Bubble Watch catch all ..

Well, that’s that for today. Aggies and Hokies win, which is bad. SMU and Dayton lose, which is good. The overall development in the A10 tourney is good if Davidson wins.

Only drama tomorrow is rooting against Richmond. Personally, I think A+M is ahead of us now regardless, but just in case, I guess root against them as well.

At this point, the committee has us where they have us and probably not super likely to be altered by tomorrow’s results. My gut tells me we are first four out.
 
Well, that’s that for today. Aggies and Hokies win, which is bad. SMU and Dayton lose, which is good. The overall development in the A10 tourney is good if Davidson wins.

Only drama tomorrow is rooting against Richmond. Personally, I think A+M is ahead of us now regardless, but just in case, I guess root against them as well.

At this point, the committee has us where they have us and probably not super likely to be altered by tomorrow’s results. My gut tells me we are first four out.

Gotta believe skins!
 
In Lunardi's latest Bracketology, his last four "First Round Byes" are Miami, Iowa State, Rutgers, and Indiana. His "Last Four In" are Notre Dame, Michigan, Wyoming, and Texas A&M. His "First Four Out" are SMU, Xavier, Oklahoma, and Wake Forest. Finally, his "Next Four Out" are Dayton, BYU, Saint Louis, and VCU.

So, we obviously hope aTm loses today - and loses BIG. I'm not sure about his fascination for Rutgers, but he believes there are 4-5 schools behind them. I am pretty confident Miami, Iowa State and Indiana will have their names called today.

Notre Dame has an unimpressive resume, but they finished second in the ACC (beat the teams they were supposed to beat). They may get in just because of the ACC's reputation - deserved or not.

My best guess is we are competing with Rutgers, Michigan, Wyoming, aTm (if they lose), SMU, Xavier and WF - for four spots.
 
We took a hit in the Bracketmatrix as well. From being listed in 55/129 brackets down to 38/129. I just don’t have a good feeling. These Bracketology guys aren’t perfect, but there is a majority opinion that we are out. And Aggies losing is the ONLY thing that could potentially help us today— and that’s a long shot IMO (I think they will be ahead of us). Richmond could drop our odds further if they pull the upset.

Our best hope is that the majority are just wrong on teams like Wake, Xavier, Rutgers, Notre Dame and that the committee has had them slotted behind us since after we beat Baylor.

My final prediction today is that our name is not called and we find out we were one of the very last cuts. Whatever confidence I have will dip further if Aggies and/or Richmond win.
 
There’s no way Rutgers or Michigan deserve to get in ahead of OU. No way. Not by any metric.
 
A&M is getting blown out early. Mayb if they lose big it will knock them out? Or is 1pt loss the same as a 25pt loss?
 
You still feeling confident Boulder? Going by the metrics I don’t see any way some of these teams should be over us, unless they just go by record without taking anything else into account. But I just don’t get the feeling this many “experts” are going to be off that much. I don’t believe the A&M game matters either. I think they are already going to be in regardless.
 
A&M is in no matter what now after beating Auburn. That win alone is better than any win we have.
 
A&M is in no matter what now after beating Auburn. That win alone is better than any win we have.

Top 25 poll

#3 Baylor
#4 Auburn

Net

#4 Baylor
#12 Auburn

Kenpom

#4 Baylor
#10 Auburn
 
A&M is in no matter what now after beating Auburn. That win alone is better than any win we have.

That may have been true a month ago but definitely not now. Baylor is ahead of Auburn in every poll and by every metric.
 
Davidson is trying to knock us out. They need to close this out.
 
Davidson could have made this easier on our hearts if they hadn’t committed multiple fouls to give Richmond and-1 opportunities down the stretch.
 
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