Michigan State ESPN Preview

jackson_supersooner

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Another good write up

The Michigan State Spartans employ a time-tested recipe to prep for success in the NCAA tournament. Tom Izzo prepares his team for March Madness by taking on brand-name, RPI-enhancing foes such as Duke, Kansas and Notre Dame before heading into the annual Big Ten meat grinder. By season's end, Izzo's bunch is toughened up and ready to make a deep foray in the win-or-go-home Big Dance. Will the formula work again for Coach Izzo in 2015?

ESPN Insider has your answers, as Joe Lunardi has enlisted a team of Bracketologists to go deep on each team. Additionally, Joey Brackets will let you know how far he feels each team can go.

TOURNEY PROFILE
Best wins: vs. Ohio State, at Iowa, at Indiana

Worst losses: vs. Texas Southern, at Nebraska

Conference finish: T-3rd, Big Ten

Polls and metrics: In addition to the Big Ten wars, Michigan State plays a rugged nonconference schedule, so their RPI (27) and BPI (19) are always healthy.

All-time tourney record: 59-27, two national titles

Coach's tourney record: Tom Izzo (42-16, six Final Four appearances, one national title)

Bracketology chart | BPI information

PERSONNEL
(Note: Player statistics are for the regular season only.)

STARTING LINEUP

F Gavin Schilling (5.5 PPG, 4.2 RPG)
F Branden Dawson (11.6 PPG, 9.3 RPG)
F Denzel Valentine (14.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG)
G Travis Trice (14.8 PPG, 5.4 APG)
G Lourawls Nairn (2.2 PPG, 2.6 APG)

Key bench players

G Bryn Forbes (9.0 PPG, 1.5 RPG)
F Matt Costello (7.4 PPG, 5.5 RPG)
F Marvin Clark Jr. (4.8 PPG, 2.1 RPG)

Biggest strength: In Izzo, Michigan State has one of the best sideline maestros in college hoops. He has an experienced rotation with two seniors (Dawson and Trice) and three juniors (Valentine, Forbes and Costello). Top-shelf coaching, plus balanced scoring and MSU's signature everyone-on-the-glass approach, will make them a tough out in this tournament.

Biggest weakness: Michigan State struggles to shoot from behind both lines. As a team, the Spartans have had difficulty accepting charity, making only 62.7 percent of their free throw tries. Trice and Forbes can shoot the ball from 3-point land, but the other Spartans' long-distance dialing is spotty at best.

Best player: Dawson. There has been only one Michigan State player during the Izzo era to average a double-double in a season (Draymond Green). Dawson, who seems like he's been in East Lansing, Michigan, since the Clinton administration, was nearly the second one -- averaging 11.6 points and a Big Ten-best 9.3 boards per game.

X factor: Forbes. The 6-foot-3 junior guard enters the game midway through the first half, replacing pass-first freshman point guard "Tum Tum" Nairn, and the Spartans become a different team. In that scenario, Trice becomes the point guard and Forbes (42.8 3-point percentage) takes over at the 2 -- giving the shooting-starved Spartans two reliable 3-point shooters.

SCOUTING REPORT
Offensive approach: Izzo's offense features three starters who average in double figures (Trice, Valentine and Dawson) and one sub who is close to doing so (Forbes). If they miss their first shooting try, everyone pounds the glass for the Spartans.

Defensive approach: The Spartans' offseason work in the weight room allows them to implement the two annual tenets of Izzo Ball: intense man-to-man D and relentless rebounding. The 2015 Spartans are stout defenders (39.7 field goal percentage allowed) and great glass-eaters (plus-7.0 per game).

How they beat you: The names change, but the recipe for success remains the same: excellent coaching, balanced scoring, relentless rebounding and killer D -- especially against the 3-ball (.31.1 3-point percentage allowed).

How you beat them: Get some of the key MSU starters into foul difficulty and your odds of beating the Spartans improve because Izzo's bench is thinner than usual. Costello is the only quality big off the pine, and Forbes is the team's lone reliable perimeter sub.

WHAT THE NUMBERS SAY
(Note: All statistics in this section are courtesy of kenpom.com and are accurate through games of March 8.)

NATIONAL RANKS

Offensive efficiency, 16th (113.4)
Defensive efficiency, 53rd (95.8)
3-point percentage, 26th (39.0)
3-point percentage D, 38th (31.1)
Free throw rate, 297th (32.2)
Free throw rate D, 204th (38.1)
TO percentage, 91st (18.0)
TO percentage D, 295th (17.0)

Good stat: 113.4 offensive efficiency rating
The Spartans are an efficient offensive team because the players know their roles and stick to them. Trice and Forbes own the best 3-point strokes, so they hoist most of the team's 3s. Valentine and Dawson are adept from 15 feet in, so that's where they operate.

Bad stat: 17.0 TO percentage defense
The Spartans' rotation usually sports some guards who are more adept at stealing than Paris pickpockets, but not this season. Accordingly, they play more positional man-to-man defense and then pound the glass to keep you to one shot and done at the offensive end.
 
Their defensive efficiency is really poor! We can capitalize on that big time. Also they don't get to the free throw line much and they send their opponents to the FT line a lot. Their TO rate is bad. Really need to play good D and score in transition!
 
I feel like their guards aren't nearly as good as ours. But their post players are the same or better. PG looks like a real weakness. Probably what causes so many TOs.
 
We are better than Michigan State, but they are playing better right now. If we play like we did late in the regular season, we will be in Indy. If we play like we have been, we are likely done on Friday.
 
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