debt, suicides, foreclosures, millions of people are evicted from their homes every year, bankruptcies,1 in 5 on anti-depressants, millions are alcoholics, etc. The APA said 45% of Americans lie awake at night regularly due to financial stress... Nearly 70% of the country is stressed about money and bills. Americans, in the richest country on earth, are actually some of the most stressed people on the planet. We know why. It's right there in front of us.

Something is wrong. In my opinion, it's the imbalance. I don't think people can handle it. The amount of working hours, the amount of stress, how hard it is for so many Americans to literally just get to the next month. Etc. It's an improper construction of society.

How that relates to Trump is, I don't know that he is doing much of anything to remedy what I see the problem to be. I do hate him as a person, because he is loathsome. But from a policy perspective, I honestly believe he is making what I described above worse. That's why I want him gone.

I think you guys will find that less emotional, and more rational. I probably won't harp on those things again, lol. (I stress the world probably). :)

I know that some of those companies you listed operate on a very small margin. So they may not have paid taxes because they lost money that year.

As with most things, there is a balance. Companies need to pay their fair share but they don't need to be handcuffed by taxes that they fold.

Also, I believe that the US brought in more tax revenue following the cuts than the year before. So is it really costing us?
 
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I do agree that people are not making enough money and it leads to many of the problems in this country.

We differ though on the cause of this in some aspects.
 
Another point on the companies paying no taxes.....in a lot of cases they are paying no taxes because like has been said, they aren't profiting as much as one would imagine (not true of all of them, obviously), or they are doing other things with their money in the way of charitable giving. I've said it before and I'll say it again, you tax them more, they give less. They cut jobs. They send jobs overseas. You can't just look at the "they pay no taxes" part of the equation, without looking at the other side. I assume you are against Tulsa giving tax breaks or whatever concessions to get Tesla here? If not, why? Because those jobs being here are worth the concessions.

You don't think the lower corporate taxes are worth benefit that comes along with that. I, and others, tend to think it is worth it. No right or wrong answer as you try to make it out to be, simply two distinct thought processes about how to go about things.

Two big things need to change:
1. The people that ***** and complain about the wealthy, and large corporations, need to create and run successful companies of their own. Then you can do whatever you want. Pay whatever taxes you want. Donate as you want. Hire and fire as you want. Change the world as you are able. Don't like our progress in renewable energy? Create a company and accomplish what you are asking others to accomplish.

2. I do agree that minimum wage needs to be higher. It should, to some extent, mirror the cost of inflation. $15 sounds ridiculous to me though, and that is the number that gets thrown out a bunch. Nobody should make $15/hour taking orders at a fast food restaurant.
 
I know that some of those companies you missed operate on a very small margin. So they may not have paid taxes because they lost money that year.

As with most things, there is a balance. Companies need to pay their fair share but they don't need to be handcuffed by taxes that they fold.

Also, I believe that the US brought in more tax revenue following the cuts than the year before. So is it really costing us?

those companies all pay lots and lots of taxes ...

they pay

Payroll taxes
property taxes
royalty taxes
sales taxes
in some cases import taxes
ect ect ect ..

now in a particular year do they always pay INCOME taxes no ..

but it is a bigger conversation then that
 
those companies all pay lots and lots of taxes ...

they pay

Payroll taxes
property taxes
royalty taxes
sales taxes
in some cases import taxes
ect ect ect ..

now in a particular year do they always pay INCOME taxes no ..

but it is a bigger conversation then that

correct.

I remember people got pissed a few years ago because the papers ran stories about how local oil companies paid zero income taxes...i think it was probably during the teacher strike. The papers conveniently only listed how much revenue these companie brought in but didn't look at how much money they lost
 
I do agree that people are not making enough money and it leads to many of the problems in this country.

We differ though on the cause of this in some aspects.

Probably the best response I have had on here after posting the information about society as a whole. At least an acknowledgement that there is a problem on some level. I think its the first time that has happened.

Thank you.
 
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