TCU moves to 10-0. Best start in school history.

thebigabd said:
For the record, I am completely aware of the potential this thread has to blow up in my face about halfway through conference season. :)
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Coach of the year is tough. If somebody finally knocks off KU; there would likely to be a large sentiment for that coach to be COY. If KU wins again; there will be a large sentiment to give it to Self. For Johnson to win it they would need to go at least .500 in conference.
 
There is a strong correlation between highly ranked players and national championships...but the strongest correlation is with first round draft picks/NBA players. Even the mid-majors that make deep runs have them:

Butler - Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack
Wichita State - Clemanthony Early (Baker will also be a pro)
VCU - Larry Sanders

Two of those guys signed extensions worth over $80mm.
 
campbest said:
There is a strong correlation between highly ranked players and national championships...but the strongest correlation is with first round draft picks/NBA players. Even the mid-majors that make deep runs have them:

Butler - Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack
Wichita State - Clemanthony Early (Baker will also be a pro)
VCU - Larry Sanders

Two of those guys signed extensions worth over $80mm.
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Good point
 
campbest said:
There is a strong correlation between highly ranked players and national championships...but the strongest correlation is with first round draft picks/NBA players. Even the mid-majors that make deep runs have them:

Butler - Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack
Wichita State - Clemanthony Early (Baker will also be a pro)
VCU - Larry Sanders

Two of those guys signed extensions worth over $80mm.
Click to expand...
Excellent points. But what were those guys ranked by the various services coming out of high school?
 
campbest said:
There is a strong correlation between highly ranked players and national championships...but the strongest correlation is with first round draft picks/NBA players. Even the mid-majors that make deep runs have them:

Butler - Gordon Hayward, Shelvin Mack
Wichita State - Clemanthony Early (Baker will also be a pro)
VCU - Larry Sanders

Two of those guys signed extensions worth over $80mm.
Click to expand...

Bingo.
 
Sooner04 said:
Excellent points. But what were those guys ranked by the various services coming out of high school?
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I agree with you, you don't need elite (i.e. Top 20) ranked players to make a Final Four...but in order to win a national championship...statistics show you do. Not saying it can't be done, just never has.

The NCAA tournament is about match-ups, the best team does not often win (OU last year?). Look at Butler, I love Brad Stevens and what they accomplished, but they only advanced on a bonehead foul by Pitt's Nasir Robinson on a full court heave with two seconds left. If that doesn't take place, we may never hear about Butler's legacy. Looking at a final result skews people's thinking, just like a committee member looking at the Creighton loss might say "what a terrible outcome", but yet not have any clue OU was the better team for most of the game.

It's all one big crap-shoot when you have a one and done format...but under the lights, in a national championship game, give me the the team with more elite talent over the real good college players.
 
I love what OU is putting on the floor right now, but lets be honest, there is no one as good as Gordon Hayward or Shelvin Mack. To win a championship, someone is going to have to put the team on their back, yet to be seen if OU has that guy yet.
 
bgrch1350 said:
No. I'm saying if your team is led by the 113th player and guys who aren't even ranked. You have no chance at winning a national championship.
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Do some research- 2013 Louisville won the title- their leading scorer-Russ Smith. He was a 2 star post-grad. Hmmm.... Their top rebounder and 3rd leading scorer, gorgui Dieng-3 star. Something doesn't add up here..
 
campbest said:
I love what OU is putting on the floor right now, but lets be honest, there is no one as good as Gordon Hayward or Shelvin Mack. To win a championship, someone is going to have to put the team on their back, yet to be seen if OU has that guy yet.
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Agreed. There may be one I don't remember, but I can't think of a single team that played for or won a NC without a go-to player who could take over at crunch time and will his team to a victory. Jimmy V's N.C. State team was as close as any team in my memory when Lorenzo Charles had a near miracle tip in at the buzzer to beat a powerhouse Houston team.

We were hoping Buddy would be that guy, and maybe he will before the season is over. It's also possible TaShawn could assume that role. He showed flashes of it in the Tulsa game. Is he capable of being a dominant scorer, rebounder and defender on a consistent basis? Cousins is another who is playing really well, better than anyone in our backcourt right now. But, the jury is still out on any of those three becoming the kind of player who can "put the team on their back."

That's not to say this OU team can't make a deep run in March without a genuine go-to player. But making a deep run and winning a national title are different things entirely.
 
All I'm saying is there are many ways to skin a cat. I think most here would agree that our 2002 team was as good as anybody at the Final Four. We were most certainly better than Indiana, but they had the ten-year NBA player on their roster. Our combined NBA experience for the 2002 team adds up to zilch.

Of course you want the elite talent, but I don't think you can just snap your fingers and say, "here, elite talent, come play for us!" We're going to have to build to that, and I like the track we're on.

I like it a lot.
 
campbest said:
I agree with you, you don't need elite (i.e. Top 20) ranked players to make a Final Four...but in order to win a national championship...statistics show you do. Not saying it can't be done, just never has.

The NCAA tournament is about match-ups, the best team does not often win (OU last year?). Look at Butler, I love Brad Stevens and what they accomplished, but they only advanced on a bonehead foul by Pitt's Nasir Robinson on a full court heave with two seconds left. If that doesn't take place, we may never hear about Butler's legacy. Looking at a final result skews people's thinking, just like a committee member looking at the Creighton loss might say "what a terrible outcome", but yet not have any clue OU was the better team for most of the game.

It's all one big crap-shoot when you have a one and done format...but under the lights, in a national championship game, give me the the team with more elite talent over the real good college players.
Click to expand...

I refuse to look into the rankings of all services but I have looked into the Rivals rankings and Florida won back to back titles without a single recruit ranked in the top 30. I have no idea what some of those players were ranked on other sites. Florida had a large collection of top 150 players. One or two were ranked in the top 50 but not better than 31.

Did you know? In the history of Rivals Rankings (2003 is as far back as I could find) a #1 rated recruit has never won a National Championship. In fact, the top 3 recruits from 2003 to present have won a total of 2 championships; both by 2011 Kentucky (#2 Anthony Davis, #3 Michael Kidd-Gilchrest). In comparison, recruits ranked 98-100 have won 1 Championship during the same time period--#98 Shabazz Napier, 2013 UCONN.
 
Laxtothemax12 said:
Do some research- 2013 Louisville won the title- their leading scorer-Russ Smith. He was a 2 star post-grad. Hmmm.... Their top rebounder and 3rd leading scorer, gorgui Dieng-3 star. Something doesn't add up here..
Click to expand...

Siva, dieng, ware, price, Harrell 4 star recruits

Behanan, blackshear 5 star recruits

Does this add up?
 
StatGeek said:
I refuse to look into the rankings of all services but I have looked into the Rivals rankings and Florida won back to back titles without a single recruit ranked in the top 30. I have no idea what some of those players were ranked on other sites. Florida had a large collection of top 150 players. One or two were ranked in the top 50 but not better than 31.

Did you know? In the history of Rivals Rankings (2003 is as far back as I could find) a #1 rated recruit has never won a National Championship. In fact, the top 3 recruits from 2003 to present have won a total of 2 championships; both by 2011 Kentucky (#2 Anthony Davis, #3 Michael Kidd-Gilchrest). In comparison, recruits ranked 98-100 have won 1 Championship during the same time period--#98 Shabazz Napier, 2013 UCONN.
Click to expand...

Brewer was a 5 star recruit
 
StatGeek said:
I refuse to look into the rankings of all services but I have looked into the Rivals rankings and Florida won back to back titles without a single recruit ranked in the top 30. I have no idea what some of those players were ranked on other sites. Florida had a large collection of top 150 players. One or two were ranked in the top 50 but not better than 31.

Did you know? In the history of Rivals Rankings (2003 is as far back as I could find) a #1 rated recruit has never won a National Championship. In fact, the top 3 recruits from 2003 to present have won a total of 2 championships; both by 2011 Kentucky (#2 Anthony Davis, #3 Michael Kidd-Gilchrest). In comparison, recruits ranked 98-100 have won 1 Championship during the same time period--#98 Shabazz Napier, 2013 UCONN.
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Not trying to make a moving target, but I arbitrarily stated Top 20. With that said, you have to have NBA players to win a title. The career earnings for Brewer, Noah, Horford, Speights speak for themselves.

If you dig in your link deeper, Brewer was also the top rated 4 star at #31 - they had to cut it off at some point. There are also 17 current NBA players or lottery picks ranked ahead of him...he was a 4 star by default.

Additionally, Horford was #37 - six slots below a five star - and Noah was #75. That class was stacked.
 
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campbest said:
Not trying to make a moving target, but I arbitrarily stated Top 20. With that said, you have to have NBA players to win a title. The career earnings for Brewer, Noah, Horford, Speights speak for themselves.

If you dig in your link deeper, Brewer was also the top rated 4 star at #31 - they had to cut it off at some point. There are also 17 current NBA players or lottery picks ranked ahead of him...he was a 4 star by default.

Additionally, Horford was #37 - six slots below a five star - and Noah was #75. That class was stacked.
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I wasn't attempting to argue the point(s) you were making, as I generally agree with them.

As for stars and rankings--Brewer & Horford were 4 stars and ranked in the 30's, generally speaking this is not the profile people are talking about when they mention recruiting elite talent; the profile is closer to your original sentiment. As usual, the discussion will continually morph, which is why I asked for the definition earlier in the thread, but as we can see no definition will be forth coming. And when one is provided it will change once refuted (not getting after you but you did change from top 20 to top 31 and x number of spots from a 5 star).
 
sheepdogs1 said:
How many #1 recruits spend 4 years in college?
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Since 2003, all the #1 players either went straight to the NBA or were 1 & done. Which always leads to the question of how valuable (to college basketball) they really are?

Also a correction: the 98-100 group won 2 Championships just like the 1-3 group, Napier won 2 with UCONN.
 
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