Right now they are on the same level as us because their noncon schedule was so much better. As the conference play continues, that advantage will fade for them because noncon will make up a smaller percentage of their overcall schedule. In any event, most experts think that as of now, they probably wouldn’t make it. If they don’t pick up a quad one win or two, they’ll likely need to win their tourney to get in.
I can see both sides of the scoring margin issue. I think the data does show that truly good teams tend to pummel bad opponents, so there is some use to it, but in college hoops, the awful teams are so bad that it maybe shouldn’t carry a ton of weight. In any event, that factor is probably one of the biggest things in our favor this year. We blew out the dregs of our schedule, so that’s helping prop us up a bit.