Selection Show - OU an 8 seed

I agree with you. I try not to get too high or too low based on a couple of years of NCAA Tourney results. I'd prefer to step back after 5, 7, or 10 years and look at it as a whole.

It's not like the OU program is used to winning a bunch of games in the Dance anyways. Starting with Dave Bliss in the 70's, we're 37-27. Take out the 3 Final Four runs, and we're 24-24. Dead even at .500.

My goal over a 10 year period for the Dance would be something like:
- Make it 9 times.
- Get seeded 6th or better 6-7 times.
- Get seeded 7th to 10th 2-3 times.
- Get knocked out of the first round no more than 2-3 times.
- Make it to the second round at least 5-6 times.
- Make 2 Sweet 16's or better.

That is off the top of my head, but I'd be content with something like that. You put a consistent program like that out there and you are going to luck your way into some Elite 8's and FF's.

I don't expect to realistically "compete" for NC's, b/c if we get a coach that is that good, he'll probably leave for a job at a basketball school. Our best hope at winning a NC is to get a coach in here that is consistent, and when things come together, we can make a run with a top 5 team (Kelvin with Hollis, Capel with Griffin, Kruger with Buddy).

I have similar expectations.

-Make the tourney at least 75% to 80%
-6 seed or better at least 50%
-4 seed or better at least 25%

Intangibles:

-Be playing our best ball in March/improve throughout the year
-Have an identity that fits our personnel
-Rebounding, defense, effort, smart bball
 
I have similar expectations.

-Make the tourney at least 75% to 80%
-6 seed or better at least 50%
-4 seed or better at least 25%

Intangibles:

-Be playing our best ball in March/improve throughout the year
-Have an identity that fits our personnel
-Rebounding, defense, effort, smart bball

if you make the tourney 75% at OU you won't be the HC for very long ..
 
I don't think he's in the minority. It really depends on how the season played out. Take the 1995 season for example. Kelvin won National Coach of the Year, we exceeded all expectations, realized Donnie Duncan nailed the hire, won every home game including a memorable one against Kansas (Abercrombie for three...YES!)...but put together an absolutely embarrassing performance as a #4 seed against #13 Manhattan. If this year's OU team beats Missouri and gets clobbered by Gonzaga, I wouldn't say this was a more successful season than 1995...and doubt I would be in the minority.


Oh, yes, Manhattan. There was that painful loss and then there is the ongoing pain of listening to Vitale Jr on ESPN.


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That’s fair. Most fans only remember getting humiliated by a joke of a team on the big stage though. The difference between that team’s regular season and an 8-9 seeded team is like 1-2 additional regular season wins. I’d rather have 1 ncaa win than 1-2 regular season wins personally.

It's certainly subjective. The memories of beating Kansas and the fans storming the court (happens rarely) combined with the re-birth of OU hoops is certainly worth winning an 8/9 game for many. But I understand your viewpoint as well.
 
if you make the tourney 75% at OU you won't be the HC for very long ..

Disagree. Assuming he met my other criteria as well.

Imagine a coach being here 12 years with these ncaa seedings:

9 bids out of 12 years

Seeds (from best to worst):

2
3
4
5
5
6
8
10
11

You think this coach gets fired? That's 75% in the dance, 50% 6 seed or better, 25% 4 seed or better
 
the #1 goal for just about every team is to make the tourney

Man i know you're going to die on this hill and it's not a totally terrible hill but it's still pretty weak to brag about only making the 68 team tournament... IMO its about actually being a threat to make runs in them and not get a participation ribbon
 
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Man i know you're going to die on this hill and it's not a totally terrible hill but it's still pretty weak to brag about only making the 68 team tournament... IMO its about actually being a threat to make runs in them and not get a participation ribbon

But this is not what most posters that are arguing about wanting to be competitive are saying. Multiple posters have now come back and said as long as we are competing for a conference championship and a conference tournament championship they honestly don’t care what the tournament results are.

That is going to be spun into well if we have a competitive team in the conference we should get a higher seed which should mean we have a better chance in the tournament.

Multiple posters have pointed out the history of being upset as the higher seed but posters have flat said they don’t care about that as long The number is shiny looking on the bracket.

My point to that is who cares if it is an eight or a nine seed if you win the first game and lose to the one seed in the second round if you were arguing that it only matters that you make the tournament as a high seed which is what a couple posters are saying.

It has been pointed out that Oklahoma lost to a 13 seed they lost to an 11 seed they lost to other seeds way worse than what they had and posters basically have said that doesn’t matter because they competed for a conference championship or a conference tournament championship.

I think one poster even said if they make a tournament run that just puts the gravy on top to him not that he cares about tournament runs because it’s a crapshoot. This is the type of thinking that I don’t understand that people are getting up in arms about if Oklahoma is a seven or an eight seed if they claim they don’t care about the tournament runs.

Looking at this year‘s conference finish and the number seven seed people were claiming that this team isn’t competitive because of the final conference record. However if you actually look at those games other posters have pointed out that the six teams that finished ahead of Oklahoma we’re all in the top 25 are all a six seed or higher in the tournament and Oklahoma‘s worst loss to one of those teams without looking it up was 10 points or less and was a competitive game pretty much every time but that doesn’t matter to most people on here because they didn’t get the W which is understandable.

In my opinion what people are claiming though which is the complete unknown is if they change coaches people are acting like it immediately changes those losses into wins.

I get wanting to recruit better but again Oklahoma really hasn’t recruited that poorly except in the post I one hundred percent agree it would be nice to have a guy that doesn’t seem like a complete project for three years just to be somewhat formidable for one season.

However, when you then claim that bringing in A junior college player listed at 6 foot eight and 210 pounds is going to bang in this league and change your post game around I find personally find that laughable.

If you are bringing in a 6’9 245 pound banger that has some skill so be it but those guys are a dime a dozen that everybody is looking for. Oklahoma had some luck last year on the transfer market and hopefully they can do it again with one if not two post players.

Personally I don’t think overall the results of this team are that far off from what people are wanting but again I also believe that Kruger is getting negatively recruited against due to his age which is only going to get worse each season. The problem is you don’t tell a guy that has had the results that he has had that he hast to get out. Everybody knows the end is probably near but it’s most likely his decision of when that is.
 
Personally I don’t think overall the results of this team are that far off from what people are wanting.....

In some ways you are right.

But you are also wrong in the following ways, b/c I do not want any of this crap:

- Finished 7th or worse in the Big 12 in 4 of the last 5 seasons.
- Have only won 20 games once in the last 5 seasons, and that was exactly 20 wins.
- We're 1-4 in the Big 12 Tournament the last 5 seasons.
- We're 38-51 in Big 12 play over the last 5 seasons.
- We're 25-28 in Big 12 play over the last 3 seasons.

That is the more factual, actual results side of things.

Then there is the program. How it's run. How we recruit. How we do with our top targets. In the last 4 classes (2018-2021), we've signed TWO 4* kids. I know we've had some solid transfers, but if you are constantly reworking your roster every year, with the level of talent we're currently landing, we're never going to accomplish what most of us hope to accomplish. The team appears to have no vision. Kruger likes big guards, then we go and sign Harmon and Gibson. His desire to constantly bring in athletic big men with no skills over finding some kids that can actually play the game, I'll never understand.

And at this point, I don't see the upside. Kruger is likely in his last couple of years. Nobody on the staff excites me as a recruiter or potential successor. We aren't in on a bunch of talented kids.

So no, we're really not all that close to what I want out of the OU basketball program and Lon.

EDIT: I meant to add.....my goal for recruiting isn't a bunch of 4* and 5* kids. But we should be able to get to a level where at a minimum, we're bringing in about half a roster worth of 4* kids. TT is doing it. Baylor is doing it. WVU and UT are doing it. OU has never recruited lights out, and I'm fine with that. But recruiting has fallen off, while for other schools it has picked up. This recruiting info comes from 247. Not sure if it's their rating or the cumulative rating.
 
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It's certainly subjective. The memories of beating Kansas and the fans storming the court (happens rarely) combined with the re-birth of OU hoops is certainly worth winning an 8/9 game for many. But I understand your viewpoint as well.

:chestram2:
 
But this is not what most posters that are arguing about wanting to be competitive are saying. Multiple posters have now come back and said as long as we are competing for a conference championship and a conference tournament championship they honestly don’t care what the tournament results are.

That is going to be spun into well if we have a competitive team in the conference we should get a higher seed which should mean we have a better chance in the tournament.

Multiple posters have pointed out the history of being upset as the higher seed but posters have flat said they don’t care about that as long The number is shiny looking on the bracket.

My point to that is who cares if it is an eight or a nine seed if you win the first game and lose to the one seed in the second round if you were arguing that it only matters that you make the tournament as a high seed which is what a couple posters are saying.

It has been pointed out that Oklahoma lost to a 13 seed they lost to an 11 seed they lost to other seeds way worse than what they had and posters basically have said that doesn’t matter because they competed for a conference championship or a conference tournament championship.

I think one poster even said if they make a tournament run that just puts the gravy on top to him not that he cares about tournament runs because it’s a crapshoot. This is the type of thinking that I don’t understand that people are getting up in arms about if Oklahoma is a seven or an eight seed if they claim they don’t care about the tournament runs.

Looking at this year‘s conference finish and the number seven seed people were claiming that this team isn’t competitive because of the final conference record. However if you actually look at those games other posters have pointed out that the six teams that finished ahead of Oklahoma we’re all in the top 25 are all a six seed or higher in the tournament and Oklahoma‘s worst loss to one of those teams without looking it up was 10 points or less and was a competitive game pretty much every time but that doesn’t matter to most people on here because they didn’t get the W which is understandable.

In my opinion what people are claiming though which is the complete unknown is if they change coaches people are acting like it immediately changes those losses into wins.

I get wanting to recruit better but again Oklahoma really hasn’t recruited that poorly except in the post I one hundred percent agree it would be nice to have a guy that doesn’t seem like a complete project for three years just to be somewhat formidable for one season.

However, when you then claim that bringing in A junior college player listed at 6 foot eight and 210 pounds is going to bang in this league and change your post game around I find personally find that laughable.

If you are bringing in a 6’9 245 pound banger that has some skill so be it but those guys are a dime a dozen that everybody is looking for. Oklahoma had some luck last year on the transfer market and hopefully they can do it again with one if not two post players.

Personally I don’t think overall the results of this team are that far off from what people are wanting but again I also believe that Kruger is getting negatively recruited against due to his age which is only going to get worse each season. The problem is you don’t tell a guy that has had the results that he has had that he hast to get out. Everybody knows the end is probably near but it’s most likely his decision of when that is.

Great post with some perspective. This program under Lon isn’t perfect by any means but it has been top 25 on average over the past decade. It is currently lacking the upside due to recruiting misses. Difference is when Lon misses on his 1st target he usually backfills with a decent transfer. That is why we have been so consistent in fielding a competitive tournament team. Fans need to just enjoy the ride until he hangs them up.
 
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Great post with some perspective. This program under Lon isn’t perfect by any means but it has been top 25 on average over the past decade. It is currently lacking the upside due to recruiting misses. Difference is when Lon misses on his 1st target he usually backfills with a decent transfer. That is why we have been so consistent in fielding a competitive tournament team. Fans need to just enjoy the ride until he hangs them up.

I'm going solely off of SoonerStats (so I'm not sure of it's accuracy), but they have OU finishing ranked in the top 25 only 3 times in Kruger's tenure, and none in the past 4 seasons.

Ken Pom doesn't have us in his ending top 25 unless you go back to 2016.

If you figure top 25 entering the tournament is a top 6 seed, we haven't been one since 2016.

We've probably been a legit top 25 team 2-3 times in Kruger's 10 seasons. Is that good enough? As a comparison only, Sampson finished ranked in 6 of his last 7 seasons (again, according to SoonerStats).
 
I'm going solely off of SoonerStats (so I'm not sure of it's accuracy), but they have OU finishing ranked in the top 25 only 3 times in Kruger's tenure, and none in the past 4 seasons.

Ken Pom doesn't have us in his ending top 25 unless you go back to 2016.

If you figure top 25 entering the tournament is a top 6 seed, we haven't been one since 2016.

We've probably been a legit top 25 team 2-3 times in Kruger's 10 seasons. Is that good enough? As a comparison only, Sampson finished ranked in 6 of his last 7 seasons (again, according to SoonerStats).

If you aggregate and average every team’s results over the past decade I can guarantee there are not 25 programs with better overall results. There will be many programs with unsustained high points and corresponding low points of not making the postseason for multiple years. The consistency matters when evaluating success in college athletics.
 
If you aggregate and average every team’s results over the past decade I can guarantee there are not 25 programs with better overall results. There will be many programs with unsustained high points and corresponding low points of not making the postseason for multiple years. The consistency matters when evaluating success in college athletics.

I knew that is what you meant (and meant to address it), but I don't like looking at it that way.

Sure I like the consistency, but we're not performing well enough, often enough, for me to be content with those results.

Also not sure I agree that we are top 25 in the aggregate. We've had a few absolute stinkers during Lon's 10 years, including, arguably, the worst season in our history. We might still be top 25 in the aggregate, but on average, we've been a top 30-35 type team most years.
 
OU challenges for a national championship about once a decade, maybe a smidge more. That's not blue blood, but it's pretty solid. It would be nice to double that rate to once every five years, but I don't see how to do that without handing out money bags to recruits.

(Maybe OU cheats for recruits already. But if so, they're not very good at it!)
 
But this is not what most posters that are arguing about wanting to be competitive are saying. Multiple posters have now come back and said as long as we are competing for a conference championship and a conference tournament championship they honestly don’t care what the tournament results are.

That is going to be spun into well if we have a competitive team in the conference we should get a higher seed which should mean we have a better chance in the tournament.

Multiple posters have pointed out the history of being upset as the higher seed but posters have flat said they don’t care about that as long The number is shiny looking on the bracket.

My point to that is who cares if it is an eight or a nine seed if you win the first game and lose to the one seed in the second round if you were arguing that it only matters that you make the tournament as a high seed which is what a couple posters are saying.

It has been pointed out that Oklahoma lost to a 13 seed they lost to an 11 seed they lost to other seeds way worse than what they had and posters basically have said that doesn’t matter because they competed for a conference championship or a conference tournament championship.

I think one poster even said if they make a tournament run that just puts the gravy on top to him not that he cares about tournament runs because it’s a crapshoot. This is the type of thinking that I don’t understand that people are getting up in arms about if Oklahoma is a seven or an eight seed if they claim they don’t care about the tournament runs.

Looking at this year‘s conference finish and the number seven seed people were claiming that this team isn’t competitive because of the final conference record. However if you actually look at those games other posters have pointed out that the six teams that finished ahead of Oklahoma we’re all in the top 25 are all a six seed or higher in the tournament and Oklahoma‘s worst loss to one of those teams without looking it up was 10 points or less and was a competitive game pretty much every time but that doesn’t matter to most people on here because they didn’t get the W which is understandable.

In my opinion what people are claiming though which is the complete unknown is if they change coaches people are acting like it immediately changes those losses into wins.

I get wanting to recruit better but again Oklahoma really hasn’t recruited that poorly except in the post I one hundred percent agree it would be nice to have a guy that doesn’t seem like a complete project for three years just to be somewhat formidable for one season.

However, when you then claim that bringing in A junior college player listed at 6 foot eight and 210 pounds is going to bang in this league and change your post game around I find personally find that laughable.

If you are bringing in a 6’9 245 pound banger that has some skill so be it but those guys are a dime a dozen that everybody is looking for. Oklahoma had some luck last year on the transfer market and hopefully they can do it again with one if not two post players.

Personally I don’t think overall the results of this team are that far off from what people are wanting but again I also believe that Kruger is getting negatively recruited against due to his age which is only going to get worse each season. The problem is you don’t tell a guy that has had the results that he has had that he hast to get out. Everybody knows the end is probably near but it’s most likely his decision of when that is.

Good post. Put me in the high shining seed and i don't care if we get upset in the tournament bucket. You gotta be in that position to make runs for the natty
 
I knew that is what you meant (and meant to address it), but I don't like looking at it that way.

Sure I like the consistency, but we're not performing well enough, often enough, for me to be content with those results. Reasonable take. My question is what is the program doing outside of Lon to warrant a better product? We don’t have top 25 arena/facilities/donations and we couple it with arguably the worst fans in the country.

Also not sure I agree that we are top 25 in the aggregate. We've had a few absolute stinkers during Lon's 10 years, including, arguably, the worst season in our history. We might still be top 25 in the aggregate, but on average, we've been a top 30-35 type team most years. Agreee with your last sentence. Most years (especially recently) we have been in that ~35 overall ranking. I’d rather have 2 tourney bids as an 8 seed over a 6-seed followed up with an nit bid personally.

Commented in quote
 
So disrespectful. I was reading a CBS article about a bunch of NCAA Tournament historical data, and it had Kelvin Sampson listed as a coach of a top 4 seed that has never taken a team to a Final Four.

smh
 
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