NBA Mock Drafts

[Smash Williams]

Actually I used that one because of the Kentucky love fest that goes on in the draft where guys that should not be drafted in the first round end up doing so.

2010
John Wall
DeMarcus Cousins
Patrick Patterson
Eric Bledsoe
Daniel Orton

2011
Brandon Knight
Enes Kanter

2012
Anthony Davis
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
Terrence Jones
Marquis Teague

2013
Nerlens Noel
Archie Goodwin

2014
Julius Randle
James Young

Out of the 15 Kentucky players drafted in the first round during Calipari's tenure...

-10 have proven themselves to be one of the top 30 players in their respective draft classes, without question

-2 washed out after being picked 29th (Orton, Teague)

-1 is a second-year player (also drafted 29th) struggling to get minutes on a team that had a loaded backcourt (Goodwin)

-2 are currently rookies, one of whom broke his leg in the season opener (Randle, Young)

Unless you want to declare James Young a complete bust after one season, at most three of UK's 15 first rounders should not have gone in the first round--in hindsight. All three of those guys were drafted 29th, so they barely even made it in the first round anyway. (The typical draft doesn't even produce 29 legitimate NBA players, but that's another matter)

As for Orton in particular, he was a late first round pick for the same reason that BJ Mullens and Fab Melo were: the bust ratio is so high at that point in the draft that teams love to take potentially high-reward gambles on unpolished big men who displayed enough raw talent to be 5-star recruits in high school. It had nothing to do with Kentucky.

Also, who were the players that were so clearly better than Orton at #29? There is Lance Stephenson, who dropped all the way to #40, and Hassan Whiteside, who bounced around the D-League, China, and Lebanon the last few years after being picked at #33.

 

[papaP]

ummm maybe b/c RJ and Dekker are both better players/have more potential. ARe you really trying to discredit draft express b/c they don't have buddy ahead of these two?

Not ahead of Sam but on par with RJ or do you think that they are that much better than Buddy and that the Big 12 conference is weaker the the Sun Belt.

 

[playmakr]

I'm more with Boca on Buddy's NBA potential. I think it's a lot higher than most of OU fans think. Or at least, what I read on this board.

 

[WTSooner]

Hold on you basically are saying what I just said

Some of the guys that turned heads at the LBJ and KD camp were Buddy, Sam Dekker and R.J. Hunter of all of them Buddy had the best regular season and Sam had the best tournament followed by Buddy.

How is it that draftexpress can have him rated so low with Sam and RJ in the first round? They even have Norman Powell higher even though Buddy dropped 24 on him in the Atlantis tournament.

I will be you $100 that if Buddy comes out this year, Dekker gets drafted before him.

 

[papaP]

I will be you $100 that if Buddy comes out this year, Dekker gets drafted before him.

I agree lol never said he was better than Sam

 

[papaP]

I will be you $100 that if Buddy comes out this year, Dekker gets drafted before him.

Agreed

 

[campbest]

Actually I used that one because of the Kentucky love fest that goes on in the draft where guys that should not be drafted in the first round end up doing so.

Do some research.

 

[papaP]

I'm more with Boca on Buddy's NBA potential. I think it's a lot higher than most of OU fans think. Or at least, what I read on this board.

I am in total agreement with that

 

[pnkranger]

Dekker's not the shooter Buddy is, or as quick, but he's 6'9", athletic, and moves very well. Better one on one player as well.

RJ Hunter is a better defender than Buddy, better passer, is more effective with the ball in his hand, and 6'6" to boot.

Norman Powell is a poor man's Buddy. Does nothing better than Buddy and shouldn't be drafted ahead of Buddy.

 

[papaP]

Dekker's not the shooter Buddy is, or as quick, but he's 6'9", athletic, and moves very well. Better one on one player as well.

RJ Hunter is a better defender than Buddy, better passer, is more effective with the ball in his hand, and 6'6" to boot.

Norman Powell is a poor man's Buddy. Does nothing better than Buddy and shouldn't be drafted ahead of Buddy.

Agree overall Sam is better than Buddy

RJ is a better dribbler..he plays point not a better defender nor shooter than Buddy and he is on the frail side I mean come on Buddy played in the Big 12 better defenders and players in the Sun Belt by far.

Norman Powell well he is strong and aggressive I agree a poor man's Buddy to some extent.

 

[Smash Williams]

I'm more with Boca on Buddy's NBA potential. I think it's a lot higher than most of OU fans think. Or at least, what I read on this board.

Exactly how high do you think it is?

With his length and athleticism, he can be a plus defender in the NBA, and being an above-average NBA 3-point shooter is within reason. I don't think he'll ever be a starter on a decent NBA team, but I could see him being a rotation player who comes off the bench for 15-20 minutes a night to defend 1s and 2s and hit open threes. To me, that's his ceiling rather than what I expect on average.

The problem is that in any given draft you can make a similar argument (i.e. he has NBA length/athleticism and maybe NBA skill 'X') for a number of prospects in that late first round to second round range. For those guys on the fringes, whether or not they stick (and how well they do if they stick) is so heavily dependent on the teams that draft them, in terms of a team's willingness and ability to develop them.

Getting waived by the Cavs may have been the best thing to ever happen to Danny Green. DeMarre Carroll was cut by the Rockets and the Nuggets, and he may end up making double what Green is making right now. Even if a player is good enough, it takes a bit of a luck to land in a situation in which he can prove it.

 

[papaP]

Exactly how high do you think it is?

With his length and athleticism, he can be a plus defender in the NBA, and being an above-average NBA 3-point shooter is within reason. I don't think he'll ever be a starter on a decent NBA team, but I could see him being a rotation player who comes off the bench for 15-20 minutes a night to defend 1s and 2s and hit open threes. To me, that's his ceiling rather than what I expect on average.

The problem is that in any given draft you can make a similar argument (i.e. he has NBA length/athleticism and maybe NBA skill 'X') for a number of prospects in that late first round to second round range. For those guys on the fringes, whether or not they stick (and how well they do if they stick) is so heavily dependent on the teams that draft them, in terms of a team's willingness and ability to develop them.

Getting waived by the Cavs may have been the best thing to ever happen to Danny Green. DeMarre Carroll was cut by the Rockets and the Nuggets, and he may end up making double what Green is making right now. Even if a player is good enough, it takes a bit of a luck to land in a situation in which he can prove it.

Good post Smash

 

[pnkranger]

I think Buddy has the chance to be a good rotation player/sixth man in the NBA. His athleticism is underrated, and he is a dead-eye shooter when he's open, which he will be in the NBA. He knows how to use space, which is also easier to come by in the NBA.

Anthony Morrow is a great comparison for Buddy IMO.

 

[Smash Williams]

I think Buddy has the chance to be a good rotation player/sixth man in the NBA. His athleticism is underrated, and he is a dead-eye shooter when he's open, which he will be in the NBA. He knows how to use space, which is also easier to come by in the NBA.

Anthony Morrow is a great comparison for Buddy IMO.

Buddy is a better athlete, but he's smaller and nowhere near as prolific of a shooter.

 

[WaymanFan]

While I don't think he'll be a 1st round pick in 2015, I'd like to believe we'll all be rooting for him to be drafted in Round 1 if he does decide to enter. We've had two players in the past who would have gone in Round 1, but stayed one extra year and went in Round 2 (Ryan Minor and Willie Warren). Therefore, if the reports come back favorable about being a 1st rounder, he should make the jump...but if the reports are not favorable, we'd obviously love to have him back.

 

[AdaSooner]

While I don't think he'll be a 1st round pick in 2015, I'd like to believe we'll all be rooting for him to be drafted in Round 1 if he does decide to enter. We've had two players in the past who would have gone in Round 1, but stayed one extra year and went in Round 2 (Ryan Minor and Willie Warren). Therefore, if the reports come back favorable about being a 1st rounder, he should make the jump...but if the reports are not favorable, we'd obviously love to have him back.

This, in spades!

WF, I don't believe any OU fan on this board will disagree with you. We may not agree on the round or how high he'll be drafted. But in the end we all want what's best for Buddy.

 

[sperry]

While I don't think he'll be a 1st round pick in 2015, I'd like to believe we'll all be rooting for him to be drafted in Round 1 if he does decide to enter. We've had two players in the past who would have gone in Round 1, but stayed one extra year and went in Round 2 (Ryan Minor and Willie Warren). Therefore, if the reports come back favorable about being a 1st rounder, he should make the jump...but if the reports are not favorable, we'd obviously love to have him back.

It's basically always correct to leave early if your'e a round 1 lock, unless you are just flat out not emotionally mature enough to handle being a professional.


Different story if you're going round 2, but it's still oftentimes going to be correct, and people act like it's crazy to leave if you're going to be a second rounder.

 

[WaymanFan]

Different story if you're going round 2, but it's still oftentimes going to be correct, and people act like it's crazy to leave if you're going to be a second rounder.

It's not necessarily crazy to make the jump early if you're going to be a 2nd rounder, but it's potentially a bad business decision if an extra year can dramatically improve one's draft stock. I honestly don't know enough about what pro scouts look for to know whether or not an extra year will help Buddy. I'm 99% certain he would not have been drafted at all if he was in the 2014 Draft, so staying his junior year got him a nice bump.

 

[papaP]

Gary Parrish @GaryParrishCBS · 5h 5 hours ago
… The overwhelming majority of American college players selected in the second round do actually get guaranteed money. Like 80% of them. ...

 

[SilliSooner]

It's not necessarily crazy to make the jump early if you're going to be a 2nd rounder, but it's potentially a bad business decision if an extra year can dramatically improve one's draft stock. I honestly don't know enough about what pro scouts look for to know whether or not an extra year will help Buddy. I'm 99% certain he would not have been drafted at all if he was in the 2014 Draft, so staying his junior year got him a nice bump.

That's the big question. Can he improve his draft stock? Can he improve it five spots? Will there be a bigger demand for shooting guards in the 2016 draft? It requires quite a bit of analysis.

I don't know if the Harrison twins declaring helps or hurts. The shooting guards in this years draft besides Buddy are RJ Hunter, Jerian Grant, Devin Booker, Justise Winslow, Mario Hezonja and perhaps Emmanual Mudiay might be considered a shooting guard. That's a bunch.

Hanging near the end of first round are shooting and combo guards like Norman Powell, Denzel Valentine, the Harrisons, Josh Richardson, Trevean Graham, Bryce Dejean-Jones.

It looks crowded in the SG spots but I don't known Buddy is better off next year. By the way, one of the shooting guards projected for 2016 - Alonzo Trier.