Recruiting Success Rates

[thebigabd]

I am trying to be 100% fair here... Not trying to be biased. Simply a look at the amount of guys that are signed that don't/can't play.

Kelvin Sampson - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2002 - Kevin Bookout and Larry Turner
2003 - Brandon Foust/Drew Lavender/LMack/Jaison Williams/Jimmy Tobias
2004 - Taj Gray/Longar Longar/Terrell Everett
2005 - Austin Johnson/Mike Neal/Tony Crocker/Taylor Griffin/Chris Walker

15 players total. 12 were more than capable of playing at OU. Tobias, Walker, and Turner being the exceptions.

81% success rate.

Lon Kruger - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2015 - Manyang, Freeman, Christian James, Rashard Odomes
2016 - Darrion Strong, Kam McGusty, Doolittle, Shepherd
2017 - Hannes Polla, Brady Manek, Trae Young, Ty Lazenby
2018 - Jamal Bienemy, Kur Kuath

14 players total. 8 were more than capable of playing at OU. I am counting Kuath as a "can". Freeman, Polla, Manyang, Strong, Ty, and Shepherd are on the cut list.

57% success rate. If Kuath isn't good enough for OU it will go to 50%. I suspect Kuath will be pretty solid though. He's an insane athlete who got an extra year of coaching if he was able to practice at all.

Is this fair and accurate?

 

[sheepdogs1]

I am trying to be 100% fair here... Not trying to be biased. Simply a look at the amount of guys that are signed that don't/can't play.

Kelvin Sampson - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2002 - Kevin Bookout and Larry Turner
2003 - Brandon Foust/Drew Lavender/LMack/Jaison Williams/Jimmy Tobias
2004 - Taj Gray/Longar Longar/Terrell Everett
2005 - Austin Johnson/Mike Neal/Tony Crocker/Taylor Griffin/Chris Walker

15 players total. 12 were more than capable of playing at OU. Tobias, Walker, and Turner being the exceptions.

81% success rate.

Lon Kruger - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2015 - Manyang, Freeman, Christian James, Rashard Odomes
2016 - Darrion Strong, Kam McGusty, Doolittle, Shepherd
2017 - Hannes Polla, Brady Manek, Trae Young, Ty Lazenby
2018 - Jamal Bienemy, Kur Kuath

14 players total. 8 were more than capable of playing at OU. I am counting Kuath as a "can". Freeman, Polla, Manyang, Strong, Ty, and Shepherd are on the cut list.

57% success rate. If Kuath isn't good enough for OU it will go to 50%. I suspect Kuath will be pretty solid though. He's an insane athlete who got an extra year of coaching if he was able to practice at all.

Is this fair and accurate?

Be prepared to engage in projectile ducking.

 

[oudna]

Wouldn’t it be easier to just look at their W-L record?

 

[BCSooners]

Kelvin definitely “missed” less often I agree.

 

[soonertravis]

I am trying to be 100% fair here... Not trying to be biased. Simply a look at the amount of guys that are signed that don't/can't play.

Kelvin Sampson - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2002 - Kevin Bookout and Larry Turner
2003 - Brandon Foust/Drew Lavender/LMack/Jaison Williams/Jimmy Tobias
2004 - Taj Gray/Longar Longar/Terrell Everett
2005 - Austin Johnson/Mike Neal/Tony Crocker/Taylor Griffin/Chris Walker

15 players total. 12 were more than capable of playing at OU. Tobias, Walker, and Turner being the exceptions.

81% success rate.

Lon Kruger - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2015 - Manyang, Freeman, Christian James, Rashard Odomes
2016 - Darrion Strong, Kam McGusty, Doolittle, Shepherd
2017 - Hannes Polla, Brady Manek, Trae Young, Ty Lazenby
2018 - Jamal Bienemy, Kur Kuath

14 players total. 8 were more than capable of playing at OU. I am counting Kuath as a "can". Freeman, Polla, Manyang, Strong, Ty, and Shepherd are on the cut list.

57% success rate. If Kuath isn't good enough for OU it will go to 50%. I suspect Kuath will be pretty solid though. He's an insane athlete who got an extra year of coaching if he was able to practice at all.

Is this fair and accurate?

How many of those guys from the Sampson era stayed at OU for their entire career? There is a difference between can play at OU and did play at OU.

 

[WTSooner]

How many of those guys from the Sampson era stayed at OU for their entire career? There is a difference between can play at OU and did play at OU.

Transfer number looks about the same from that list to me.

 

[skyvue]

Is this fair and accurate?

I would say it's premature to dismiss Shepherd. He played two years for OU, behind a senior PG in Woodard and then TY, and averaged 14 minutes per game played. His stats weren't great, but it remains to be seen what he delivers as a junior and senior at UNC Charlotte.

Similarly, one might wonder how it would have gone for Darrion Strong-Moore if he'd remained at OU. His stats last year at Arkansas-Fort Worth were good enough that if he'd started there and if UAFS was a junior college, you'd likely have been chastising Coach Kruger for not bringing him in as a transfer.

Compare their stats to Brandon Foust, who made your cut under Kelvin, and you'll see they're not so drastically different. Foust had a higher shooting percentage, but he would, playing in the paint.

Again, I'm not saying Shepherd or Strong-Moore ever would have played a key role at OU, but we can't know that they wouldn't have, not yet. And Foust is not much, if any, more deserving of a pass than they are.

 

[skyvue]

And while we're at it, Calixte and Reynolds, much as they come in for criticism, match up just fine with Foust, statistically speaking, too. You left them off your list entirely.

 

[Zimwillett]

I am trying to be 100% fair here... Not trying to be biased. Simply a look at the amount of guys that are signed that don't/can't play.

Kelvin Sampson - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2002 - Kevin Bookout and Larry Turner
2003 - Brandon Foust/Drew Lavender/LMack/Jaison Williams/Jimmy Tobias
2004 - Taj Gray/Longar Longar/Terrell Everett
2005 - Austin Johnson/Mike Neal/Tony Crocker/Taylor Griffin/Chris Walker

15 players total. 12 were more than capable of playing at OU. Tobias, Walker, and Turner being the exceptions.

81% success rate.

Lon Kruger - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2015 - Manyang, Freeman, Christian James, Rashard Odomes
2016 - Darrion Strong, Kam McGusty, Doolittle, Shepherd
2017 - Hannes Polla, Brady Manek, Trae Young, Ty Lazenby
2018 - Jamal Bienemy, Kur Kuath

14 players total. 8 were more than capable of playing at OU. I am counting Kuath as a "can". Freeman, Polla, Manyang, Strong, Ty, and Shepherd are on the cut list.

57% success rate. If Kuath isn't good enough for OU it will go to 50%. I suspect Kuath will be pretty solid though. He's an insane athlete who got an extra year of coaching if he was able to practice at all.

Is this fair and accurate?

I think that's mostly fair. I could quibble a little about Manyang. From what I saw, I'd say he was "capable" of playing at OU. He just wound up with a super weird flame out.

He did wind up at Utah Valley St. in 2017-18 where he averaged a little over 13 points and 8 rebounds. Not saying he would have done anything close to that at OU, but the dude was definitely capable of playing Division 1 basketball.

 

[jaymOU]

I feel like Kelvin has a more structure to his recruiting, just like he had to his coaching, thus giving him a greater percentage of serviceable players - because he recruits a certain type of player.

Lon seems to prefer recruiting more projects. If you think about recruiting talent - I think Lon has 2 NBA players (Buddy and Trae) and a fringe NBA guy in Cousins. So 3 NBA level talent guys.

Just another way of looking at it, although obviously I am going outside the 4-year window shown above. I may be missing some NBA-level talent guys for Kelvin, but I can't remember any of them.

 

[thebigabd]

Sky.... sounds like outside of a quibble here and there that you generally agree. But Foust did play 15 minutes per game as a freshman... Was the #73 player in the class, and was a Jordan Brand All-American coming out of high school.

• He had 11/5 against UT in the Big 12 Tournament
• Had 19 points against LSU
• Averaged 12ppg over his last 3 games at OU as a freshman
• Had 23 points and 9 rebounds against Murray State
• Had 15 points and 12 rebounds against Austin Peay
• 12 points against Arkansas

He was a complete idiot though... Got kicked off the OU team, had trouble in high school, and also got kicked off the team at SEMO I think after he transferred out.

He was a D1 basketball player though. The guys I exclude like Larry Turner, Hannes Polla, Ty Lazenby, Chris Walker, etc can't even contribute in a game.

 

[thegreyghost]

Whats your point, OU is a cyclical school they go to the final 4 about every 15 years and have some other NCAA Tourney success on occasion; sweet 16 final 8 with probably their 3 best coaches (Billy, Kelvin, Lon) of the modern era.

All 3 had to recruit to half empty arenas and a terrible gameday atmosphere except for a few out of conference and rivalry games.

They have all landed players that were outstanding and others that did not pan out

There NCAA tournament success is about equal.

 

[WTSooner]

I feel like Kelvin has a more structure to his recruiting, just like he had to his coaching, thus giving him a greater percentage of serviceable players - because he recruits a certain type of player.

Lon seems to prefer recruiting more projects. If you think about recruiting talent - I think Lon has 2 NBA players (Buddy and Trae) and a fringe NBA guy in Cousins. So 3 NBA level talent guys.

Just another way of looking at it, although obviously I am going outside the 4-year window shown above. I may be missing some NBA-level talent guys for Kelvin, but I can't remember any of them.

Eduardo Najera? lol

Hump played some NBA. Kelvin recruited a lot of guys that would/could be great college players, but didn't really translate to the NBA. Guys like Hollis. Or Ere. Or Ace. Or Erdmann. Or Brewer. Those guys were fantastic college players, but for the most part, didn't have the bodies for the NBA.

 

[thebigabd]

Whats your point, OU is a cyclical school they go to the final 4 about every 15 years and have some other NCAA Tourney success on occasion; sweet 16 final 8 with probably their 3 best coaches (Billy, Kelvin, Lon) of the modern era.

All 3 had to recruit to half empty arenas and a terrible gameday atmosphere except for a few out of conference and rivalry games.

They have all landed players that were outstanding and others that did not pan out

There NCAA tournament success is about equal.

The point is... Kelvin regularly competed for Big 12 Regular Season and Big 12 Tournament Championships and Lon Kruger has the worst record in the Big 12 and is .500 overall in the league. When 81% of Sampsons recruits are Big 12-capable players and 55% of Krugers are, you see one of the problems.

 

[skyvue]

Sky.... sounds like outside of a quibble here and there that you generally agree.

I have no idea how you got that out of what I wrote. Read my posts again. I mentioned four Kruger players that you gave short shrift to (if you are going to include Foust). I don't care about Foust's high-school hype -- at OU, he didn't perform much (or any) better than the four players I mentioned.

Leave Foust on your list, if you wish, but if you do, then add the four I mentioned to Kruger's credit and you've got a very even comparison.

 

[Swans]

I’m really liking Kelvin’s last class with Scottie Reynolds, Damion James and Jeremy Mayfield myself. Oh sure, go ahead and say it’s irrelevant......but they were the 4th ranked class at the time.

 

[thebigabd]

I have no idea how you got that out of what I wrote.

Sometimes I wonder if I made a thread about how I noticed the sky was blue, if you would agree or not.

I would say it's premature to dismiss Shepherd.

Ok we will count him later once we do know.

And while we're at it, Calixte and Reynolds, much as they come in for criticism, match up just fine with Foust, statistically speaking, too. You left them off your list entirely.

I would count Calixte, but not Reynolds. But again, I was comparing signed recruits during the recruiting period... Not one year grad-transfer rentals.

Similarly, one might wonder how it would have gone for Darrion Strong-Moore if he'd remained at OU. His stats last year at Arkansas-Fort Worth were good enough that if he'd started there and if UAFS was a junior college, you'd likely have been chastising Coach Kruger for not bringing him in as a transfer.

Well, considering TY was coming in the next year he probably wouldn't have done much. So it is your opinion that he is a legitimate Big 12 caliber player?

 

[WTSooner]

The point is... Kelvin regularly competed for Big 12 Regular Season and Big 12 Tournament Championships and Lon Kruger has the worst record in the Big 12 and is .500 overall in the league. When 81% of Sampsons recruits are Big 12-capable players and 55% of Krugers are, you see one of the problems.

Yep. Kelvin's OU teams finished outside of the top 3 in the conference only 3 times in 12 seasons. Kruger has only finished in the top 5 in the conference 4 times in 8 seasons.

Conference strength doesn't explain that IMO.

 

[skyvue]

I would count Calixte, but not Reynolds.

Are you aware that their stats are almost identical? The only prominent difference is in 3-pt shooting percentage and Reynolds only averaged one shot from behind the arc per game, so he wasn't really hurting us in that regard.

Your choices seem to be arbitrary at best.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Yep. Kelvin's OU teams finished outside of the top 3 in the conference only 3 times in 12 seasons. Kruger has only finished in the top 5 in the conference 4 times in 8 seasons.

Conference strength doesn't explain that IMO.

But, but . . . I thought the goal was WINNING the conference and hanging banners. If so, top 3 just doesn't cut it. Kelvin only hung one conference regular season banner in 12 years, so Lon isn't far off with zero in eight.