OT: Football Talk

I think OU will be competitive, but lack of offense will doom them. Cooking out with family and drinking beer.
 
heading down at 730am tomorrow ... will be 29th out of the last 30 years (uncle sam had me out of the country for 1 long ago) ..


OU's D will keep in close ... if OU takes care of the ball and forces 2 turnovers I think they have a great shot to win ..
 
I love going to the game. I go every 4-5 years. Not going this year, just doesn't fit the schedule (only grandbaby in town). I don't have a good feel for the game this year. Glad to see Tatum and Dasan back. But, I was really hoping Burks was going to get to play and it doesn't look like he is. Should be a fun game win or lose, just more fun if we win. Can't know until we see the game, but I don't think Texas talent is much different than what we saw in the Tennessee or Auburn games. Going to be a slugfest. Always is.
 
Logic says it could be a blowout. Texas is better than Tennessee IMO, and miles better than Auburn. The Auburn game was a bit concerning because their offense (which isn't close to being one of the best in the league) really moved the ball against us. We need our defense to be great, not just good, given how bad our offense is, and I just don't know if we are there yet.

All that said, this is a game where weird things usually happen. We likely need to force multiple turnovers, and may even need a non-offensive TD (or a turnover that sets us up deep in their territory). Kind of the way that KSU wins games in their best years. One thing we can't afford to do is fall behind by a couple TDs. Even though this game usually is full of massive momentum swings, I just don't see our offense being able to overcome a big deficit.
 
WichitaSooner said:
Logic says it could be a blowout. Texas is better than Tennessee IMO, and miles better than Auburn. The Auburn game was a bit concerning because their offense (which isn't close to being one of the best in the league) really moved the ball against us. We need our defense to be great, not just good, given how bad our offense is, and I just don't know if we are there yet.

All that said, this is a game where weird things usually happen. We likely need to force multiple turnovers, and may even need a non-offensive TD (or a turnover that sets us up deep in their territory). Kind of the way that KSU wins games in their best years. One thing we can't afford to do is fall behind by a couple TDs. Even though this game usually is full of massive momentum swings, I just don't see our offense being able to overcome a big deficit.
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absolutely can’t get down big early.
 
WichitaSooner said:
Logic says it could be a blowout. Texas is better than Tennessee IMO, and miles better than Auburn. The Auburn game was a bit concerning because their offense (which isn't close to being one of the best in the league) really moved the ball against us. We need our defense to be great, not just good, given how bad our offense is, and I just don't know if we are there yet.

All that said, this is a game where weird things usually happen. We likely need to force multiple turnovers, and may even need a non-offensive TD (or a turnover that sets us up deep in their territory). Kind of the way that KSU wins games in their best years. One thing we can't afford to do is fall behind by a couple TDs. Even though this game usually is full of massive momentum swings, I just don't see our offense being able to overcome a big deficit.
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Statistically Auburn is a decent (explosive) offense, but they turn it over way too freaking much. Against OU they had 1. I want to say they were top-10 in explosive play something or other. (need to find the data for it)

I think Texas has also had the luxury of playing the ESPN FPI 102nd ranked SOS.

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Arch has shown to struggle with pressure. I think if he plays, OU gets some turnovers, it will be close. You just have to have some (ANY) sort of offense or it could get ugly.
 
TEvans4Three said:
Statistically Auburn is a decent (explosive) offense, but they turn it over way too freaking much. Against OU they had 1. I want to say they were top-10 in explosive play something or other. (need to find the data for it)

I think Texas has also had the luxury of playing the ESPN FPI 102nd ranked SOS.

View attachment 2082

Arch has shown to struggle with pressure. I think if he plays, OU gets some turnovers, it will be close. You just have to have some (ANY) sort of offense or it could get ugly.
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I think Ewers will play the entire game unless he gets reinjured. Like most QBs, he can also struggle if pressured. I think that might be the key -- can our defensive line heat him up consistently.

I saw an article yesterday that discussed a stat that tends to strongly correlate to winning and losing, but it is one that is almost never mentioned in the media. It is the difference between a team's average yards per play offensively and average yards per play allowed defensively. Needless to say, we are way down the rankings, largely due to how anemic the offense is. Looking ahead to the remainder of the season, it just highlights how important it is that the offense improves.
 
Auburn is much better offensively than they are given Credit for
 
I think our defense will do as much as they can, and will probably do well for about 3 quarters, but unless our offense steps up massively I feel like they'll run out of steam and it'll get nasty late in the game. As we know, Texas isn't against running up the score on us to make it look nasty. I really hope we pull off a miracle, but this is probably UT's best hopes for a natty in a while. Wouldn't it be nice if we spoiled it for them?!
 
Our top 5 WR's are out. I've never seen anything like this. Uterus is extremely gettable too but you need to put up points.
 
WichitaSooner said:
I’ve never sung his praises. I said he wasn’t a particularly good coach. I just think Brent is even worse. And the “gutted” comment is laughable. He left Brent an NFL player at RB, WR, TE/HB, and three NFL offensive linemen. Compare that to the current roster that Brent has had three years to assemble. How many pros are on our current offense? And even defensively, the two guys who came into the season with the most hype are guys who Brent inherited.
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You didn't sing his praises in this thread, but you have in years past, always mentioning how rough it was to lose a coach like Riley and now be stuck with Venables. You flip-flopped now that Riley is 5-7 over his last 12 games, but it doesn't change your previous takes.

It's hilarious that you are pointing to Eric Gray, Marvin Mims, and Brayden Willis as evidence that the team wasn't gutted. You're making my point for me. The team Lincoln Riley inherited had Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray, Rodney Anderson, Trey Sermon, Mark Andrews, Ceedee Lamb, and Hollywood Brown. Are you really going to pretend not to see the difference?

Eric Gray averaged 2.8 ypc in conference play the previous year. Say what you want about Lebby, but he absolutely saved that dude's career.
Brayden Willis had 177 yards the year prior and more than doubled his 4 years of output prior.

Attempting to credit Riley for Bowman and Stutsman is also laughable. They were two talented youngsters on the verge of washing out the way most did under the Riley/Grinch era. Latrell McCutchin went with him...guess how his career went. Stutsman and Bowman would have met the same demise had they followed him to USC. Even if they had succeeded under him, they would have gone pro. Mock culture all you want, but Stutsman and Bowman would be in the NFL if Venables wasn't our coach.
 
WichitaSooner said:
Fair question on the two defensive guys. No denying that Brent is a good defensive coach. But there are lots of good/great coordinators who don't make good head coaches. Given how badly our offensive has cratered, and Brent's game management issues, our defense would have to become historically great for us to have a chance to make any real headway.
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Historically great? Kinda like Clemson's was when they won two national titles? Or Oklahoma's in the early 2000s?
 
BCSooners said:
How's it too early? Lebby was bad & Littrell is worse. You just said OC was filled from within and it was a mistake. Finley is also bad.
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Lebby was the hottest commodity as OC in the country, and he just so happened to have OU ties. I don't like hiring guys just because they have OU ties, but when they have the resume, I'm all about it We were top 25 in points per game both years including #3 in his final year, and he went on to land an SEC HC gig. Lebby really frustrated me at times, but it's kinda hard to pretend he was truly bad based on the previous sentence. I don't believe we truly had a top 3 offense last year, but we definitely had a top 25 offense overall during his tenure. Based on the way our defense has played thus far, if we had a top 25 offense this year, we'd be a lock for the playoffs and potentially even in contention to win the SEC. The former KU OC that Wichita is clamoring for above isn't even in the top 25 this year. Granted, he's obsessed with KU, so that's immediately where his brain always goes to.

In our two losses, our defense made crucial stops late that should have clinched the game had the offense done it's job on the final possessions, so I wasn't sad to see Lebby go. If the defense had done it's job earlier in the game, though, it wouldn't have ever come down to that. The offense was absolutely not the problem during Venables' first two seasons (outside of the 1.5 games QB1 was down). It was our defensive shortcomings, which were all too familiar over the past 15 years. If our defense continues to play like it has thus far, the turnaround in 2.5 years is nothing short of heroic. It's not easy convincing star defensive players to come play for a program that hasn't had an elite defense in their lifetime. It will be much easier moving forward.

Thus far, the Littrell hire seems like a disaster. It's not definitive by any means at this point, though. It's kinda hard to put up big numbers with a freshman QB, a bad OL, and your top 5 WRs all out. I was all for the Littrell hire at the time, especially given the continuity and keeping Arnold/Hawkins in the fold (but hated the JJF promotion). I still think that was important, though perhaps I had my excitement for Arnold and Hawkins flipped. I'm leaning strongly toward replacing Littrell at the end of the season, but he was dealt a really, really bad hand. I want to see what he can do with Hawkins and a few healthy WRs (Burks at least). Prioritizing Gabriel over Arnold seems to have been a massive mistake, but it's one we all favored.
 
WichitaSooner said:
The Auburn game was a bit concerning because their offense (which isn't close to being one of the best in the league) really moved the ball against us.
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Our defense didn't look amazing against them, but neither did Georgia's. Outside of the first 18 minutes where Alabama shredded them, Georgia's defense has appeared to be in a short conversation of best defenses in the country (again). I screamed at the TV a lot against Auburn, but our defense gave up 21 points. They scored a TD, so it's a net -14. UGA's defense was a net -13 the following week. They have a great running attack and Hunter ran for 7.0 YPC against them, while Thorne played TO free ball.
 
MercedeSooner said:
Our top 5 WR's are out. I've never seen anything like this. Uterus is extremely gettable too but you need to put up points.
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These are roughly my thoughts. Texas is the better team, but if we had our WRs, this is a very winnable game. Even a healthy Burks would make a huge difference. Our defense has been great, but Texas will make big plays. We have to be able to answer on offense, which is really tough when you're having to pretend Bauer Sharpe is Travis Kelce. I'd argue Tatum might be our best RB as well. I'd really hoped we would get healthy over the bye, but that doesn't seem to have been the case.
 
Eielson said:
These are roughly my thoughts. Texas is the better team, but if we had our WRs, this is a very winnable game. Even a healthy Burks would make a huge difference. Our defense has been great, but Texas will make big plays. We have to be able to answer on offense, which is really tough when you're having to pretend Bauer Sharpe is Travis Kelce. I'd argue Tatum might be our best RB as well. I'd really hoped we would get healthy over the bye, but that doesn't seem to have been the case.
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We’ll find out over the next 7 games. I think we are still too prone to giving up the big play to be considered great. We have been so bad for so long that people see a good defense and think they’re seeing an elite unit.
 
WichitaSooner said:
We’ll find out over the next 7 games. I think we are still too prone to giving up the big play to be considered great. We have been so bad for so long that people see a good defense and think they’re seeing an elite unit.
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I've definitely made sure to say "thus far" multiple times in this thread. I also believe I said the word great, rather than elite. I'm sure we'll have some bad games on defense, and we're still too thin in a few areas, so key injuries could really hurt us (which we've already had with Dolby). Having said that, I still suspect this will be our best defense in the past 15 years. I'd be shocked if it wasn't in the top 2-3. It's an uphill battle to undo a reputation that has been built over the course of HS recruits' entire lives.

If this defense ends up in the 20-30 range, which is certainly not elite, I'm still incredibly encouraged. We'll lose key guys like Stutsman and Bowman, but I don't see this defense dropping off. Venables' LB development is the least questionable thing since he took over, and I feel great about Bowen and RSJ at safety. The DL should be drastically improved over the next 1-2 years as guys like Stone, Okoye, and Smith join fellow freshman Jaden Jackson, who has looked like our best DL at times.
 
Eielson said:
I've definitely made sure to say "thus far" multiple times in this thread. I also believe I said the word great, rather than elite. I'm sure we'll have some bad games on defense, and we're still too thin in a few areas, so key injuries could really hurt us (which we've already had with Dolby). Having said that, I still suspect this will be our best defense in the past 15 years. I'd be shocked if it wasn't in the top 2-3. It's an uphill battle to undo a reputation that has been built over the course of HS recruits' entire lives.

If this defense ends up in the 20-30 range, which is certainly not elite, I'm still incredibly encouraged. We'll lose key guys like Stutsman and Bowman, but I don't see this defense dropping off. Venables' LB development is the least questionable thing since he took over, and I feel great about Bowen and RSJ at safety. The DL should be drastically improved over the next 1-2 years as guys like Stone, Okoye, and Smith join fellow freshman Jaden Jackson, who has looked like our best DL at times.
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I don’t disagree with you on most these points. But I do worry that if we don’t turn things around offensively and become a team that is realistically in contention for playoff berths, recruits may shy away from us. If we end up something like 7-5 this season, that will be two of three years that we have been a nonfactor nationally. We play the same conference schedule next season, and I don’t see us closing the gap on the teams at the very top of the league. Too many seasons like that will make it a lot tougher to convince players to come to Norman.
 
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