I'm going to say under. Actually, 23 isn't a bad number itself, but I think 23 or under is more likely than 23 or over.
Good draw in the Dance could change that, but I have them winning once there right now. We seem to struggle away from home, and that is never a good sign when trying to predict tourney success.
Sitting at 17 right now, I'd say we find a way to win 3-4 of our last 5. That puts us at 20-21. I think we probably win 1 in the Big 12 Tourney. Puts us at 21-22 wins. And I'm predicting 1 win in the Dance, which would put us at 22-23.
So to top 23, we're going to have win 4 our last 5, and win 2 game in either the Big 12 Tourney or the Dance, and one in the other.
Under.
Edit: Something to keep in mind about the Big 12 Tourney seeding. If we are the 2/3 seed, we are probably getting ISU in our second game. If we fall to 4/5, we get KU in the second game. Definitely not a given that we win two in the Big 12 Tourney. Going to be tough to do that.