2025 NCAA Tourney Bracketology

[WichitaSooner]

Thank you, Drake!

 

[IBSooner]

So tomorrow only games to watch out for are the saint Mary’s Gonzaga games. Need both of them tonwin

 

[IndySooner]

Drake winning takes one out of play. Need to avoid major conference chaos.

 

[BulldogSooner]

I think we’re in.

 

[stormspencer]

The more I've studied the potential bracket over the last week or so, this is a really weak bubble. OU has 6 Q-1 wins and 10 combined Q-1/Q-2 wins. The loss to LSU was bad, but what has hurt OU more in the metrics was the 7 games against Q-4 opponents. But teams like North Carolina (1 Q-1 win), Xavier (1 Q-1 win, Boise (2 Q-1 wins), and San Diego State (3 Q-1 wins) really don't have any business being ahead of us in any bracket. San Diego State has a Q-3 loss and Boise has a Q-3 and a Q-4 loss.

OU's WAB (Win Above Bubble) ranking is 35....which is a big positive. Unless something really unconventional were to happen (gulp).....I think we are in at least the play-in game as of now. If we happen to beat Georgia, we are solidly in the field.....maybe as high as a 10 seed.

 

[soonertrash77]

If we lose to Georgia it’ll only take 3 or 4 bid stealers to push us out. We can still make it in with a loss but we will be very uncertain heading into Selection Sunday. That game is going to be huge and playing them without Godwin after how they beat us up on the glass the first time around is gonna be scary.

This is what living on the bubble feels like. If you feel like I do, that this is the PM ceiling, then get used to it. In a word it sucks.

 

[CoachTalk]

When you have those wins vs q1 those 7-0 q4 don’t matter IMO.

The more I've studied the potential bracket over the last week or so, this is a really weak bubble. OU has 6 Q-1 wins and 10 combined Q-1/Q-2 wins. The loss to LSU was bad, but what has hurt OU more in the metrics was the 7 games against Q-4 opponents. But teams like North Carolina (1 Q-1 win), Xavier (1 Q-1 win, Boise (2 Q-1 wins), and San Diego State (3 Q-1 wins) really don't have any business being ahead of us in any bracket. San Diego State has a Q-3 loss and Boise has a Q-3 and a Q-4 loss.

OU's WAB (Win Above Bubble) ranking is 35....which is a big positive. Unless something really unconventional were to happen (gulp).....I think we are in at least the play-in game as of now. If we happen to beat Georgia, we are solidly in the field.....maybe as high as a 10 seed.

 

[stormspencer]

When you have those wins vs q1 those 7-0 q4 don’t matter IMO.

Correct, but my point was 7 games against Q-4 opponents can drag down your overall NET, Kenpom, etc. when otherwise we would be sitting a little bit better. Scheduling isn't necessarily the most important component in the grand scheme, but when you're a borderline team, I would have preferred to play a few less of those Q-4 games and replaced them with teams in the 150-200 range. My hope is that we can avoid this next season.

 

[CoachTalk]

Correct, but my point was 7 games against Q-4 opponents can drag down your overall NET, Kenpom, etc. when otherwise we would be sitting a little bit better. Scheduling isn't necessarily the most important component in the grand scheme, but when you're a borderline team, I would have preferred to play a few less of those Q-4 games and replaced them with teams in the 150-200 range. My hope is that we can avoid this next season.

I’m with ya. I like that range more

 

[WaymanFan]

I think we’re in.

I just looked at the latest Bracketology on ESPN. I thought we would have gotten a little more of a bump from a road win last night, but apparently not. At the moment, we're in the "Last 4 In" group, but in the third spot. Xavier is in the 4th spot and considered the "last team in". I don't see a path into the Dance without a win against Georgia. I realize Lunardi's opinion isn't the only one out there, but I also remember a year ago at this time when we were above the "Last 4 In" line...and we know how that turned out. A loss against Georgia and we're an easy exclusion with a 6-12 conference record and a one-and-done exit in the conference tournament. Let's just beat Georgia so we can feel a little better on Selection Sunday.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I just looked at the latest Bracketology on ESPN. I thought we would have gotten a little more of a bump from a road win last night, but apparently not. At the moment, we're in the "Last 4 In" group, but in the third spot. Xavier is in the 4th spot and considered the "last team in". I don't see a path into the Dance without a win against Georgia. I realize Lunardi's opinion isn't the only one out there, but I also remember a year ago at this time when we were above the "Last 4 In" line...and we know how that turned out. A loss against Georgia and we're an easy exclusion with a 6-12 conference record and a one-and-done exit in the conference tournament. Let's just beat Georgia so we can feel a little better on Selection Sunday.

There is a path with a loss but it really puts us at the mercy of other teams. But our conference record doesn’t matter. That’s one that (fortunately for us) no longer factors in. It isn’t even listed on the team sheets the committee uses IIRC. Much like the record over your final 10 games is no longer a factor.

 

[Boom Soon]

I just looked at the latest Bracketology on ESPN. I thought we would have gotten a little more of a bump from a road win last night, but apparently not. At the moment, we're in the "Last 4 In" group, but in the third spot. Xavier is in the 4th spot and considered the "last team in". I don't see a path into the Dance without a win against Georgia. I realize Lunardi's opinion isn't the only one out there, but I also remember a year ago at this time when we were above the "Last 4 In" line...and we know how that turned out. A loss against Georgia and we're an easy exclusion with a 6-12 conference record and a one-and-done exit in the conference tournament. Let's just beat Georgia so we can feel a little better on Selection Sunday.

I agree with this. I remember thinking there was no way OU was going to be left out last year with 20 wins. It only took two or three bid stealers to end OU’s hope. I think it could be the same this year

 

[jmizzy4ou]

There is a path with a loss but it really puts us at the mercy of other teams. But our conference record doesn’t matter. That’s one that (fortunately for us) no longer factors in. It isn’t even listed on the team sheets the committee uses IIRC. Much like the record over your final 10 games is no longer a factor.

I didn't know this about the conference record. I'm sure it was mentioned, but I didn't log it in somehow. That should help us right?

 

[WichitaSooner]

I didn't know this about the conference record. I'm sure it was mentioned, but I didn't log it in somehow. That should help us right?

Definitely helps us. It’s ugly to look at but ultimately doesn’t factor in.

 

[IndySooner]

I agree with this. I remember thinking there was no way OU was going to be left out last year with 20 wins. It only took two or three bid stealers to end OU’s hope. I think it could be the same this year

Actually, it took five. It was unprecedented.

 

[stormspencer]

I really don't anticipate having another year of "bid stealers" like we had last year. But these are the conferences and teams we need to win the tournaments:

• American - need Memphis to win the tournament. They don't have another team in that conference near the bubble.
• Atlantic 10 - need VCU to win the tournament. Like the American Conference, this is a one-bid league currently (VCU).
• Big East - need St. John's, Marquette, UCONN or Creighton to win the tournament.....which is very likely.
• Big 10 - need Indiana, Ohio State, and Nebraska all to lose early. And gawd forbid, we can't having any of those teams winning it.
• Big 12 - just need one of the top 7 seeds to win that tournament. It wouldn't hurt if WV lost really early as well.
• Mountain West - Need New Mexico, Utah State or San Diego State to win the tournament. And hopefully Boise loses early.
• West Coast - Need St. Mary's or Gonzaga to win the tournament....which is very likely.

 

[NickZepp]

 

[WichitaSooner]

I really don't anticipate having another year of "bid stealers" like we had last year. But these are the conferences and teams we need to win the tournaments:

• American - need Memphis to win the tournament. They don't have another team in that conference near the bubble.
• Atlantic 10 - need VCU to win the tournament. Like the American Conference, this is a one-bid league currently (VCU).
• Big East - need St. John's, Marquette, UCONN or Creighton to win the tournament.....which is very likely.
• Big 10 - need Indiana, Ohio State, and Nebraska all to lose early. And gawd forbid, we can't having any of those teams winning it.
• Big 12 - just need one of the top 7 seeds to win that tournament. It wouldn't hurt if WV lost really early as well.
• Mountain West - Need New Mexico, Utah State or San Diego State to win the tournament. And hopefully Boise loses early.
• West Coast - Need St. Mary's or Gonzaga to win the tournament....which is very likely.

Nebraska collapsed so badly that they didn’t even make the conference tourney, so that’s one team we don’t have to worry about.

Lunardi was just on tv and unless I was hallucinating, we have moved off the “last four in” category. He apparently has us ahead of Baylor and Arky and Indiana. Not sure I trust that but that’s what he has at the moment.

 

[stormspencer]

Nebraska collapsed so badly that they didn’t even make the conference tourney, so that’s one team we don’t have to worry about.

Lunardi was just on tv and unless I was hallucinating, we have moved off the “last four in” category. He apparently has us ahead of Baylor and Arky and Indiana. Not sure I trust that but that’s what he has at the moment.

Good catch on Nebraska.....I had forgotten about them not even making the Big 10 tournament. They haven't won a game since Feb. 16th. At that time, they were 17-9.

I mistakenly left out the ACC....Duke, Clemson, or Louisville need to win that tournament. And one of those teams is very likely to win it.

 

[Moneyball]

Palm has us as a bye