NCAA Seeding

[Zimwillett]

It looks to me that OU is very likely to get a #2, with an outside shot at a #1. Ordinarily, I would be concerned that a bad conference tournament showing could slip OU to the #3 line, but a loss to Iowa State would not be classified as "bad" and I don't really see enough teams currently in the 3/4 range having enough on their resumes to bump OU off the 2 line.

I definitely think there is still a path for OU to get a #1 seed. Right now, KU, Villanova, and Virginia appear to be pretty much locked in. According to bracketmatrix.com, OU is the last #1 seed. As I see it, the remaining competition for the final #1 is:

1. Michigan State: they are hot and extremely talented. If they show well in the B1G tournament, I couldn't argue with them as a #1. They do have a pretty weak SOS (and a #14 RPI as a result) a bad loss at home to Nebraska, and far fewer "good wins" than OU. They will get some leniency because they didn't have Valentine in one of their losses to Iowa.

2. North Carolina: I don't care what Lunardi says, UNC is not a #1 seed right now. They only have 3 wins vs. the RPI top 50 and their SOS is pretty marginal. They need to put a bunch more skins on the wall in the ACC tournament before they're even in consideration for a #1 seed. The committee has shown over and over that they care about good wins more than just about anything else. UNC just doesn't measure up in that category.

3. Oregon: This is an interesting team. They have a really strong SOS, a slew of good wins, and a lot of talent. They do have some bad losses (including to UNLV on a neutral floor). But in terms of pure resume, they have a much stronger case for a #1 seed than UNC.

4. Xavier: They've got a decent resume, but I don't think it's enough to get to a #1 even if they kill it in the Big East tournament.

I never try to overestimate what a conference tournament performance means in terms of seeding, but in this case, OU would obviously improve its chances at a #1 seed dramatically each round they are able to advance this weekend.

 

[geeoh]

I'm a bit more bullish on OU's chances to get a 1 seed. If we beat Iowa St this Thursday, I think it becomes a very good chance - you add another win over a Top 25 team to improve on an already strong resume metric-wise. I just don't see the resumes of Mich St, Xavier, UNC, or Oregon stacking up with ours. I'm not even sure I would necessarily have Villanova ahead of us considering our head-to-head win over them. Kansas and Virginia are the only 1 seed locks at this point.

 

[scrybe]

I'm a bit more bullish on OU's chances to get a 1 seed. If we beat Iowa St this Thursday, I think it becomes a very good chance - you add another win over a Top 25 team to improve on an already strong resume metric-wise. I just don't see the resumes of Mich St, Xavier, UNC, or Oregon stacking up with ours. I'm not even sure I would necessarily have Villanova ahead of us considering our head-to-head win over them. Kansas and Virginia are the only 1 seed locks at this point.

I pretty much agree with everything you stated. However, if we lose to the Cyclones in the first round, I'm afraid our 1-seed may slip away.

Lots of posters have said that a top seed isn't that important, but it is, at least for perception. And the higher your seed, the worse your opponent, at least in the first weekend.

 

[IndySooner]

I'm a bit more bullish on OU's chances to get a 1 seed. If we beat Iowa St this Thursday, I think it becomes a very good chance - you add another win over a Top 25 team to improve on an already strong resume metric-wise. I just don't see the resumes of Mich St, Xavier, UNC, or Oregon stacking up with ours. I'm not even sure I would necessarily have Villanova ahead of us considering our head-to-head win over them. Kansas and Virginia are the only 1 seed locks at this point.

I am as well. I pretty much see it the same way you do. I think Villanova is a lock, though, and UVA is a bit more tenuous. I think the last two 1's are between OU, MSU, UVA and Oregon.

I don't think there's any way we slip to a 3. None.

 

[Zimwillett]

I'm a bit more bullish on OU's chances to get a 1 seed. If we beat Iowa St this Thursday, I think it becomes a very good chance - you add another win over a Top 25 team to improve on an already strong resume metric-wise. I just don't see the resumes of Mich St, Xavier, UNC, or Oregon stacking up with ours. I'm not even sure I would necessarily have Villanova ahead of us considering our head-to-head win over them. Kansas and Virginia are the only 1 seed locks at this point.

The closer I look at Nova's resume, I agree. They are especially deficient in top 25 wins (1-3 including a blow out head-to-head to OU on a neutral floor). OU currently has 6 wins vs. RPI top 25 with an opportunity to grab a few more.

Take a closer look at Oregon's resume. Other than a few questionable losses, they have a competitive resume. The one that baffles me the most is North Carolina. Sure, they show up strong in some metrics (BPI #1, Kenpom #5), but at the end of the day, they just don't have a lot of really good wins. Unless the committee completely changes its criteria this season, I don't see them getting a #1 seed.

 

[IndySooner]

The closer I look at Nova's resume, I agree. They are especially deficient in top 25 wins (1-3 including a blow out head-to-head to OU on a neutral floor). OU currently has 6 wins vs. RPI top 25 with an opportunity to grab a few more.

Take a closer look at Oregon's resume. Other than a few questionable losses, they have a competitive resume. The one that baffles me the most is North Carolina. Sure, they show up strong in some metrics (BPI #1, Kenpom #5), but at the end of the day, they just don't have a lot of really good wins. Unless the committee completely changes its criteria this season, I don't see them getting a #1 seed.

Agreed. UNC is not getting a 1 seed. If they do, it's a joke.

 

[Sooner-Bred]

OU's chances for a 1 seed look pretty good IMO.

Win on thursday, and I think it's even better. Win thursday AND friday, I have to think it's a lock.

 

[califca]

OU's chances for a 1 seed look pretty good IMO.

Win on thursday, and I think it's even better. Win thursday AND friday, I have to think it's a lock.

If OU can make it to the Tourney Final hopefully against Kansas I believe they are a lock win or lose that game. You would have beaten a Top 20 team in Iowa State and a Top 10 team in West Virginia. Then you possibly get the No1 team in the country in the final. Know body in the country is going thru that gauntlet.

 

[Larry72]

I have seen MSU 3 times recently. They are quite a bit better than last year and Valentine has been the best player in the country for the last 10 games. They play great D and have a lot of offensive weapons as well. If OU played them now it would not be a very close game.

 

[skyvue]

I have seen MSU 3 times recently. They are quite a bit better than last year and Valentine has been the best player in the country for the last 10 games. They play great D and have a lot of offensive weapons as well. If OU played them now it would not be a very close game.

Who did you see them play?

 

[tsou89]

I have seen MSU 3 times recently. They are quite a bit better than last year and Valentine has been the best player in the country for the last 10 games. They play great D and have a lot of offensive weapons as well. If OU played them now it would not be a very close game.

I'm not sure we couldn't hang with MSU. However, this is one team I've wanted to stay away from in the tournament all season…even when they weren't as hot as they are now. That team always seems ready to play come tournament time!