Bracketology 2018

[SoonerBounce13]

At the end of the day, when the committee meets, I think they are going to have a hard time justifying OU over OSU. Same conference record but OSU has bigger wins. OSU has the head to head. OSU has been a better team the last half of the season and has been getting better.

THe only thing OU has over OSU is the non conference schedule and A superstar

 

[oudna]

CBS has downgraded us to last 4 in.

It’ll be last 4 out by Sunday.

 

[stormspencer]

CBS has downgraded us to last 4 in.

It’ll be last 4 out by Sunday.

If that is going to be the case, then who is going to knock us out. Virtually everyone below us is already out of their conference (having lost). So who magically jumps us without playing a game?

 

[slappy in OP]

If that is going to be the case, then who is going to knock us out. Virtually everyone below us is already out of their conference (having lost). So who magically jumps us without playing a game?

Agreed. With yesterday's results, we should be in by the thinnest of margins. Not much left to jump us as those teams have lost already too.

 

[OUSKINS]

If that is going to be the case, then who is going to knock us out. Virtually everyone below us is already out of their conference (having lost). So who magically jumps us without playing a game?

Bama and USC losing would help...would likely keep both of them behind us.

 

[oudna]

If that is going to be the case, then who is going to knock us out. Virtually everyone below us is already out of their conference (having lost). So who magically jumps us without playing a game?

We’ve already knocked ourselves out

The committee simply hasn’t met yet

 

[chuckb]

We’ve already knocked ourselves out

The committee simply hasn’t met yet

How will you respond...or will you when you're wrong?

 

[WichitaSooner]

How will you respond...or will you when you're wrong?

I'm guessing he either won't respond, or will just say that the committee of experts got it wrong and that his view was right.

 

[MichaelM]

CBS has downgraded us to last 4 in.

It’ll be last 4 out by Sunday.

What do you get out of this relentless pessimism in the face of evidence?

If OU doesn't make it, it's because the committee lied about their criteria. Simple as that.

 

[stormspencer]

Bama and USC losing would help...would likely keep both of them behind us.

USC is likely already ahead of us. Bama will lose to Auburn today.....but I still think they will make a "play-in" game.

 

[stormspencer]

We’ve already knocked ourselves out

The committee simply hasn’t met yet

Wrong. The committee has met several times. Do you not recall the "committee" releasing their top 16 teams back in early February?

 

[WaymanFan]

ESPN's latest Bracketology has us in the play-in game as an 11-seed. That pretty much means we're on the bubble. If we don't make it in, I'm certainly not blaming the committee. It's better to simply win a few basketball games and take them out of the mix.

 

[sperry]

I can't ever remember a scenario like this as far as the tournament goes.

If you blindly look at the resume, this team deserves to be in. But there is also zero doubt that this team is not the same as the one that played the first half of the year, and this version of the team is flat out atrocious (i.e. last place in the conference type bad.)

The "eye-test" is part of the equation. Here is how the NCAA defines that on their website: An extensive season-long evaluation of teams through watching games, conference monitoring calls and regional advisory committee rankings;


It also says "player and coach availability" is a factor.

There are pretty reasonable interpretations of either of those clauses that leave OU out of the field. I don't think the NCAA should do this, but ultimately I think this will be the deciding factor: Trae Young will bring a huge ratings boost to the otherwise basically irrelevant Tuesday night games in Dayton. He'll also help with ratings if OU were to somehow make a run.

 

[stormspencer]

ESPN's latest Bracketology has us in the play-in game as an 11-seed. That pretty much means we're on the bubble. If we don't make it in, I'm certainly not blaming the committee. It's better to simply win a few basketball games and take them out of the mix.

Among bracketologists, Lunardi (and a good portion of the ESPN network) is very pessimistic on OU. I heard Bilas rambling on about Notre Dame and Oklahoma State during the ACC games yesterday. Yes those two teams have looked good the last 2 weeks, but are we supposed to forget about November - January? This recency bias has taken over a good portion of the talking heads on that network.

If you look at the other bracketologists on bracket matrix....OU is practically a universal 10-seed, with more 9 seed projections than 11 seed projections as well far more 8 seed projections than 12 seed projections. Personally, I think we end up as a 10.

 

[oudna]

Wrong. The committee has met several times. Do you not recall the "committee" releasing their top 16 teams back in early February?

Yes, I posted it

They haven’t met since the full debacle

 

[soonerbms]

CBS has downgraded us to last 4 in.

It’ll be last 4 out by Sunday.

Damn, we really have fallen from grace if we're one of the last four out. I figured we'd at least be in the first four out.

 

[MichaelM]

As of Friday morning's BracketMatrix update, OU is in the tournament according to 100% of polled bracketologists.

OU is listed as a low 10 seed on average. Of the 15 teams behind OU (one 10, six 11's, plus the first four out and the next four out), only four teams are still playing. Alabama will probably pass OU with this win over Auburn. USC and Providence are only barely behind OU and both have chances for good wins. Mississippi State needs some good wins to even get in.

An 11 seed play-in game is very possible, but with just a little luck today, a 10 seed is not out of the question. I'd put my money on 11 seed with no play-in.


I'd also like to note that Houston is a potential 6 seed. Sign me up for that matchup.

 

[WichitaSooner]

As of Friday morning's BracketMatrix update, OU is in the tournament according to 100% of polled bracketologists.

OU is listed as a low 10 seed on average. Of the 15 teams behind OU (one 10, six 11's, plus the first four out and the next four out), only four teams are still playing. Alabama will probably pass OU with this win over Auburn. USC and Providence are only barely behind OU and both have chances for good wins. Mississippi State needs some good wins to even get in.

An 11 seed play-in game is very possible, but with just a little luck today, a 10 seed is not out of the question. I'd put my money on 11 seed with no play-in.


I'd also like to note that Houston is a potential 6 seed. Sign me up for that matchup.

And since so many people here apparently don't understand this, the bracket matrix combines projections from dozens of HUMANS. Anyone who thinks otherwise isn't paying attention, or just doesn't want to learn.

Also, a few weeks ago I had a feeling we could face Houston in the first round. Of course, at the time I thought we'd be on the 6 line rather than the other way around!

 

[BoulderSooner]

At the end of the day, when the committee meets, I think they are going to have a hard time justifying OU over OSU. Same conference record but OSU has bigger wins. OSU has the head to head. OSU has been a better team the last half of the season and has been getting better.

THe only thing OU has over OSU is the non conference schedule and A superstar

osu is not in the discussion of making the tourney

 

[WichitaSooner]

At the end of the day, when the committee meets, I think they are going to have a hard time justifying OU over OSU. Same conference record but OSU has bigger wins. OSU has the head to head. OSU has been a better team the last half of the season and has been getting better.

THe only thing OU has over OSU is the non conference schedule and A superstar

Having a superstar doesn't matter and won't come into consideration. Noncon sure as heck does matter, as it should. When you compare teams from the same league who have an identical conference record , the noncon is the one distinguishing factor, so when one team is significantly better in that department, it carries tons of weight. And while you and so many people seem to ignore this, the reality is that the "last half of the season" gets no more weight than the first half. A terrible February hurts OU, but no more than a terrible December would have hurt.