Only one of those games was against a team with a pulse, and he graded as average. If we had Illinois St. on the schedule for every game, sure he's a Heisman winner, but we don't. His three best games were before injury, and still he wasn't good enough in those games is my point.
The injury should affect accuracy and being able to make every throw, it shouldn't affect his ability to be in command of this offense and make the right read. He's in the third year of this offense. There's no excuse for the mental mistakes he is making week in and week out.
QBR accounts for quality of competition, though I agree and completely throw out games like Illinois State as well. Too much difference for a stat to fully appreciate. His QBR against Michigan was 82.3, which isn't Heisman, but over the course of the season that would be top 10. That's absolutely good enough.
There is a lot that goes into playing QB, so when you're not getting reps and don't trust your hand, it's going to affect a lot more than just accuracy. He's never had great mechanics, but we saw it dramatically deteriorate and hit rock bottom in the first half against Tennessee. He has since settled down.
The data is pretty clear that in the 1 month post-surgery, we played 3 games, which included his 2 worst games. And not just his two worst games, but 20-30 points lower than his next worst, which is massive. Not coincidentally, those are the only two games we lost. His 3rd lowest QBR was actually the Auburn game, which he played most of with a broken hand.
The injury probably affects him to some extent, but we're at the point where he just needs to perform and push through. And to that end, his QBRs have improved from the 34.1 and 46.1 we saw against Texas and Ole Miss to consistently around 70 the past 3 weeks. That's not earth shattering, but we haven't lost a game when his QBR was above 50, so I'll take our chances against anybody if he's in the 70-80 range (other than Ohio State).
