Transfer thread

[cvangild]

Again, he didn't coach Soares multiple years. Moore is two games into his second year. Oweh improved against a collection of directional schools and then hit rock bottom.

So we aren't counting Moore's stats this season since he has played only two games, but we can see with certainty say that Oweh is much better this year since he's played in 3 games this year....got it.

If you're looking for multiple years as your gauge (you love to move goal posts), then this will be an impossible metric to measure most coaches by these days, since the portal has created a revolving door for players to chase $'s.

 

[SoonerDutch]

Again, he didn't coach Soares multiple years. Moore is two games into his second year. Oweh improved against a collection of directional schools and then hit rock bottom.

Fair although but rereading close you asked two questions. I am going to paste them below and bold them.

I’d ask which our our guys, based on the eye test, got significantly better?
IMO, Oweh/Soares/Godwin/Moore have all improved.

Since Moser arrived, can you think of a single player he has coached for multiple years where you can say, hey, this guy clearly made a leap?

Oweh/Godwin/Moore. I guess Jacob Groves although he had a pretty mediocre ceiling (don’t want to open up another debate). Cole too I guess haha.

It’s ok to disagree on Oweh, that’s pretty clear we don’t see eye to eye there. I understand your argument about discounting non-con & conference games, although I disagree. I think we both agree he needed a new start but don’t want to put words in your mouth.

I’m not really willing to engage you here if you’re going to discount every example brought to you because of some disqualifying condition (although I don’t see you acknowledging Godwin has improved lol).

 

[snydrosooner]

Did you read? I said guys he has coached multiple years and specifically mentioned high school recruits. He coached Soares for one year, and I gave him credit for Soares two or three posts back. Moore is two games into his second season. We will see how much he improves, I hope he bucks the trend. Oweh absolutely did not improve. He was playing worse basketball in Feb and March of 2024 than he was in Feb and March of 2023. Godwin's gotten a bit better but hasn't expanded his game -- for all the talk about his shooting in scrimmages and practice, we have seen zero evidence of that in games. And I didn't say Tanner and Jacob should have been all conference players. I think that it would have been reasonable to expect both to improve once they had a full season in the Big 12 under their belts.

Hill

 

[SoonerDutch]

Again, he didn't coach Soares multiple years. Moore is two games into his second year. Oweh improved against a collection of directional schools and then hit rock bottom.

I’d ask which our our guys, based on the eye test, got significantly better?

Apologies for confusion with Soares specifically, there was no qualifier about multiple years in the original question.

Regarding the other question, can you list the specific players that I can use to answer the question? That will make it a little easier to ensure we’re on the same page with the conditions you’re applying.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Again, he didn't coach Soares multiple years. Moore is two games into his second year. Oweh improved against a collection of directional schools and then hit rock bottom.

and yet you are ready to say Oweh is improved after 3 games in his first year away from PM?

 

[hoopsaustin]

Guys with multiple years under Moser (2+):

Cortes, Noland, Harkless, Groves, Hill, Moore, Uzan, Oweh, Godwin, Groves/Groves, Gibson

Here is my chart of guys before OU compared to their last year at OU using my scoring system:

Player	Before OU	Last OU	Plus/Minus
Rivaldo Soares	41.2	63.7	22.5​
Jalon Moore	42	61.2	19.2​
Yaya Keita	23.4	41.1	17.7​
John Hugley IV	44	57.9	13.9​
Javian McCollum	45.6	52.9	7.3​
Jordan Goldwire	45.5	52.1	6.6​
Ethan Chargois	47	51.2	4.2​
Sam Godwin	54.9	58.1	3.2​
Marvin Johnson	40.8	41.5	0.7​
Grant Sherfield	56.2	55.4	-0.8​
Jacob Groves	50.8	45.7	-5.1​
Tanner Groves	66.7	60.3	-6.4​
Joseph Bamisile	47.4	37.3	-10.1​
Le'Tre Darthard	55.5	42.1	-13.4​

*This chart includes 1 year transfers


Here is a breakdown of scoring tenure while at OU for guys who were with Moser for at least 2 years (Not including their score prior to arrival):

Who	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3	AFTER
Cortes	38.6​	38.1​	​	30.6​
Noland	50​	30.7​	​
Harkless	47​	46.8​	​	65.2​
J. Groves	40.8​	45.7​	?
Hill	58.8​	58.8​	53.8​	58.9​
Uzan	46​	44.3​	?
Oweh	41.6​	54.6​	?
Godwin	61​	58.1​
T. Groves	74.1​	64.1​	60.3​	N/A
Gibson	50.3​	58.2​	​	61.9​

*This chart only inlcudes multiple Moser years

You see a big jump from Prior to a first year at OU (not including recruits), but aside from Oweh/Gibson/JGroves ... you do not see a marked improvement in score.

Worse - Noland, T. Groves, Hill
Same (within +/- 3) - Cortes, Harkless, Hill, Uzan, Godwin
Better - J. Groves, Oweh, Gibson

Why is your chart so hard on darthard? He was a nice player for us. So I want to understand

 

[snydrosooner]

Why is your chart so hard on darthard? He was a nice player for us. So I want to understand

Didn’t hill double his per game points from 2021 to 2022 year?

 

[WichitaSooner]

I’d ask which our our guys, based on the eye test, got significantly better?

Apologies for confusion with Soares specifically, there was no qualifier about multiple years in the original question.

Regarding the other question, can you list the specific players that I can use to answer the question? That will make it a little easier to ensure we’re on the same page with the conditions you’re applying.

Los, Oweh, Tanner, Jacob, Cortes, Noland -- those are the guys off the top of my head who have played multiple seasons under Moser at OU. I may be missing one or two but our turnover rate is so high that not many guys have stuck around. And Hill, snydrosoner is right, it feels so long ago that I forgot he had two years under Moser.

 

[SoonerBounce13]

Los, Oweh, Tanner, Jacob, Cortes, Noland -- those are the guys off the top of my head who have played multiple seasons under Moser at OU. I may be missing one or two but our turnover rate is so high that not many guys have stuck around. And Hill, snydrosoner is right, it feels so long ago that I forgot he had two years under Moser.

Los, Oweh, Tanner, Jacob, Cortes, Noland, Hill, Godwin

 

[SoonerDutch]

Los, Oweh, Tanner, Jacob, Cortes, Noland -- those are the guys off the top of my head who have played multiple seasons under Moser at OU. I may be missing one or two but our turnover rate is so high that not many guys have stuck around. And Hill, snydrosoner is right, it feels so long ago that I forgot he had two years under Moser.

Turnover rate is high at most programs now, I think that should probably go without saying but feel need to add context if you’re implying it’s unique to OU.

Your original question is what I want to answer, it’s bolded below. Again using only the players you list (except for Godwin who I think meets your qualifications).

Since Moser arrived, can you think of a single player he has coached for multiple years where you can say, hey, this guy clearly made a leap?

Improved: Godwin (who I mentioned twice in responses to this question), Oweh, Jacob

Stayed the Same: Hill & Tanner (I would put Harkless & Gibson here too).

Got Worse: Uzan, Noland, Cortes

TEvans actually listed the sample size and Gibson/Harkless should also be included.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Turnover rate is high at most programs now, I think that should probably go without saying but feel need to add context if you’re implying it’s unique to OU.

Your original question is what I want to answer, it’s bolded below. Again using only the players you list (except for Godwin who I think meets your qualifications).

Since Moser arrived, can you think of a single player he has coached for multiple years where you can say, hey, this guy clearly made a leap?

Improved: Godwin (who I mentioned twice in responses to this question), Oweh, Jacob

Stayed the Same: Hill & Tanner (I would put Harkless & Gibson here too).

Got Worse: Uzan, Noland, Cortes

TEvans actually listed the sample size and Gibson/Harkless should also be included.

Did those last two guys play two years for Moser?

I’ll agree to disagree on Oweh improving. But even using your view, that’s still way too many guys who haven’t improved or have gotten worse.

And to your first point, yes, turnover is rampant everywhere. It’s worse at OU than almost every power conference school.

 

[SoonerDutch]

Did those last two guys play two years for Moser?

I’ll agree to disagree on Oweh improving. But even using your view, that’s still way too many guys who haven’t improved or have gotten worse.

And to your first point, yes, turnover is rampant everywhere. It’s worse at OU than almost every power conference school.

Do you have data for the bolded? I skimmed through the major CBB analytics sites and didn’t see it, I’d be curious to see how that that tracks.

TBC, I misunderstood TEvans chart so apologies. Harkless and Gibson played two seasons but one was under LK.

But again, you asked if a single player has improved under Moser who has played for him two seasons? I feel that’s been pretty clearly answered in the affirmative (although I laugh seeing you refusing to type out GODWIN). Using this specific sample size (your conditions, not mine) it looks like it’s a coin flip whether a player ends up better than not.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Do you have data for the bolded? I skimmed through the major CBB analytics sites and didn’t see it, I’d be curious to see how that that tracks.

TBC, I misunderstood TEvans chart so apologies. Harkless and Gibson played two seasons but one was under LK.

But again, you asked if a single player has improved under Moser who has played for him two seasons? I feel that’s been pretty clearly answered in the affirmative (although I laugh seeing you refusing to type out GODWIN). Using this specific sample size (your conditions, not mine) it looks like it’s a coin flip whether a player ends up better than not.

TEvans or one of our other portal experts posted the data back in the spring about turnover rate and we were certainly at the high end of power conference schools. I’d have to go back and find that thread but it was discussed quite a bit at the time.

I’ve made my thoughts on Sam known. To summarize, yes, he has improved somewhat, but he hasn’t taken a big leap. Maybe he makes that jump this year, but so far, his game looks very similar to the past two seasons. If he shows us an improved shot, better passing, and is able to improve his play against good competition, then we’ll be onto something.

 

[SoonerDutch]

TEvans or one of our other portal experts posted the data back in the spring about turnover rate and we were certainly at the high end of power conference schools. I’d have to go back and find that thread but it was discussed quite a bit at the time.

I’ve made my thoughts on Sam known. To summarize, yes, he has improved somewhat, but he hasn’t taken a big leap. Maybe he makes that jump this year, but so far, his game looks very similar to the past two seasons. If he shows us an improved shot, better passing, and is able to improve his play against good competition, then we’ll be onto something.

I would love to see the data behind this claim, maybe you can find it and repost it but NBD if you can’t track it down.

I’m also glad you acknowledge Godwin plays for OU. I agree, he is not an ideal primary 5 in the Big 12/SEC and his game is limited but I unequivocally believe he is better than he was when he got to OU which is what you originally asked (repasting below, especially since “leap” is now “big leap”). I also want to be clear that I’ve listed three answers to your original question, two that you now disagree with because of sample size (Oweh) and now an additional qualification that he hasn’t improved enough (Godwin). I was not a huge Jacob Groves fan, I’m sure there was something wrong with his development or some sort of additional qualification that you can also point out to make him not relevant so no need to rehash that conversation.

Since Moser arrived, can you think of a single player he has coached for multiple years where you can say, hey, this guy clearly made a leap?

TBC, I don’t believe the fact that Godwin is in a role as OU’s primary 5 & his game is limited is a development issue. If anything, I think PM is getting a lot out of him given his limitations and the role he is being forced to play.

You don’t need to respond, I am derailing this thread. Enjoy the season.

 

[TEvans4Three]

But what metric are you using? I go off Sports Reference, which shows not only counting stats, but per 40 minutes, per 100 possessions, and advanced metrics. All in all, we see very few guys who have made meaningful improvement. If guys are barely improving, staying the same, or slightly regressing, we have no chance to get better as a team. If the folks who constantly point to NIL as an excuse for our results are right, then it is even more important that the handful of guys who stick around get a lot better. Full credit to Moser for Moore and Soares last season. They were far better than before OU and far better than I expected. But we need to start developing the guys who sign with us out of high school.

Sorry guys was very busy yesterday.


I get my stats from sports-reference. I have posted my full value lines before with all the sports-refence data in them previously. So I thought my overall number would suffice, Ill try to go full on next time. Just didn't want to muddy up a post with a glob of numbers.

I basically have a calculation that takes in shooting %s, PER, W/S, points, rebounds, assists per game...etc. Everything is a pull from sports-reference. I can bring the calculations here when I get to my home computer.

The idea in my number was to try and evaluate incoming and outgoing talent. How good is a portal kid, etc. I know my method started out crude but got some help with some tweaking to make it close to a number I feel okay with.

I will share the formula later.

 

[TEvans4Three]

Here is my comparison ... post-portal for both rosters (assuming Nwankwo add)

To consider via last year to this one:
-None of us expected the massive jumps from Moore/Soares
-Godwin took a small step back with a bigger role (efficiency wise, backup help would be nice Wague/Northweather)
-Uzan took a small step back, (46.0-44.2)
-Oweh took a big step back, (54.6-41.6)
-McCollum actually improved his Eff Rating (45.6-52.9)
-Hugley IV actually took a big step forward, (44.0-57.9)
-Darthard took a big step back eff rating, (55.5-42.1)
-Soares obv the MVP, our worst rated transfer, (41.2-63.7!)
-Moore is 2nd, our 2nd worst rated transfer, (42.0-61.2)

So it is all a crap-shoot. We actually look better on paper, but who knows who will work well within the system and who will dud out.
I think there is a lot of hindsight going on, bc we saw the results already, but comparing the rosters it is not as bad as perceived.

23-2024
View attachment 1861

2022-23
View attachment 1862

This is what the full data sheet looks like, if you recall, from the Portal thread. (please open the attachment(s) if they dont pre-open for you)

The Base Score is based off of: shooting %s + PER + WS (these get summed together then weighted)
The P/R/A Score is based off of: Points, Rebounds, Assists (these get summed together then weighted)
The Combo Score is adding the Base + P/R/A
Multi is the multiplier for the KenPom team ranking, it adjusts for smaller schools level of comp
Final Score is the Combo Score multiplied by the multiplier
NIL is an arbitrary value I added to try and factor in how much players may cost based on their Final Score...I tried using Portal numbers we had heard as baselines for my calculations

 

[SoonerBounce13]

. Enjoy the season.

lol

 

[TEvans4Three]

Alright, so here is my T4ET score formula:

(eFG% + WS) + (PER + TS%)/4 = BASE Score (unclear why I bracketed it all if it was just addition)
(PPG * .2) + (RPG * .33) + (APG * .5) = PRA Score
BASE + PRA = COMBO

I was trying to weight efficiency higher than production, bc I like PER and WS above just straight stats.

This is a completely arbitrary number, just trying to find some correlation in evaluating incoming portal transfers and compare season to season...etc.

Typically it is not far off from how I view the roster, some exceptions with Wague and low minutes guys who's numbers skyrocket bc of quick bursts of play.

 

[TEvans4Three]

This was how I had this year's roster and portal in (green)/portal out (red).

Wague is higher bc of his short bursts inflating his PER.
Miles may be high bc of competition, but the rest of our roster lays our pretty well with how they finished the season for the most part.

 

[SoonerDutch]

View attachment 2095

This was how I had this year's roster and portal in (green)/portal out (red).

Wague is higher bc of his short bursts inflating his PER.
Miles may be high bc of competition, but the rest of our roster lays our pretty well with how they finished the season for the most part.

Love the negative NIL value for Maks haha. Can think of some guys from past teams who I think should be paying us lol.

Do you have the transfer information that was discussed earlier? The other poster didn’t have it but mentioned you might, would be interesting but NBD. Thanks for all you do.