You make good points, but I could probably make a LOOOONG list of guys who didn't get better. Again, its more, IMO, about what DID happen then what could have happened...
You think so? Let's see the list. Oh, and while you're at it, please compile a similar list for Coach Capel, Coach Tubbs, Coach Bliss, Coach McCleod and Coach Drake. Because I can assure you that college athletics are rife with players who, when viewed in retrospect, might be listed as disappointments. Heck, make a list for Bob Stoops, too, while you're at it.
While you're busy with that, let's look at some of the players who played under both Capel and Sampson.
David Godbold spent three years under Sampson and a season under Capel. If Sampson was so bad and Capel such a whiz at player development, we should see a huge jump in his senior-season contributions, right?
points: 129/166/230/268
steals: 20/26/41/39
turnovers: 32/36/36/39
assists: 29/41/54/54
rebounds: 70/93/144/139
Well, it turns out that Godbold's greatest improvement came under Coach Sampson, between his sophomore and junior years. That comes as no surprise to anyone except paid-in-full members of the ABS Club. That's the interval when a player's greatest improvement often occurs, that or between the junion and senior seasons -- under virtually any coach you can name.
But really, the improvement in his stats comes down primarily to minutes played:
points per minute: .30/.25/.27/.27
steals per minute: .05/.04/.05/.04
assists per minute: .07/.06/.06/.05
rebounds per minutes: .16/.14/.17/.14
Hang on to that thought; it'll reappear as we continue.
Longar Longar spent two years under Sampson and two under Capel:
points: 79/48/301/376
blocks: 17/12/41/33
steals: 7/2/10/8
turnovers: 17/10/70/87
rebounds: 50/43/206/186
If one wishes, one can give Capel the credit for Longar's improved output, but as was stated above, the light most often goes on for players between their sophomore and junior seasons, and it certainly did for Longar.
But, again, the biggest difference for Longar was simply minutes played.
points per minute: .37/.29/.39/.44
rebounds per minute: .23/.25/.27/.22
blocks per minute: .08/.07/.05/.04
So one could certainly argue that the primary factor in Longar Longar's improved stats was not the arrival of Coach Capel or even the departure of Coach Sampson, but the graduation of Kevin Bookout and Taj Grey.
Now, let's look at AJ. He played one season under Coach Sampson and three under Coach Capel.
points: 75/218/302/311
blocks: 8/15/15/28
steals: 21/26/39/47
assists: 45/87/95/140
rebounds: 49/57/95/108
Again, the biggest jump for AJ in most categories was between his sophomore and junior seasons. But let's see how playing time impacted that.
points per minute: .18/.30/.28/.28
blocks per minute: .05/.04/.04/.04
assists per minute: .11/.12/.09/.12
rebounds per minute: .11/.08/.09/.10
I could go on, but I think my point's effectively made: The primary factor in a player's statistical improvement -- or, at least, in the statistical improvement of the players on our roster when Capel arrived -- is maturity, seniority in the program, and the increase in minutes played that naturally occurs with each passing season. There were very few notable leaps in the per-minute stats cited above. The players in question just got more playing time as they matured and improved and older players above them graduated.
Now, I'm fully aware that those who insist on blaming Sampson for all of the ills we're enduring will not be swayed by the above information; their hatred runs too deep. But I do harbor a small hope that the facts presented above will make them squrim just a little before they reach for their cloaks of denial and put their heads back into the sand.