NCAA Statistical Plus/Minus 2008-2009

[DSMok1]

For all you stat geeks, I have completed the application of the statistical plus/minus formula to the NCAA stats from last year. What does this do? It provides perhaps the best look at who the best players actually were from last year. Or more, what players actually helped the most.

"Statistical Plus/Minus" attempts to derive what a player's adjusted plus/minus was from the box score stats. It is less noisy than the APM itself, but does miss somewhat on some player's defensive contributions. In the NCAA, stellar players from secondary conferences can be a little overrated (though this actually is measuring their production--they produced a lot against their weak foes).

This thread discusses this work over at the APBRmetrics forum: http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2368

Basically, I took the NBA formula and used it for college, and then applied the appropriate adjustment factor to account for strength of schedule.

The top players from last year by 95% confidence level (the level above which we can be 95% confident they were--this combines actual production with minutes played.):

1	Stephen Curry
2	DeJuan Blair
3	Ty Lawson
4	Blake Griffin
5	Lester Hudson
6	Terrence Williams
7	James Harden
8	Toney Douglas
9	Eric Maynor
10	Danny Green
11	Tony Gaffney
12	Talor Battle
13	Kenneth Faried
14	Nick Calathes
15	Gordon Hayward
16	Jermaine Taylor
17	Tywain McKee
18	Kevin Palmer
19	Manny Harris
20	Jared Quayle
21	Taj Gibson
22	Evan Turner
23	Kyle Singler
24	Robbie Hummel
25	Marqus Blakely

And for anyone interested, here are the top returning players in the Big XII, by 95% confidence level again:

1	Cole Aldrich	Kansas
2	Cory Higgins	Colorado
3	Damion James	Texas
4	James Anderson	Oklahoma St.
5	B.J. Holmes	Texas A&M
6	J.T. Tiller	Missouri
7	Sherron Collins	Kansas
8	Ryan Anderson	Nebraska
9	Craig Brackins	Iowa St.
10	Jamar Samuels	Kansas St.
11	Brady Morningst	Kansas
12	LaceDarius Dunn	Baylor
13	Zaire Taylor	Missouri
14	Willie Warren	Oklahoma
15	Tweety Carter	Baylor
16	Jacob Pullen	Kansas St.
17	John Roberson	Texas Tech
18	Obi Muonelo	Oklahoma St.
19	Justin Mason	Texas
20	Dexter Pittman	Texas
21	Ron Anderson	Kansas St.
22	Bryan Davis	Texas A&M
23	Donald Sloan	Texas A&M
24	Marcus Morris	Kansas
25	Mike Singletary	Texas Tech

Oddly enough, Willie isn't showing up very well... according to these stats, he was 4th on the team last year.

He was a freshman, though, and the freshman-sophomore transition should bump his results quite a bit.

Look at the full Google Spreadsheet if you'd like. There are tons of things you can do with it.

Likely breakout players:
BJ Holmes
Jamar Samuels
Dexter Pittman
Jamie Vanderbeken
Keith Ramsey
Laurence Bowers

 

[HoHum]

As a big time baseballprospectus/sabermetrics nerd, I really enjoy this kind of stuff. Thanks a lot.

 

[Sooner23]

Can you give us the OU rankings from last year? BTW, good stuff.

 

[Mr.B!!!]

Interesting work; but the fact is that every single coach in America would have given their left testicle to have Blake Griffin on their team ahead of Curry, Blair or Lawson IMHO and there is not a coach in the conference that would take Cory Higgins over Willie Warren. That is the problem with statistical analysis like this, and frankly, one of the reasons I don't like it in the NBA either.

Again, not trying to rip wth obvious work you put into this or flame you personally.

 

[DSMok1]

Interesting work; but the fact is that every single coach in America would have given their left testicle to have Blake Griffin on their team ahead of Curry, Blair or Lawson IMHO and there is not a coach in the conference that would take Cory Higgins over Willie Warren. That is the problem with statistical analysis like this, and frankly, one of the reasons I don't like it in the NBA either.

Again, not trying to rip wth obvious work you put into this or flame you personally.

Yes, the issue with this is that it also depends on opportunity. Because WW wasn't option A on the team, he simply didn't accumulate as many stats.... though I am not as high on WW as most. He wasn't very efficient last year. We'll see if he can take advantage of his new role this year.

 

[sys]

dsmok1, this is simply fantastic.

 

[thebigabd]

there is not a coach in the conference that would take Cory Higgins over Willie Warren.

Higgins vs. Warren is the matchup of the year in the Big 12. Higgins outplayed Willie in every way last year in Norman, and Warren will get another chance to face him in Boulder this year.

Willie had 5 points, 4 turnovers, and 2 rebounds last year in his matchup with Higgins. Higgins went for 20 points and 3 rebounds and had his team within 3 of the best team in the Big 12 in the final minute.

Tony Crocker came through with 7 three pointers to hold off the Buffalo comeback...

Highlights can be found here:
http://www.cubuffs.com/mediaPortal/...DB_MENU_ID=&SPSID=3888&SPID=257&DB_OEM_ID=600

 

[Mr.B!!!]

So you'd take him over Warren?

 

[BigTime]

Thanks dsmok. Good stuff.

 

[sys]

not to be lazy, but could you post an expanded list of big 12 returners? maybe the top 60 or top 86 or something like that.

 

[DSMok1]

not to be lazy, but could you post an expanded list of big 12 returners? maybe the top 60 or top 86 or something like that.

Could somebody else? It's easy to sort the Google Spreadsheet, and my internet here at work is about as fast as cold molasses...

Interesting work; but the fact is that every single coach in America would have given their left testicle to have Blake Griffin on their team ahead of Curry, Blair or Lawson IMHO and there is not a coach in the conference that would take Cory Higgins over Willie Warren. That is the problem with statistical analysis like this, and frankly, one of the reasons I don't like it in the NBA either.

Again, not trying to rip wth obvious work you put into this or flame you personally.

Thinking more about this... honestly, I think this is a pretty good measure of a player's performance. In other words, if OU had had Higgins last year instead of WW, they would have probably been better. That said, each player's SPM has an associated standard error--a possible spread for that player's actual plus/minus (because the statistics don't tell everything). Read http://82games.com/comm30.htm for the full discussion of both Adjusted +/- and Statistical +/-. Basically, the standard error is a little wider than the stats themselves would imply simply to account for the likelihood that some of a player's contributions are not measured in the box score.

If you look at Higgins' rating and standard error, you can see that there actually isn't total confidence that Higgins was better than WW.

Higgins: 7.05 with a stderr of 3.0. WW: 4.08 with a stderr of 3.0. So the confidence that Higgins was better than WW is normsdist((7-4)/(3))=84%.

BTW.... Curry carried his team; Lawson won the title, Blair was dominant. I would loved to have seen Blake vs. Blair!! And I'm not sure Curry didn't do the most last year.

 

[DSMok1]

not to be lazy, but could you post an expanded list of big 12 returners? maybe the top 60 or top 86 or something like that.

Here is the total list of everybody, returning or not:

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
DeMarre Carroll		1064	8.77	3.05	233.2	3.8
Leo Lyons		861	6.26	3.31	134.7	0.8
J.T. Tiller		943	5.74	3.19	135.4	0.5
Zaire Taylor		1002	4.80	3.12	120.3	-0.3
Matt Lawrence		791	3.84	3.42	75.8	-1.8
Keith Ramsey		519	3.37	4.04	43.7	-3.3
Marcus Denmon		636	1.22	3.72	19.4	-4.9
Justin Safford		358	1.79	4.71	16.0	-6.0
Laurence Bowers		215	3.56	5.86	19.2	-6.1
Kim English		547	-0.94	3.96	-12.8	-7.4
Miguel Paul		434	-3.68	4.35	-39.9	-10.8
Steve Moore		87	-2.58	8.79	-5.6	-17.0
Michael Anderson Jr.	117	-5.92	7.68	-17.3	-18.6
Jarrett Sutton		26	2.60	15.46	1.7	-22.8

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Cole Aldrich		1037	8.77	3.08	227.3	3.7
Sherron Collins		1229	5.27	2.89	161.8	0.5
Brady Morningstar	1063	4.81	3.05	127.9	-0.2
Marcus Morris		646	3.79	3.70	61.3	-2.3
Tyshawn Taylor		928	2.31	3.21	53.7	-3.0
Tyrel Reed		724	1.94	3.54	35.0	-3.9
Markieff Morris		547	1.48	3.96	20.2	-5.0
Mario Little		288	1.22	5.17	8.8	-7.3
Travis Releford		225	-4.82	5.75	-27.1	-14.3
Quintrell Thomas	140	-6.18	7.09	-21.6	-17.8
Conner Teahan		81	-4.96	9.08	-10.1	-19.9
Tyrone Appleton		47	-9.67	11.69	-11.4	-28.9
Matt Kleinmann		36	-10.34	13.25	-9.3	-32.1
Brennan Bechard		16	-10.60	19.50	-4.2	-42.7
Chase Buford		13	-16.40	21.55	-5.3	-51.8
Jordan Juenemann	5	-29.73	34.29	-3.7	-86.1

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Blake Griffin		1165	11.70	2.95	340.7	6.9
Austin Johnson		1125	5.01	2.99	140.9	0.1
Taylor Griffin		1081	4.50	3.03	121.5	-0.5
Willie Warren		1128	4.08	2.98	115.0	-0.8
Tony Crocker		1040	1.39	3.08	36.2	-3.7
Cade Davis		510	2.30	4.07	29.3	-4.4
Omar Leary		342	-3.11	4.81	-26.6	-11.0
Juan Pattillo		270	-4.53	5.31	-30.6	-13.3
Ryan Wright		260	-6.13	5.40	-39.8	-15.0
Ray Willis		103	-4.49	8.14	-11.6	-17.9
Kyle Cannon		61	-5.50	10.35	-8.4	-22.5
Orlando Allen		87	-8.18	8.79	-17.8	-22.6
Beau Gerber		26	-3.96	15.46	-2.6	-29.4
T.J. Franklin		27	-24.00	15.18	-16.2	-49.0

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Damion James		1034	6.88	3.08	177.8	1.8
A.J. Abrams		1319	5.57	2.82	183.8	0.9
Justin Mason		1050	3.84	3.06	100.9	-1.2
Dexter Pittman		580	5.09	3.86	73.7	-1.3
Connor Atchley		619	3.30	3.76	51.1	-2.9
Dogus Balbay		719	1.80	3.55	32.3	-4.0
Gary Johnson		739	-1.00	3.51	-18.5	-6.8
Varez Ward		484	-1.65	4.16	-19.9	-8.5
Clint Chapman		257	-6.06	5.43	-38.9	-15.0
Harrison Smith		101	-2.52	8.21	-6.4	-16.0
Matt Hill		123	-13.72	7.51	-42.2	-26.1
Alexis Wangmene		25	-10.23	15.75	-6.4	-36.1

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Byron Eaton		1110	7.07	3.00	196.3	2.1
Terrel Harris		1110	6.29	3.00	174.5	1.4
James Anderson		1171	6.04	2.94	176.9	1.2
Obi Muonelo		1053	3.93	3.06	103.5	-1.1
Keiton Page		929	0.10	3.21	2.4	-5.2
Marshall Moses		623	-2.69	3.75	-41.9	-8.9
Anthony Brown		436	-2.46	4.34	-26.8	-9.6
Ibrahima Thomas		144	-3.18	7.00	-11.4	-14.7
Nick Sidorakis		216	-5.49	5.85	-29.6	-15.1
Malcoln Kirkland	222	-11.30	5.78	-62.7	-20.8
Teeng Akol		22	-4.48	16.74	-2.5	-32.0
Scott Warner		5	8.54	34.29	1.1	-47.9
Blaine Booher		6	-8.97	31.37	-1.3	-60.6
Garrett Thomas		5	-7.65	34.29	-1.0	-64.1
Greg Hughes		1	7.87	75.75	0.2	-116.7
Nolan Cox		1	-10.37	75.75	-0.3	-135.0

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Curtis Jerrells		1351	6.93	2.79	234.1	2.3
LaceDarius Dunn		1119	4.70	2.99	131.6	-0.2
Tweety Carter		1196	4.06	2.92	121.4	-0.7
Henry Dugat		1112	2.37	3.00	65.8	-2.6
Kevin Rogers		1285	0.82	2.84	26.3	-3.9
Quincy Acy		558	0.96	3.93	13.4	-5.5
Mamadou Diene		369	-2.60	4.65	-24.0	-10.3
Josh Lomers		367	-4.48	4.66	-41.1	-12.2
Fred Ellis		182	-2.63	6.31	-12.0	-13.0
Anthony Jones		231	-3.72	5.68	-21.5	-13.1
Kendall Wright		25	6.59	15.75	4.1	-19.3
Delbert Simpson		31	-7.03	14.22	-5.5	-30.4

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Jamar Samuels		698	6.14	3.59	107.2	0.2
Jacob Pullen		1027	4.27	3.09	109.7	-0.8
Ron Anderson		638	4.45	3.72	71.0	-1.7
Dominique Sutton	779	2.19	3.44	42.6	-3.5
Denis Clemente		952	1.73	3.18	41.1	-3.5
Darren Kent		781	1.44	3.43	28.2	-4.2
Luis Colon		618	0.02	3.77	0.3	-6.2
Fred Brown		695	-0.42	3.59	-7.3	-6.3
Buchi Awaji		269	2.17	5.32	14.6	-6.6
Chris Merriewether	256	-3.01	5.44	-19.2	-12.0
Justin Werner		86	-5.37	8.84	-11.6	-19.9
Victor Ojeleye		58	-6.36	10.60	-9.2	-23.8
Abdul Herrera		18	2.76	18.43	1.2	-27.5

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Josh Carter		1041	8.03	3.07	209.0	3.0
B.J. Holmes		757	6.46	3.48	122.3	0.7
Bryan Davis		907	3.54	3.24	80.4	-1.8
Donald Sloan		1030	3.07	3.09	79.0	-2.0
Chinemelu Elonu		810	2.28	3.39	46.2	-3.3
Nathan Walkup		428	-0.05	4.38	-0.5	-7.2
Derrick Roland		830	-2.14	3.35	-44.4	-7.7
Dash Harris		448	-3.43	4.29	-38.5	-10.5
David Loubeau		460	-3.62	4.25	-41.6	-10.6
Denzel Bowles		49	-9.91	11.46	-12.1	-28.8
Andrew Darko		21	-15.06	17.12	-7.9	-43.2
Derrek Lewis		15	-13.23	20.11	-5.0	-46.3
Shawn Schepel		9	-8.38	25.75	-1.9	-50.7
Chris Chapman		4	11.71	38.25	1.2	-51.2
Bryson Graham		8	-15.64	27.27	-3.1	-60.5
Marshall Carrell	5	-35.91	34.29	-4.5	-92.3
James Blasczyk		2	-10.36	53.78	-0.5	-98.8

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Ryan Anderson		720	6.31	3.55	113.6	0.5
Ade Dagunduro		800	5.37	3.40	107.5	-0.2
Sek Henry		787	2.76	3.42	54.2	-2.9
Cookie Miller		856	2.33	3.31	49.8	-3.1
Paul Velander		717	1.46	3.55	26.3	-4.4
Steve Harley		937	0.85	3.20	19.9	-4.4
Brandon Richardson	414	2.13	4.44	22.0	-5.2
Toney McCray		492	-1.68	4.13	-20.6	-8.5
Chris Balham		273	-8.55	5.29	-58.3	-17.2
Cole Salomon		61	-5.99	10.35	-9.1	-23.0
Alonzo Edwards		70	-12.04	9.71	-21.1	-28.0
Eshaunte Jones		46	-13.05	11.81	-15.0	-32.5
Ben Nelson		23	-8.19	16.39	-4.7	-35.1
Nick Krenk		29	-17.57	14.68	-12.7	-41.7

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Alan Voskuil		1176	6.56	2.94	192.9	1.7
John Roberson		1160	3.88	2.95	112.5	-1.0
Mike Singletary		763	3.25	3.47	62.1	-2.4
Michael Prince		418	2.42	4.42	25.3	-4.8
Nick Okorie		733	0.57	3.52	10.5	-5.2
D'Walyn Roberts		545	-1.04	3.96	-14.1	-7.6
Robert Lewandowski	507	-1.73	4.08	-21.9	-8.4
Trevor Cook		196	0.75	6.11	3.7	-9.3
Wally Dunn		44	7.05	12.06	7.8	-12.8
Esmir Rizvic		131	-3.59	7.30	-11.7	-15.6
Darko Cohadarevic	280	-7.63	5.23	-53.4	-16.2
Tyree Graham		186	-6.85	6.25	-31.9	-17.1
Corbin Ray		97	-3.48	8.37	-8.4	-17.2
Damir Suljagic		204	-8.42	6.00	-42.9	-18.3
Rogdrick Craig		161	-9.54	6.66	-38.4	-20.5

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Craig Brackins		1041	5.61	3.07	145.9	0.6
Bryan Petersen		963	4.00	3.17	96.2	-1.2
Jamie Vanderbeken	469	3.86	4.21	45.2	-3.1
Diante Garrett		1054	0.61	3.06	16.0	-4.4
Lucca Staiger		768	-0.92	3.46	-17.7	-6.6
Charles Boozer		188	2.63	6.22	12.4	-7.6
Sean Haluska		501	-1.78	4.10	-22.3	-8.5
Alex Thompson		436	-2.38	4.34	-26.0	-9.5
Justin Hamilton		438	-3.48	4.33	-38.1	-10.6
Wes Eikmeier		293	-6.79	5.13	-49.8	-15.2
Cameron Lee		67	-0.70	9.91	-1.2	-17.0
Dominique Buckley	164	-8.85	6.61	-36.3	-19.7
Clinton Mann		43	-10.01	12.19	-10.8	-30.1

Name			Min	Stat+/-	SE	Contrib	95% Conf
Cory Higgins		1146	7.05	2.97	202.0	2.2
Dwight Thorne II	1035	1.98	3.08	51.2	-3.1
Jermyl Jackson-Wilson	637	0.23	3.72	3.7	-5.9
Casey Crawford		355	1.29	4.73	11.5	-6.5
Nate Tomlinson		941	-1.73	3.19	-40.8	-7.0
Austin Dufault		953	-3.28	3.18	-78.2	-8.5
Levi Knutson		476	-4.40	4.19	-52.4	-11.3
Trey Eckloff		263	-6.48	5.37	-42.6	-15.3
Javon Coney		202	-6.53	6.03	-33.0	-16.4
Ryan Kelley		94	-3.93	8.49	-9.2	-17.9
Toby Veal		125	-6.02	7.46	-18.8	-18.3
Andrew Zehnder		46	-3.84	11.81	-4.4	-23.3
Matt Favaro		2	21.17	53.78	1.1	-67.3

The columns: minutes played, statistical +/- (the point margin per 40 minutes of average-pace play that the player contributed), the standard error of that estimate, the total contribution (statistical +/- times minutes), and the 95% confidence level of the player (statistical +/- minus 1.65*SE).

 

[sys]

nice. thanks!