Great post!he can’t be the coach next year, as we head into the sec, if he doesn’t want to be here. unfortunately it’s time to move on. not trying to be bombastic. he’s got one foot out the door already. let him go even if he doesn’t get offered. the program deserves better. i’m hurt that it’s gotten to this point, in the middle of conference play while having a much better season. siu? seriously? bye felicia.
Warning: this will be a lengthy post. I can feel it, lol. Apologies in advance.
Not an insider, thankfully. Personally, and to each their own, I don't read OUI for basketball coverage and never will. Unless they hire someone I care to read, I guess.
Anyway, I apply logic, common sense, read signs, social media, etc. Always right? Lololol, no, of course not. Neither are insiders, lol, and OU sources are wrong a lot.
In my opinion, right now, I'd label it more likely than not that Moser is OU's coach next year.
Why?
Money. Finding a match.
Are there rumors that Moser is wanting to leave OU? Yes. Rumors of his wife being unhappy? Yes.
Okay. Cool.
But let's look at some obvious stuff here....
Buyout: $6M
OU salary: roughly $3M per year with an ability to increase that #, surely.
Here's the hard part to guess right now...
How does OU finish out the season? They have 7 tough (regular season) games left (OK St being the most obvious winnable game left). Let's say OU finds a way to win 3 out of those 7. They would be 21-10 (9-9) heading into the B12 tourney. Let's just give them the 8th seed and have them play 9th seed Cincy. Let's say they win and then lose to Houston (#1 seed). I'm far too lazy to break it all down (each B12 team and predicting their finishes). Anyway, that puts OU at 22-11 and that likely gets them seeded in the NCAAT in the 6-8 range. Even if they lose in the first round of the B12 tourney, OU will be dancing. From there, who the hell knows but I'm guessing OU can, at least, win one game. We'll just see on their matchup, etc.
Point: is getting to the dance enough for Joe C to renegotiate with Moser especially with unhappiness/departure rumors? I say yes. It's not hard to imagine Joe C being able to offer $4M+...with the SEC cash, etc. Let's just say, hypothetically, OU offers Moser a new 3-4 year deal at $4.2M per year.
Or I guess, hopefully not, OU wins only one game during their last 7 and all hell breaks loose. They would be 19-12 and would need to have success in the B12 tourney. But I guess the question then becomes, would anyone want him? Lol, including OU. All bets are off if OU collapses.
Now let's look at some of the rumored programs out there currently and/or possible openings...as we head into a crazy coach search season:
DePaul.
Obviously, DePaul gets Moser back to the Windy City. But....
1. Is Moser at the top of their list? Personally, I don't think he's target #1. Somewhat based on the below stuff.
2. Does DePaul have the financial backing to A) settle with their last coach B) pay Moser's buyout C) pay him $3M+ per year + increase their assistant coaching salary pool D) fund NIL...etc?
DePaul paid their last coach, Tony Stubblefield, about $1.5M per year. Although we may never get told it, the thought is...they settled on a buyout in the range of $1.5-2.5M to fire him.
so....
DePaul is going to have to get super serious if they want Moser. They'll have to more than double their annual salary pool (for assistants too, I assume, because Armon Gates is from Chicago and is a must add if Moser went there), they'd have to find $6M to buy Moser out, on top of their commitment to Stubblefield's buyout, and commit more money to their program to achieve success. You could easily say they need to dedicate $12M+ just next year alone.
That's a lot of money. I don't see it happening. DePaul's AD (whole department) is asscheeks and seems borderline dysfunctional.
IMO, they'll make a cheaper hire, somewhat mediocre by public opinion, because they have no idea what they're doing and they don't/won't have the finances to get Moser. But you know, we'll see.
I kind of see it being Bobby Hurley but guessing what a terrible AD is going to do is super hard. Hurley would be bringing Nick Irvin with him. Nick is the brother of Mac (AAU coach still I think), Lance (former head coach at Chicago State), and Mike (Chicago area high school coach). The Irvins are (southside) Chicago legends. Mac Irvin Sr is the originator. He passed away back in 2011.
Hurley is already a good recruiter and IMO, would crush it at DePaul with the Irvins in tow. Hurley could pull in some NYC kids as well (big city to big city...much easier than getting them to go to Tempe). I don't know if they'd win at DePaul, who does, but on the surface I'd actually like the hire. Plus, Hurley (DePaul) vs Hurley (UCONN) would be worth the price of admission.
Saint Louis.
Fresh off a rumor I just read this morning, Chris Mack, former Xavier/Louisville head coach, is wanting to get back into coaching (that much is publicly known if you look at Twitter) and Saint Louis supposedly interests him.
And it's kind of similar to DePaul financially. They'd have to come up with a lot of money to get Moser.
Even if they negotiate Ford's buyout down, even to half of the rumored $10M, they'd also have to pay A) Moser's buyout B) more annually (Ford makes about $2.5M per).
I think the financial stuff will eliminate Moser because there are better, cheaper options out there like Mack. Assuming Ford is fired (he sucks) of course.
The A10 is a good conference but holy ****, it would be epically idiotic to leave OU for Saint Louis. Moser coached Loyola when they were in the Missouri Valley but Loyola is now in the A10...that would be going backwards. If you're that unhappy, seek counseling. Kidding, a little.
Indiana.
Definitely no offense to CoachTalk but it's not happening. Indiana, if they fire "Woody" (or nudge him into "retirement"), will try to get Sean Miller, Greg McDermott, Dusty May...in other words, a "bigger fish". Just being real. Indiana is a top 5-10 program and they're tired of losing. I doubt they even interview Moser. I would label May as the odds-on favorite if Indy opens up. You have guys like Jeff Goodman pushing that out publicly.
Creighton.
IF McDermott leaves.
Porter's alma mater.
Another instance where the financial side of things will be a big deterrent IMO. As great as McDermott has been at Creighton, he's making only $2M ish per year. To land Moser, they'd have to increase their salary pool by almost double, possibly, for a worse coach? Would they view him as the type of coach they should do that for? Why not just double McDermott's salary? Or they could go after Darian DeVries (Drake) who spent almost 2 decades at Creighton and would be much cheaper? Or Alan Huss (High Point) who spent 6 years as McDermott's assistant, has gotten High Point playing well after the Tubby/Tubby's son disaster, and is much, much cheaper than Moser? Use logic. While it's often impossible to guess what will happen during some coaching searches, my money would be on DeVries and/or Huss being ahead of Moser on a possible interview list.
Other potential openings...
Florida State - why would that make sense? I'll dismiss it and say it's not likely. Florida isn't Chicago.
Louisville - they'll swing much bigger
Xavier - listed because there are rumors of Miller possibly leaving. It could make sense but I think Xavier would move Adam Cohen, associate head coach, to full-time head coach. Cohen is being talked about as a future big-time head coach and there will be other programs coming after him this off-season. It would be the smart play by Xavier if Miller leaves.
Ohio State - similar to Indiana & Louisville. I'll mark this down as super duper unlikely. Sean Miller and Greg McDermott are two names already being floated out there.
Michigan - see Indiana, Louisville, and/or Ohio State.
Oregon - not close to Chicago and Oregon will swing for a big name. They should look into Medved, Rice, Sprinkle, or....a basketball version of Dan Lanning. A guy like Kim English or Amir Abdur-Rahim would do well there, IMO. Younger, energetic dudes that are passionate.
Washington - not close to Chicago.
TL;DR
I'm not seeing an opening, potential or current, that makes great sense. Financially + geographically. If Moser is adamant on leaving, it might not be a return to Chicago/midwest.
Who knows, this stuff becomes crazy and you oftentimes have to expect the unexpected but I think we'll see Moser stay. I truly do. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
Dependent upon the finish, I think it's more likely we'll see Moser get a raise, and more NIL money,
Future of Moser
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Great post!
AnotherSoonerInTX
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Yep. Even with the relative positions of their sports, men's basketball still has a bigger fan base.
Here's my observation after 50+ years of fandom (and I'm not that old):
Football is king. Period. Basketball has had two great runs in my lifetime (under Billy and Kelvin) and couldn't sniff football's popularity.
With our fan base, it's "national championship or bust". The football program is expected to contend for national championships. All other sports are held to the standards of the football program.
Men's basketball is a traditional Top 25 program with one arm tied behind its back. It's never received the full support of the athletic department or the fan base. Finishing in the Top 25 in the nation, middle of the pack in the Big 12, and an occasional tournament run doesn't move the needle. The last few years, we haven't even had that. Granted, the arrival of the Thunder has hurt the programs at both OU and OSU, especially now that they're good again. But, men's basketball doesn't generate the love of the OU fan base, and never fully has.
Softball, on the other hand, is everything we want our football program to be, and has been in the past. They win national championships and dominate opponents in the process. In addition, they have a likable coach that recruits likable players. It's resulted in a brand new facility and a rabid fan base. But, it's still softball. Basketball is still more popular.
So OU is a tough job. Someone can do well here, though.
StoopsBros
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It's plausible, I guess. I'm sure he's fine when it comes to savings, investments, etc. He's 'not a poor'.
But damn, you build a foundation at OU, have them trending up (even if fans disagree), could be in line to get another raise, and you throw that away because you're unhappy geographically and/or religiously? And you take a significant pay cut to do so? Seems too crazy to happen, IMO.
I do side with Porter on the support/arena issues. IMO, that's the heart of the real issue(s), not geography, the wife, and/or his religion. It's been a struggle and that struggle still continues. OU fans, and the athletic department, is/are way too lukewarm when it comes to basketball and that sucks. Even though football is king, and softball has captivated OU fans, you (not you but everyone) can absolutely support the basketball team(s) as well.
Would OU be, potentially, fine if Moser does leave? Sure but he's a much better coach than some fans want to suggest and he deserves more support from fans/athletic department/donors. In the same vein, it's hard to win basketball games at OU with the current support or lack thereof, the arena, etc....much harder than Baylor, Kansas, even Oklahoma State IMO. You have more odds stacked against you. Try recruiting a top portal target with offers from KU, Baylor, Texas, or other national powers. It's almost impossible. You have to take bigger chances...like Godwin as a PWO, Moore from GT, Soares from Oregon, or even McCollum from Siena. That's not to say none of those guys were wanted but yeah, it's just different at OU and it's different coaching basketball at OU vs football...yet, fans often expect football results.
I hope Moser stays put and I hope OU fans, and the athletic department, gives him the support he deserves/needs.
skyvue
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Who said it was bigger? I said it was bigger than Coach gave it credit for. And that "if" question is telling--if OU was a three-time defending national champion in men's basketball, it wouldn't even resemble the program it is. It would be nearing blue blood status and damned well should be selling out every game. No women's sport at OU (or most schools) is going have more fans than the men's equivalent. The men got a 75-year head start on them. But if you think there is a not a large and avid OU softball fan base, you are kidding yourself (or you haven't been paying attention--or both).
AnotherSoonerInTX
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Yep. I think this is true.
I don't think OU is anti-Catholic in the least. Joe C. is a committed Catholic. That was/is probably part of the connection between Porter and Joe C. and a reason Porter took the job. But Porter is comfortable with the Catholic school environment. I forgot if he went to a Catholic high school, but he played at Creighton, was an assistant at Saint Louis, was head coach at Loyola, and is well-versed in both Chicago and Catholic culture. He'd fit DePaul like a glove. Money is the issue. But, if he's willing to take a pay cut and if OU is willing to negotiate the buyout, it's doable.
But I think the commitment of the program is the issue for him. The arena, donors, and the fan base, specifically. For example, Baylor has built two arenas since Lloyd Noble was opened in 1975. No matter how it comes about (on or off-campus, university, city, or county-owned), the program needs a new arena (even if it's smaller). And the fan base needs to realize that it can be fans of more than one OU sport, not just football, or not just softball. And, you can be a fan of both OU and the Thunder.
College basketball is not what it once was. But it can still be successful at OU.
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I think OU fans will support a winner, but only to an extent. I’d like to say the potential is there to get to a high level of support, but we’ve been this way as long as I’ve followed OU basketball (98-99) so it’s hard for me to imagine something else.
The AD does an atrocious job marketing the team. You can’t rely on the newspaper or radio to talk up the team and tell people when the games are. They’ve done a better job this year w cheaper tickets and concessions sometimes. But they should be relentless in getting people in seats. It’s definitely not that.
The AD does an atrocious job marketing the team. You can’t rely on the newspaper or radio to talk up the team and tell people when the games are. They’ve done a better job this year w cheaper tickets and concessions sometimes. But they should be relentless in getting people in seats. It’s definitely not that.
skyvue
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You draw larger crowds by winning, yes, but especially by winning at home in big games, something Moser has seriously struggled to do. Losing yesterday would have been a disaster--not just because of it how it would have impacted our season, but because it would have been one more packed home game the Sooners lost under Moser. OU fans appear to be ready to support the team--there have been some solid to great crowds this season--but they too often go home disappointed. Thankfully, the team pulled it out yesterday, but did anyone leave that game fully satisfied? Not many, I suspect. It's a hated rival you've lost four of five to, you're a double digit favorite and you end up playing poorly for most of the game and eking out a win. Great that they pulled it out, truly, but it was far from a stellar showing from the Sooners, and that cannot be blamed on the crowd or the arena. Greater consistency from Moser's teams is an absolute must, if he sticks around.
steverocks35
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If he’s considering leaving and in contact with other schools in the middle of the season when he has a borderline top 25 team who is fighting to make the tournament and/or a higher seed then he needs to leave or get fired. It’s ridiculous.
Also, I didn’t get to watch the game because I was traveling but I listened to the radio broadcast and once again the team was not ready to play. How can they be so flat and terrible against (arguably) their biggest rival? This is why I say we need an OU guy or at least someone with ties to the area. You don’t know and appreciate Bedlam and other rivalry games unless you’ve been through them during previous eras.
Also, I didn’t get to watch the game because I was traveling but I listened to the radio broadcast and once again the team was not ready to play. How can they be so flat and terrible against (arguably) their biggest rival? This is why I say we need an OU guy or at least someone with ties to the area. You don’t know and appreciate Bedlam and other rivalry games unless you’ve been through them during previous eras.
AnotherSoonerInTX
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Agreed. He has a dreadful record against OSU and Texas. And a loss to a woeful OSU team last night would have been devastating.
NickZepp
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If McCollum and Oweh play really well this team is hard to beat by anyone. If they don't then it's gonna be a tough game to win. Most of the team, Moore, Soares, Darthard, even Northweather played some solid minutes. Uzan had a solid game too. Godwin barely played because of some terrible foul calls and then the technical foul on him early in the 2nd half. But most of the rest of the roster played well last night. Oweh and McCollum did not. You need your two best guards to show up on offense.
Correct. And what some people fail to realize is as much as everyone's goal is to make the tourney, many fans place a high premium on beating rivals during the regular season. At least from my perspective, he'd get a little more leash if he'd had the team ready to play at least SOME of the time against these rivals.
Like was said earlier OU fans across the board(not all) are front running. They love elite-ness and lose interest in anything less. You think anyone would give a ratsazz about softball if they weren't winning like they are? Right. You can market all you want, pray for arenas.... winning would cure alot. Heck, at this point, OU basketball doesn't even have to be "elite", whatever that is. Beat your rivals SOME(well, let's say at least half), defend your homecourt, be overall tough to beat, have some sort of identity.... Maybe have an above .500 conference record...at least every once in awhile? Let's get there and then we can talk about the next step. Conference record with Moser and the last part of Kruger has been... attrocious.
Crying about support while letting the Baylors, Texas Techs, K States, etc pass us as programs is my gripe. To borrow from Moser, you could have hit a golf ball in each of these arenas and not hit anyone, before they were winning. Sampson wasn't flashy in the beginning at OU but at least the program had an identity(defense and toughness), and most of the time won in Lloyd Noble even though they weren't that talented. He developed an identity and as a program and crawled before they walked.... and then ran. It's happened before here, and can happen again. The issue with Moser is everything is so inconsistent.. I acknowledge NIL and portal doesn't help, but everybody has to deal with it. Adjust!
steverocks35
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The team was not ready to play. That’s my biggest gripe. If Darthard (or was it Soares, can’t remember) doesn’t hit a last second three at the end of the first half we score under 30 points. We should have beat that terrible team by at least 20.
So everyone needs to stop crying about the refs and focus on how game after game we seem unready to play at the opening tip.
I like Coach Moser, he is a good coach. However, I just never have felt like he is a good fit at OU. I had the same feeling with Capel and Lincoln Riley in football. These rumors just help validate my concerns. I’m not worried about roster turnover if/sounds like when he leaves. Roster turnover each year has been Moser’s most consistent thing since he has been at OU.
steverocks35
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Agreed. It doesn’t seem like a good fit. He has no ties to the area. I think that’s crucial for a program like OU basketball.
soonervegas
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Way too many OU fans are football and front running softballs fans. (Which is just a cope mechanism for OU football falling short so much)
OU fans are gonna get worked by many SEC fans bases when it comes to overall program support.
The silver lining I see regarding the roster is that if Moser is going to leave it will be very very quickly after the last game they play. So maybe Joe C will have enough time to hire, hopefully the right, guy, and he can recruit some of the guys to stay. Also, maybe the players are getting paid enough that they are content to wait and see who the next coach is before dipping.
What do you mean by “good fit?” He’s recruited well and he’s been able to get overall good support by the fans. He seems to be well liked around the university. The only thing he hasn’t been been able to do is win some ball games.
Seymore Cox
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you can’t win at DePaul. Plus DePaul would be a huge step down. For him to want thatjob would be saying “I can’t cut it in the big leagues.” His personality doesn’t strike me as that type of guy.
CoachTalk
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steverocks35
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The team is maddeningly inconsistent. He has a terrible record against our rivals. He doesn’t seem to have the team ready to play half the time.
I’m sure he’s a good coach but something just seems off. Not a good fit in my opinion. It happens sometimes.
