Updated Sagarin Ratings

[SoonerBounce13]

My only point is that holding up one or two games and saying their results prove that a particular computer poll "doesn't work" is foolish and shows a fundamental misunderstanding of how the polls work.

He wasn't looking at one or two games. he was looking at the season as a whole. Pretty sure most publications have OUs SOS higher than OSUs

 

[oSuJeff97]

Aggy dope. Please explain how any sound algorithm can produce a higher ranking for lil brother when OU has the same record & according to sagarin a statistically relevant higher strength of schedule, higher winning % vs top 25 teams, higher winning % vs top 50 teams and a 1-0 head to head record vs lil brother.

It can't which is why sagarin's garbage rankings are ignored by the committee and he's not being paid any significant publishing fees.

Now crawl back under the rock you've been hiding under since OU blew out hillbilly ford & your bubble team.

LOL. Idiotic post is idiotic.

You are spot on Jeff. Some of our posters get a tad emotional and knee-jerk if the polls/computer rankings don't reflect their perception of where OU basketball should be ranked or assigned....especially if there appears to be an injustice with respect to beating a somewhat "equal" type of team (OSU, Baylor). And yet, some ranking services don't "seem" to reflect that...at least to us they don't.

As you mentioned, computer ranking services such as Kenpom and Sagarin include more variables (effeciency ratings, margin of victory, ect.) in their formulas. And those variables tend to "lessen" the effect of head to head results because the entire season, up to that point, is formulated. as the season moves on, the increasing sample size will allow these differences to work themselves out.

The good news for OU, regarding NCAA Selection, is that we have now beaten several teams that appear to be NCAA quality. In addition to that, the RPI seems to favor us right now with regards to not having any bad losses (losses to teams with a >100 RPI). If this team keeps progressing and winning most of the contested games with good teams, we will be fine.

Smart post and spot on.

Any ranking system that punishes a team in February for a tight win in November is flawed. Anyone can see that OU is entirely different team now than it was in the early going. We had three freshman and a rusty transfer getting tons of minutes.

Older results are weighted less, but they don't have ZERO weight.

That's the concept that an idiot like boca can't seem to get his tiny brain around.

Apropos - OU has advanced significantly in the computer polls in the past several weeks. You guys were hovering around 80-90 or so in both the KenPom and Sagarin ratings a few weeks ago.

Now you're all the way up to 48th in KenPom and 39th in Sagarin. That's a significant advancement in the computer polls that basically shows the team is playing on a totally different level the past few weeks.

 

[oSuJeff97]

He wasn't looking at one or two games. he was looking at the season as a whole. Pretty sure most publications have OUs SOS higher than OSUs

That's fine, but the Sagarin rating takes other factors into consideration -- not just record vs. SOS. That's what RPI is.

Again - it's a fundamental misunderstanding of what the poll is measuring.

 

[scrybe]

When the aggies' season has ended and they're watching the Sooners play in the tournament, they can all scream, "That should be us. Our Sagarin Rating was higher!!!"

 

[pnkranger]

Regardless of any of these arguments, anyone who would rank OSU and Baylor as being a better team right now today than OU is not watching the games...

We are playing better defensively and offensively, playing with fewer mistakes, and overall getting better each outing. You can't say the same for OSU or Baylor.

 

[skyvue]

Basically, our boorish aggie fan's stance seems to be: Any system that ranks oshwo above OU is accurate but beyond our meager levels of comprehension.

Further, anyone who agrees with him is "spot on" (pip pip and tally ho!), while anyone who disagrees is an idiot.

 

[skyvue]

Regardless of any of these arguments, anyone who would rank OSU and Baylor as being a better team right now today than OU is not watching the games....

Careful! The orange-clad interloper might be forced to call you an idiot!

 

[pnkranger]

Careful! The orange-clad interloper might be forced to call you an idiot!

If he watched OSU play ISU at home (which looked like a laughable AAU game) and the OU @ BU game on the same night, he would know better.

 

[skyvue]

If he watched OSU play ISU at home (which looked like a laughable AAU game) and the OU @ BU game on the same night, he would know better.

No, no, you don't get it. On-court performance and results don't matter. Only impenetrable secret formulas that track obscure matrices count!

 

[MNsooner]

I deleted the political comments for breaking this rule:

"#5 Political references/analogies are not allowed."

 

[Mr.B!!!]

Basically, our boorish aggie fan's stance seems to be: Any system that ranks oshwo above OU is accurate but beyond our meager levels of comprehension.

Further, anyone who agrees with him is "spot on" (pip pip and tally ho!), while anyone who disagrees is an idiot.

Great, Aggie Jeff rolling over here and calling a poster an idiot, Boca may troll every now and then (which is awesome IMHO), but he is definitely not an "idiot". Sorry, but any computer ranking that has oSu or Baylor ranked ahead of OU at this point in the season probably still has Space Invaders or Centipede as its top selling game. That being said, at least Aggie Jeff still comes around, whatever happened to Blankenship and osufan?

 

[skyvue]

That being said, at least Aggie Jeff still comes around, whatever happened to Blankenship and osufan?

All the aggies have avoided us since first round of Bedlam, oddly enough. Jeff's the only one who's posted since that game, I believe.

 

[Keller Sooner]

Rest assured, the aggies will be over here in force if they win at lower GI.

 

[MI Sooner]

Regardless of any of these arguments, anyone who would rank OSU and Baylor as being a better team right now today than OU is not watching the games...

We are playing better defensively and offensively, playing with fewer mistakes, and overall getting better each outing. You can't say the same for OSU or Baylor.

Sagarin isn't trying to rank teams in his predictor based on what they've accomplished. He's trying to predict what would happen if the two teams played. Basically, his ELO Chess ranking being higher than his predictor is saying that we wouldn't be expected to do as well as we've done if we replayed the our schedule. We've gotten lucky, in other words. Since we're 5-2 in close games (withing 7 points, I think), I think that might be the case.

As for those questioning the validity of his predictor ranking, do you think we'd be favored over Oklahoma St. or Baylor on a neutral court? I pretty sure the answer is no. Since Vegas lines are in the business of predicting results (or at least predicting how self-interested bettors will predict the results), I'd say that to the extent Sagarin lines up with Vegas, he's vindicated.

There are sites that track Sagarin's predictor results picking winners. I think he comes pretty close to the success rate of the Vegas line, which is impressive since there are games where things like injuries and suspensions obviously factor in the outcome but aren't in the predictor formula.

 

[DenverSooner]

Sagarin isn't trying to rank teams in his predictor based on what they've accomplished. He's trying to predict what would happen if the two teams played. Basically, his ELO Chess ranking being higher than his predictor is saying that we wouldn't be expected to do as well as we've done if we replayed the our schedule. We've gotten lucky, in other words. Since we're 5-2 in close games (withing 7 points, I think), I think that might be the case.

As for those questioning the validity of his predictor ranking, do you think we'd be favored over Oklahoma St. or Baylor on a neutral court? I pretty sure the answer is no. Since Vegas lines are in the business of predicting results (or at least predicting how self-interested bettors will predict the results), I'd say that to the extent Sagarin lines up with Vegas, he's vindicated.

There are sites that track Sagarin's predictor results picking winners. I think he comes pretty close to the success rate of the Vegas line, which is impressive since there are games where things like injuries and suspensions obviously factor in the outcome but aren't in the predictor formula.

We would be favored over Baylor on a neutral court. They were a 6.5 favorite at home before we beat them in Waco. You really need to have some faith and respect for your team.

I think OU would be favored over OSU on a neutral court but that game would be tight either way. After OU beats them in Stoolwater, then OU would be favored on a neutral court.

 

[WTSooner]

We would be favored over Baylor on a neutral court. They were a 6.5 favorite at home before we beat them in Waco. You really need to have some faith and respect for your team.

I think OU would be favored over OSU on a neutral court but that game would be tight either way. After OU beats them in Stoolwater, then OU would be favored on a neutral court.

You clearly have no idea how lines are determined.

 

[garyeb2]

We would be favored over Baylor on a neutral court. They were a 6.5 favorite at home before we beat them in Waco. You really need to have some faith and respect for your team.

I think OU would be favored over OSU on a neutral court but that game would be tight either way. After OU beats them in Stoolwater, then OU would be favored on a neutral court.

What is wrong with having respect for and faith in my team and being a realist. I don't expect M'Baye or Pledger to average 20 a game for the rest of the season. I don't expect the team to shoot 53% on the road very often.

OU's shots were falling early and often. Baylor's weren't. We got a lead and held on. I'm happy about all that. But, that game could have played out in dozen's of different ways. Many if not most of those ways could have resulted in an OU defeat.

Today OU is a 3 pt. favorite. I think they can win. I hope that they win. I respect their chances of winning. But, in college basketball, 3 pt. home home favorites win, what? 60% of the time. Mayby 65%. 3 pt. favorites lose frequently. So do 6 1/2 favorites. The best team usually wins .But, there is some randomness in the results. On one hand I think OU probably has won more than their fair share when they were alittle the best or close to being the the best team.

But, on the other, they could be as good as the early results indicate. It will take the rest of the season to know for sure. If the games were played today, I'm pretty sure Kansas, K State, Iowa St., and Baylor would be favored on a nuetral court. I'm not convinced that OSU would be. But, mayby.

 

[MI Sooner]

Oklahoma St. was only a 10.5 dog at Kansas today. They'd be favored over us today. It takes a lot to move teams 2-3 points relative to each other. Just look at how many ranking spots we'd drop or improve in Sagarin if our rating moved 2.5 points in either direction.