For all the OU Hoops insiders, what percentage do you think Moser leaves? On ouinsider, the mods are reporting that something is off with moser within the basketball program lately, similar to Riley when he was leaving. I really hope he doesn’t leave.
Warning: this will be a lengthy post. I can feel it, lol. Apologies in advance.
Not an insider, thankfully. Personally, and
to each their own, I don't read OUI for basketball coverage and never will. Unless they hire someone I care to read, I guess.
Anyway, I apply logic, common sense, read signs, social media, etc. Always right? Lololol, no, of course not. Neither are insiders, lol, and OU sources are wrong
a lot.
In my opinion, right now, I'd label it more likely than not that Moser is OU's coach next year.
Why?
Money. Finding a match.
Are there rumors that Moser is wanting to leave OU? Yes. Rumors of his wife being unhappy? Yes.
Okay. Cool.
But let's look at some obvious stuff here....
Buyout: $6M
OU salary: roughly $3M per year with an ability to increase that #, surely.
Here's the hard part to guess right now...
How does OU finish out the season? They have 7 tough (regular season) games left (OK St being the most obvious winnable game left). Let's say OU finds a way to win 3 out of those 7. They would be 21-10 (9-9) heading into the B12 tourney. Let's just give them the 8th seed and have them play 9th seed Cincy. Let's say they win and then lose to Houston (#1 seed). I'm far too lazy to break it all down (each B12 team and predicting their finishes). Anyway, that puts OU at 22-11 and that likely gets them seeded in the NCAAT in the 4-8 range. Even if they lose in the first round of the B12 tourney, OU will be dancing. From there, who the hell knows but I'm guessing OU can, at least, win one game. We'll just see on their matchup, etc.
Point: is getting to the dance enough for Joe C to renegotiate with Moser especially with unhappiness/departure rumors? I say yes. It's not hard to imagine Joe C being able to offer $4M+...with the SEC cash, etc. Let's just say, hypothetically, OU offers Moser a new 3-4 year deal at $4.2M per year.
Or I guess, hopefully not, OU wins only one game during their last 7 and all hell breaks loose. They would be 19-12 and would need to have success in the B12 tourney. But I guess the question then becomes, would anyone want him? Lol, including OU. All bets are off if OU collapses.
Now let's look at some of the rumored programs out there currently and/or possible openings...as we head into a crazy coach search season:
DePaul.
Obviously, DePaul gets Moser back to the Windy City. But....
1.
Is Moser at the top of their list? Personally, I don't think he's target #1. Somewhat based on the below stuff.
2.
Does DePaul have the financial backing to A) settle with their last coach B) pay Moser's buyout C) pay him $3M+ per year + increase their assistant coaching salary pool D) fund NIL...etc?
DePaul paid their last coach, Tony Stubblefield, about $1.5M per year. Although we may never get told it, the thought is...they settled on a buyout in the range of $1.5-2.5M to fire him.
so....
DePaul is going to have to get super serious if they want Moser. They'll have to more than double their annual salary pool (for assistants too, I assume, because Armon Gates is from Chicago and is a must add if Moser went there), they'd have to find $6M to buy Moser out, on top of their commitment to Stubblefield's buyout, and commit more money to their program to achieve success. You could easily say they need to dedicate $12M+ just next year alone.
That's a lot of money. I don't see it happening. DePaul's AD (whole department) is asscheeks and seems borderline dysfunctional.
IMO, they'll make a cheaper hire, somewhat mediocre by public opinion, because they have no idea what they're doing and they don't/won't have the finances to get Moser. But you know, we'll see.
I kind of see it being Bobby Hurley but guessing what a terrible AD is going to do is super hard. Hurley would be bringing Nick Irvin with him. Nick is the brother of Mac (AAU coach still I think), Lance (former head coach at Chicago State), and Mike (Chicago area high school coach). The Irvins are (southside) Chicago legends. Mac Irvin Sr is the originator. He passed away back in 2011.
Hurley is already a good recruiter and IMO, would crush it at DePaul with the Irvins in tow. Hurley could pull in some NYC kids as well (big city to big city...much easier than getting them to go to Tempe). I don't know if they'd win at DePaul, who does, but on the surface I'd actually like the hire. Plus, Hurley (DePaul) vs Hurley (UCONN) would be worth the price of admission.
Saint Louis.
Fresh off a rumor I just read this morning, Chris Mack, former Xavier/Louisville head coach, is wanting to get back into coaching (that much is publicly known if you look at Twitter) and Saint Louis supposedly interests him.
And it's kind of similar to DePaul financially. They'd have to come up with a lot of money to get Moser.
Even if they negotiate Ford's buyout down, even to half of the rumored $10M, they'd also have to pay A) Moser's buyout B) more annually (Ford makes about $2.5M per).
I think the financial stuff will eliminate Moser because there are better, cheaper options out there like Mack. Assuming Ford is fired (he sucks) of course.
The A10 is a good conference but holy ****, it would be epically idiotic to leave OU for Saint Louis. Moser coached Loyola when they were in the Missouri Valley but Loyola is now in the A10...that would be going backwards. If you're that unhappy, seek counseling. Kidding, a little.
Indiana.
Definitely no offense to CoachTalk but it's not happening. Indiana, if they fire "Woody" (or nudge him into "retirement"), will try to get Sean Miller, Greg McDermott, Dusty May...in other words, a "bigger fish". Just being real. Indiana is a top 5-10 program and they're tired of losing. I doubt they even interview Moser. I would label May as the odds-on favorite if Indy opens up. You have guys like Jeff Goodman pushing that out publicly.
Creighton.
IF McDermott leaves.
Porter's alma mater.
Another instance where the financial side of things will be a big deterrent IMO. As great as McDermott has been at Creighton, he's making only $2M ish per year. To land Moser, they'd have to increase their salary pool by almost double, possibly, for a worse coach? Would they view him as the type of coach they should do that for? Why not just double McDermott's salary? Or they could go after Darian DeVries (Drake) who spent almost 2 decades at Creighton and would be much cheaper? Or Alan Huss (High Point) who spent 6 years as McDermott's assistant, has gotten High Point playing well after the Tubby/Tubby's son disaster, and is much, much cheaper than Moser? Use logic. While it's often impossible to guess what will happen during some coaching searches, my money would be on DeVries and/or Huss being ahead of Moser on a possible interview list.
Other potential openings...
Florida State - why would that make sense? I'll dismiss it and say it's not likely. Florida isn't Chicago.
Louisville - they'll swing much bigger
Xavier - listed because there are rumors of Miller possibly leaving. It could make sense but I think Xavier would move Adam Cohen, associate head coach, to full-time head coach. Cohen is being talked about as a future big-time head coach and there will be other programs coming after him this off-season. It would be the smart play by Xavier if Miller leaves.
Ohio State - similar to Indiana & Louisville. I'll mark this down as super duper unlikely. Sean Miller and Greg McDermott are two names already being floated out there.
Michigan - see Indiana, Louisville, and/or Ohio State.
Oregon - not close to Chicago and Oregon will swing for a big name. They should look into Medved, Rice, Sprinkle, or....a basketball version of Dan Lanning. A guy like Kim English or Amir Abdur-Rahim would do well there, IMO. Younger, energetic dudes that are passionate.
Washington - not close to Chicago.
TL;DR
I'm not seeing an opening, potential or current, that makes great sense. Financially + geographically. If Moser is adamant on leaving, it might not be a return to Chicago/midwest.
Who knows, this stuff becomes crazy and you oftentimes have to expect the unexpected but I think we'll see Moser stay. I truly do. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.
Dependent upon the finish, I think it's more likely we'll see Moser get a raise, and more NIL money, than it is for him to leave.
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