Oklahoma in Conference (TE4T numbers edition)

[TEvans4Three]

So, I am going to nerd out on you all. I didn't want to bog down @WichitaSooner 's thread with my numbers crap. So, here is a new post for it.

I will share the season breakdown and the IN CONFERENCE breakdown of how my rating system sees us this year...(spoiler alert, it is bad)


Here are the full season numbers:



Here are the IN CONFERENCE ONLY numbers:


Notes:
-Javian McCollum and John Hugley IV do not start at their current schools. So off the bench numbers and Javian looks good in conference.
-Kaden Cooper has attempted 0 FTs in conference play, weird for an athletic player. (not aggressive enough)
-Kevin Overton has started 0 games in conference play. (Harsh news for our NIL)

Here is a look at the +/- of my scoring scale from Overall to Conference play:


Yes, I know the Northweather haters are having their day, he has been rather abysmal.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Will also add the offensive and defensive ratings given by sports-reference.com in overall play and in conference play:

 

[WichitaSooner]

Man are those defensive numbers bad. Scary bad.

 

[hoopsaustin]

How do you generate your nil values bc some of those are funny

 

[SoonerBounce13]

I mean we have only played 3 conference games so you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Also, we are playing in the SEC vs some of the other players playing in lesser conferences...so how do your numbers account for that?

 

[TEvans4Three]

Early on I had a calculation that was basically values of players via rumors and trying to calculate values based on that.

It is nowhere near perfect at all, but it lined up pretty decent during the portal.

 

[TEvans4Three]

I mean we have only played 3 conference games so you have to take those numbers with a grain of salt.
Also, we are playing in the SEC vs some of the other players playing in lesser conferences...so how do your numbers account for that?

Values are weighted based on KP team performance. That identifier then reduces the overall final value based on the teams performance... Usually relates to lower level teams.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Tevans, thanks for posting. Question: is there a way to find blocked shot percentage, both offensively and defensively? That feels like a stat where we would be among the worst in the country from a differential standpoint. Even back in the 320+ NET portion of the schedule, it was shocking how often we got our stuff thrown back at us, and how infrequently we blocked shots. Athleticism!!!

 

[TEvans4Three]

Tevans, thanks for posting. Question: is there a way to find blocked shot percentage, both offensively and defensively? That feels like a stat where we would be among the worst in the country from a differential standpoint. Even back in the 320+ NET portion of the schedule, it was shocking how often we got our stuff thrown back at us, and how infrequently we blocked shots. Athleticism!!!

Per KP on the season:

 

[BoulderSooner]

thankyou @TEvans4Three

 

[TEvans4Three]

From @cbertus6 last year, getting me onto cbbanalytics.com, here are some of their numbers on OU in conference play...

Team Four Factors:


Aside from eFG%, we are bottom of the league in about every other category. Defense, especially...

Shooting Stats:


We are actually efficient for the floor, shoot well, FTA/G being the big misnomer here. I will add that stats show we are middle of the SEC in points in the paint and higher in fast break points...so the low-rate FT per game tends to lean towards referee favoritism a bit there. That should be technical foul on a coach call worthy, IMO.

Why did I want Godwin coming off the bench and a proper 5? Well...



FT-Rate...why is it so low?


This chart shows that we should be attempting WAY more than 14 FTs per game. Top in fast break points and Top-7 in points in the paint...

O vs D Rating:


Defense...there you have it, worst in the SEC as of now.

 

[steverocks35]

Thanks for the breakdown! This shows very well that our undersized guards and our total lack of inside presence and rim protection is killing us. It's probably also a big factor in why we don't get a lot of foul calls.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Thanks for the breakdown! This shows very well that our undersized guards and our total lack of inside presence and rim protection is killing us. It's probably also a big factor in why we don't get a lot of foul calls.

My ONLY pushback here is Fears. I think Fears is going to have to adjust to the physicality of SEC play for us to have success and hopefully get more calls, but he is attacking the paint. Refs are just holding their whistles. He is not undersized, just young and inexperienced.

Now, to totally give props to your point, look at the DRtg from sports-reference of our guards in conference play:

Fears - 124.8
Miles - 127.9
Elvis - 134.9
Goodine - 125.7
Taylor Jr. - 127.4

Absolutely atrocious. I think ratings in the 105 and below are considered solid defenders. The score maxes out at 138.2. (higher being worse)

We all know my take on our center position, so another agreement there.

 

[steverocks35]

My ONLY pushback here is Fears. I think Fears is going to have to adjust to the physicality of SEC play for us to have success and hopefully get more calls, but he is attacking the paint. Refs are just holding their whistles. He is not undersized, just young and inexperienced.

Now, to totally give props to your point, look at the DRtg from sports-reference of our guards in conference play:

Fears - 124.8
Miles - 127.9
Elvis - 134.9
Goodine - 125.7
Taylor Jr. - 127.4

Absolutely atrocious. I think ratings in the 105 and below are considered solid defenders. The score maxes out at 138.2. (higher being worse)

We all know my take on our center position, so another agreement there.

How mush does Fears weigh? I bet it's not much more than a buck oh five. I think he gets pushed around and doesn't go hard to the cup at times against bigs like Bama or A&M have.

Edited to add: I think we agree that he's going to have to adjust to the physicality.

 

[steverocks35]

How mush does Fears weigh? I bet it's not much more than a buck oh five. I think he gets pushed around and doesn't go hard to the cup at times against bigs like Bama or A&M have.

Edited to add: I think we agree that he's going to have to adjust to the physicality.

Not to mention all the careless turnovers which also don't help...

 

[WichitaSooner]

How mush does Fears weigh? I bet it's not much more than a buck oh five. I think he gets pushed around and doesn't go hard to the cup at times against bigs like Bama or A&M have.

Edited to add: I think we agree that he's going to have to adjust to the physicality.

Agree. One of those draft boards that I posted the other day mentioned that while he finishes well in transition, he does not finish well at the rim in the half court. Going back to our last possession against A&M, he passed way too quickly when he was pressured rather than trying to force the action and either score or draw a foul. I can't remember which game it was the other day, maybe Iowa State, where, in a similar situation, a more experienced, stronger guard was met with resistance but kept attacking and drew a foul.

I love Fears and will be mad if Moser continues to bench him in favor of Goodine and other, less talented players. But contrary to what some here think, he isn't a top 5 pick. He is likely a late lotto pick, best case, and his strength is one issue right now.

Also -- how can Taylor be so bad defensively?? He has been so streaky this season, and he is definitely playing poorly right now. He has size our other guards don't. That should at least show up on D.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Agree. One of those draft boards that I posted the other day mentioned that while he finishes well in transition, he does not finish well at the rim in the half court. Going back to our last possession against A&M, he passed way too quickly when he was pressured rather than trying to force the action and either score or draw a foul. I can't remember which game it was the other day, maybe Iowa State, where, in a similar situation, a more experienced, stronger guard was met with resistance but kept attacking and drew a foul.

I love Fears and will be mad if Moser continues to bench him in favor of Goodine and other, less talented players. But contrary to what some here think, he isn't a top 5 pick. He is likely a late lotto pick, best case, and his strength is one issue right now.

Also -- how can Taylor be so bad defensively?? He has been so streaky this season, and he is definitely playing poorly right now. He has size our other guards don't. That should at least show up on D.

when you get hit on drives over and over with no call .. it makes you a little hesitant to drive again ..

 

[WichitaSooner]

when you get hit on drives over and over with no call .. it makes you a little hesitant to drive again ..

Always comes back to complaining about the refs.

He shoots 6 FTs a game. That is a ton in college basketball. By comparison, Arky's stud frosh PG attempts 3.6 per game. Auburn's freshman guard attempts 1.6 per game. Refs must HATE those teams.

 

[snydrosooner]

Always comes back to complaining about the refs.

He shoots 6 FTs a game. That is a ton in college basketball. By comparison, Arky's stud frosh PG attempts 3.6 per game. Auburn's freshman guard attempts 1.6 per game. Refs must HATE those teams.

Many possessions against Georgia when going around screens Georgia was grabbing fears arm and slowing him down. This caused him not to be able to beat of side help to the basket. This is why he tried to elbow off. Fears needs to play through, but technically the grabbing on the screen is a foul.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Many possessions against Georgia when going around screens Georgia was grabbing fears arm and slowing him down. This caused him not to be able to beat of side help to the basket. This is why he tried to elbow off. Fears needs to play through, but technically the grabbing on the screen is a foul.

Did what happened at Georgia affect the decision he made three days earlier against the Aggies?

I just despise complaining about officiating. Every single team thinks they get screwed. Isn't it funny that when the FT disparity favors us, no one bothers to mention it, let alone suggest that our opponent got hosed?