2025 NCAA Tourney Bracketology

WichitaSooner said:
If the field were being selected today, we would be in. But the margins between us and several other bubble teams are razor thin. If we lose first round and those teams all win a game or more, we will be in trouble. And because one of our biggest blemishes is our number of blowout losses, we need to avoid another noncompetitive game.

I wonder whether Sam will play. Again, it is beating a dead horse, but the lack of meaningful reporting on the basketball program is so annoying. 800 media members breathlessly report on Brent blathering on for eight hours without saying anything significant last week, but the status of a starter for the conference tournament merits no reporting, apparently.
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Fortunately for us, Sam's not any good and therefore won't be missed is he's unable to play.

LOL. Just kidding (sort of), Wichita. I'm glad you're concerned about Godwin's availability and glad you think we've got a shot at making the tourney.
 
cbertus6 said:
Here's a hypothetical for everyone that I don't think is crazy likely, but certainly possible. Say we lose to UGA on Wednesday, and the Horns knock off Vandy and take down their heated rival to make it to the SEC quarters. Does Texas jump us? Other teams still potentially able to pass us on the bubble with a run in their tourney (but not winning it) include Xavier, Boise, UNC, and Colorado State. The MW is a prime conference to have a bid stealer. The ACC could produce one too if UNC or Wake win their conference. A loss to UGA would really open a lot of doors that I'd rather be locked.
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I agree with your last sentence for sure. I think it would take a lot for Texas to jump us. Even though the shine has worn off a bit of the Michigan and Arizona wins, I think it’s still huge that we have tourney level wins in all of the major conferences - and our only losses are to SEC teams.
 
Just for some optimism since that is lacking (understandable given it’s OU bball), what is OU’s upside in seeding.

I’m thinking a win against UGA gets OU out of the play-in. Does a win against UK move them up to the 10 line?
 
cbertus6 said:
Here's a hypothetical for everyone that I don't think is crazy likely, but certainly possible. Say we lose to UGA on Wednesday, and the Horns knock off Vandy and take down their heated rival to make it to the SEC quarters. Does Texas jump us? Other teams still potentially able to pass us on the bubble with a run in their tourney (but not winning it) include Xavier, Boise, UNC, and Colorado State. The MW is a prime conference to have a bid stealer. The ACC could produce one too if UNC or Wake win their conference. A loss to UGA would really open a lot of doors that I'd rather be locked.
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I think a loss to UGA definitely puts us squarely on the bubble, however, I find a hard time seeing Texas jump us. We have much better WAB ranking, are 10-11 against Q1-Q2, while Texas is 8-14 against Q1-Q2. We also have much better non-conference wins.

My concern lies with the bid stealers... assuming we lose to UGA... it really just takes a San Francisco and a couple other teams to put us right where we were last season.
 
SoonerDutch said:
Just for some optimism since that is lacking (understandable given it’s OU bball), what is OU’s upside in seeding.

I’m thinking a win against UGA gets OU out of the play-in. Does a win against UK move them up to the 10 line?
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I hope we stay on the 11 line but out of Dayton. That's best possible scenario. Because we can beat a 6 seed and a 3 seed. That would be fun.
 
austing7 said:
I think a loss to UGA definitely puts us squarely on the bubble, however, I find a hard time seeing Texas jump us. We have much better WAB ranking, are 10-11 against Q1-Q2, while Texas is 8-14 against Q1-Q2. We also have much better non-conference wins.

My concern lies with the bid stealers... assuming we lose to UGA... it really just takes a San Francisco and a couple other teams to put us right where we were last season.
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In the scenario I presented, Texas would have gotten up to 10 wins against Q1 and Q2 and wouldn't have a Q3 loss like we do. Which is why I presented the hypothetical. And I certainly agree about the bid stealers.

Teams on the bubble to keep an eye on: Indiana, Ohio State, Xavier, Boise State, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNC, Texas (Boise, CSU, and SDSU could all also easily win the MWC)

Reasonable potential bid stealers with a minimal shot to get in without winning their conference: UC Irvine, North Texas, San Francisco, Wake Forest, George Mason, Dayton
 
SoonerDutch said:
Just for some optimism since that is lacking (understandable given it’s OU bball), what is OU’s upside in seeding.

I’m thinking a win against UGA gets OU out of the play-in. Does a win against UK move them up to the 10 line?
Click to expand...
win the conf tourney .. and OU would be maybe be as high as a 6 seed ..
 
cbertus6 said:
Here's a hypothetical for everyone that I don't think is crazy likely, but certainly possible. Say we lose to UGA on Wednesday, and the Horns knock off Vandy and take down their heated rival to make it to the SEC quarters. Does Texas jump us? Other teams still potentially able to pass us on the bubble with a run in their tourney (but not winning it) include Xavier, Boise, UNC, and Colorado State. The MW is a prime conference to have a bid stealer. The ACC could produce one too if UNC or Wake win their conference. A loss to UGA would really open a lot of doors that I'd rather be locked.
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If recent history tells us anything, if you are on the outside looking in (like Texas)....the committee doesn't necessarily value wins in your conference tournament unless you make a run to the championship game (and it also depends on who you beat as well). It's been a little more difficult to move the needle in a positive direction (winning a game or two) as opposed to losing early in your conference tournament.....which can definitely hurt you. It seems lately that you don't really improve your seeding all that much by winning in a conference tournament unless comparable bubble teams around you are losing early.

Xavier plays Marquette right off the bat and that would be a good win for them, but they are noticeable underdogs. The Mountain West is usually wide open, but the two best teams (New Mexico, Utah State) are easily in the field and hopefully one of them wins it.

As far as the ACC, NC and Wake are likely going to play each other in the quarterfinals (so one will be eliminated) and truthfully, neither of those teams can hang with Duke....much less Clemson/Louisville for that matter.

As a final note, the bid stealer likely comes from the A-10. I don't think VCU is all that good, but they appear to be in most of the brackets. So it wouldn't be a surprise to see a team like Dayton win this tournament and steal a bid.
 
St. Mary’s took care of business in the WCC semifinal. Gonzaga locked in a close one with San Francisco right now in the 2nd half. If Gonzaga can finish this one out, a bid stealer is taken off the board and OU inches closer to safety.
 
Thank you, Zags!

Now it’s just the power conferences and the A-10 we have to worry about.

Edited to add: the American is another concern. If anyone other than Memphis wins, that shrinks the bubble by one. Mountain West and Big West, as well. Hoping for chalk to prevail.
 
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From The Athletic:


SEC​
​

​


Locks: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt​

Should Be In: None​

In the Mix: Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas​

On the Fringe: None​

In The Mix​
​

​


Arkansas​

Profile Strengths: Two elite wins away from home, no bad losses.​

Profile Weaknesses: Disappointing 8-12 record against top two quadrants.​

Looking Ahead: Arkansas survived against Mississippi State on Saturday after blowing a big second-half lead, nudging the Razorbacks up toward safety. They are still in the mix to head to Dayton for the First Four, but a couple wins at the SEC tournament could elevate them above that level. The Hogs’ path in Nashville starts with a familiar foe: South Carolina, which embarrassed Arkansas in Columbia just over a week ago. Would the Razorbacks survive another Q2 loss to the SEC’s worst team? I would guess yes, but it would be an extremely stressful Selection Sunday.​
Oklahoma​

Profile Strengths: Elite top-end wins relative to the bubble, competitive metrics.​

Profile Weaknesses: Accumulating a lot of losses, conference record eyesore?​

Looking Ahead: Oklahoma solidified its fascinating resume with another road Q1 win at Texas on Saturday, giving the Sooners an impressive six Q1 wins. The 6-12 SEC record will be a talking point for many, but in truth, this is an NCAA Tournament resume beyond that disappointing mark. A loss to Georgia in the SEC tournament opener on Wednesday would give the committee an excuse for excluding the Sooners, should it want one, but a win would have OU in solid shape.​
Texas​

Profile Strengths: Outstanding quality metrics, five Q1 wins, no bad losses.​

Profile Weaknesses: Poor nonconference SOS, 8-14 record against top two quadrants.​
​
Looking Ahead: You can’t do that, Texas. Losing at home to a major bubble rival (Oklahoma) on Saturday leaves the Longhorns with a ton of work to do at the SEC tournament. Six games under .500 against the top two quadrants, an anchor of a nonconference strength of schedule ranking and average resume metrics mean the Longhorns need at least two and maybe three wins in Nashville. That journey through the bracket starts against Vanderbilt on Wednesday; Texas lost at Vandy in the teams’ lone meeting this season.
 
I know Cincinnati is currently on the wrong side of the bubble, but I'll be rooting for OSU to beat them today just to be safe
 
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