Recruiting Success Rates

The point is... Kelvin regularly competed for Big 12 Regular Season and Big 12 Tournament Championships and Lon Kruger has the worst record in the Big 12 and is .500 overall in the league. When 81% of Sampsons recruits are Big 12-capable players and 55% of Krugers are, you see one of the problems.

Well one could easily argue Kelvin put to much emphasis on a meaningless big 12 tournament to the detriment of results of a much more important NCAA tournament.

The only problem I see is some people don’t understand the reality of the OU program


BTW
Since Krueger took over he has more wins than Texas, Iowa State, OSU Texas Tech, and TCU in conference in the time period he has been coach, so that worst record argument in the Big 12 is pretty bogus
 
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I am trying to be 100% fair here... Not trying to be biased. Simply a look at the amount of guys that are signed that don't/can't play.

Kelvin Sampson - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2002 - Kevin Bookout and Larry Turner
2003 - Brandon Foust/Drew Lavender/LMack/Jaison Williams/Jimmy Tobias
2004 - Taj Gray/Longar Longar/Terrell Everett
2005 - Austin Johnson/Mike Neal/Tony Crocker/Taylor Griffin/Chris Walker

15 players total. 12 were more than capable of playing at OU. Tobias, Walker, and Turner being the exceptions.

81% success rate.

Lon Kruger - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2015 - Manyang, Freeman, Christian James, Rashard Odomes
2016 - Darrion Strong, Kam McGusty, Doolittle, Shepherd
2017 - Hannes Polla, Brady Manek, Trae Young, Ty Lazenby
2018 - Jamal Bienemy, Kur Kuath

14 players total. 8 were more than capable of playing at OU. I am counting Kuath as a "can". Freeman, Polla, Manyang, Strong, Ty, and Shepherd are on the cut list.

57% success rate. If Kuath isn't good enough for OU it will go to 50%. I suspect Kuath will be pretty solid though. He's an insane athlete who got an extra year of coaching if he was able to practice at all.

Is this fair and accurate?

I have qualms with how you operationalized "success" rate. In social science research, there's content validity. I'm not sure how you are measuring success in this context actually means success. 🤷🏾*♂️
 
Big, there is a huge flaw in using those years as your comparison. Only one of the SEVEN high school signees from those first two classes (you forgot DeAngelo Alexander) lasted more than two seasons with Coach Sampson. The 2003 recruiting class highlighted by Drew Lavendar was a top 5 recruiting class - and it completely fell apart.

I just don't think it's a good comparison. Yes, they guys Coach Sampson recruited in his last four classes were definitely better than Coach Kruger's last four classes - but when all but one of the high school recruits transfer out, it loses some luster for sure.

If Coach Kruger were to retire after this season and OU was to lose on Friday - he and Coach Sampson would have the exact same number of NCAA Tournament victories in their last four years - 4...and the same number of NCAA Tournament appearances - 3.


Coach Sampson's biggest edge over Coach Kruger was the fact the former knew how to recruit JUCO talent...the latter just hasn't had any success with that in Norman.
 
The point is... Kelvin regularly competed for Big 12 Regular Season and Big 12 Tournament Championships and Lon Kruger has the worst record in the Big 12 and is .500 overall in the league. When 81% of Sampsons recruits are Big 12-capable players and 55% of Krugers are, you see one of the problems.

those are not real % numbers
 
I have qualms with how you operationalized "success" rate. In social science research, there's content validity. I'm not sure how you are measuring success in this context actually means success. 🤷🏾*♂️

so much this
 
Yep. Kelvin's OU teams finished outside of the top 3 in the conference only 3 times in 12 seasons. Kruger has only finished in the top 5 in the conference 4 times in 8 seasons.

Conference strength doesn't explain that IMO.

None of this accounts for what Capel left Kruger with. He had 2 consecutive losing seasons. The team was decimated by transfers, etc., and we were on probation.

And it strikes me as ironic that we are talking about Kelvin being a great recruiter when he literally got us put on probation for recruiting violations, just like at Indiana.

I am glad he has found success elsewhere and am appreciative of the time he was here, but this argument is dumb. There isn't any substantial difference between their overall recruiting and not really much difference in their tourney results.

Kelvin had fewer down years. The year after the Final Four was terribly disappointing. The end of last year was disappointing. Improvement is needed for the long term, but 6 of 8 tournaments with a Final Four and Sweet Sixteen is pretty good when you consider what he was left.
 
None of this accounts for what Capel left Kruger with. He had 2 consecutive losing seasons. The team was decimated by transfers, etc., and we were on probation.

And it strikes me as ironic that we are talking about Kelvin being a great recruiter when he literally got us put on probation for recruiting violations, just like at Indiana.

I am glad he has found success elsewhere and am appreciative of the time he was here, but this argument is dumb. There isn't any substantial difference between their overall recruiting and not really much difference in their tourney results.

Kelvin had fewer down years. The year after the Final Four was terribly disappointing. The end of last year was disappointing. Improvement is needed for the long term, but 6 of 8 tournaments with a Final Four and Sweet Sixteen is pretty good when you consider what he was left.

KS wasn’t a great recruiter. His best class was the one that landed us on probation and they never enrolled here. He was a damn good coach that always got the most out of the teams he put together. They had flaws but they competed and played hard.

Part of Kruger’s difficulties in recruiting are linked to his refusal to play dirty. That limits a lot of talented players and it completely eliminates the elite top end talent that is always for sale. All the elites in CBB are cheating and buying players and providing illegal benefits to land those players. Kruger will never do that.
 
KS wasn’t a great recruiter. His best class was the one that landed us on probation and they never enrolled here. He was a damn good coach that always got the most out of the teams he put together. They had flaws but they competed and played hard.

Part of Kruger’s difficulties in recruiting are linked to his refusal to play dirty. That limits a lot of talented players and it completely eliminates the elite top end talent that is always for sale. All the elites in CBB are cheating and buying players and providing illegal benefits to land those players. Kruger will never do that.

We have no idea if Kruger plays dirty, or refuses to do so, etc. It doesn't seem like he does, but how could we possibly know if he has taken some sort of moral high ground?
 
KS not a good recruiter?

Ebi Ere
-Big 12 Newcomer of the Year. All Big 12 Player. All NCAA Tournament Team

Quannas White
-Big 12 All Newcomer Team. NCAA West Regional Team.. All big 12 Tournament team.

Hollis Price
-National All-American... All Big 12.. Etc so on

Ace McGhee
-1st Team All Big 12. All NewComer Team. Arguably was the best player in the country the second half of his senior year.

Eduardo Najera
-National All-American... All big 12... In OU's top 10 in 9 different stat categories. Hall of famer.

Taj Gray
-1st Team All big 12... Big 12 Newcomer of the Year...

Ryan Minor
-All-American. 1st Team all big 12.

Corey Brewer
-1st team All big 12.

Mike Neal
-Big 12 Newcomer of the Year. All Newcomer team... 2nd team All big 12.

Kevin Bookout
-All Big 12 player

Terrell Everett
-2nd Team All Big 12... All newcomer team.. Top 10 nationally in assists

JR Raymond
-3rd team All Big 12... All Newcomer Team.

Other random guys:
Daryan Selvy... might have been the best defensive player in the league.
Nolan Johnson... might have been the second toughest dude to play at OU under Sampson, right behind Najera.

I am probably forgetting several guys... but under Sampson they were landing multiple guys on newcomer, freshman, all conference, all NCAA Tournament, etc teams for YEARS.

In one season Everett, Gray, Neal, and Bookout made All-Conference.
In another season Price, Ere, White, and McGhee made All-Conference
Etc..

Sampson was a great coach, but he brought in a great deal of talent, many of which played at the same time. Thats how you win 25 games a year.
 
None of this accounts for what Capel left Kruger with. He had 2 consecutive losing seasons. The team was decimated by transfers, etc., and we were on probation.

Probation, lol. Do you know what our probation was? I think it was something like a loss of 1 scholarship for 2 years, and 2 years with slightly reduced off campus recruiting visits. It was hardly anything, and it certainly wasn't anything severe enough to make any sizeable impact on the program.

And Billy's last year before Kelvin took over he was 15-13. That is very close to the record the two seasons for Capel before Lon took over. We weren't some dumpster fire. Let's not forget, Lon inherited Cam Clark, Fitzgerald, Pledger, Neal, and Osby (I think). That isn't "decimated." Everybody assumes because Capel couldn't win that the talent was bad. No. Capel was just a bad coach.

And it strikes me as ironic that we are talking about Kelvin being a great recruiter when he literally got us put on probation for recruiting violations, just like at Indiana.

I am glad he has found success elsewhere and am appreciative of the time he was here, but this argument is dumb. There isn't any substantial difference between their overall recruiting and not really much difference in their tourney results.

Stop acting like he was paying players. Most of the "unallowed" phone calls and texts were to players already committed to him. It really wasn't him recruiting guys in that last class, I remember a BUNCH of them being calls to Austin Johnson, long after he had been committed to OU. Violations? Sure. But none of his violations, that I saw, were of the manner that suggested the violations were the reason we were landing kids. His recruiting improved his entire time at OU. From JUCO's early, to getting better HS talent, to finally bringing in some top HS talent at the very end. That's a pretty natural progression for a coach that stays in one spot for that long and keeps winning at a higher level.

And you still don't get it (ie, Kelvin vs Lon). Yes, in a lot of ways the results look similar. I don't agree that the recruiting does. But it's manner that they are getting there. Sampson slowly build the program up over his first 5 years, then he pretty much kept them at 25 wins after that. Sure, he had 2004 season when he was rebuilding with a bunch of highly rated freshman, and Bookout missed most of the season. But that team was still one win from Dancing. If THAT is a coach's down season, I can live with that. A little different than and 11 win, 20 loss season, followed by two more <20 win seasons. It's about the consistency, direction, and toughness of the program. Lon has always had a rockier program than I'd prefer for here at OU. Too many ups and downs. OU should be able to consistently trot out a 20-25 win team, and a team that makes the Dance with at least an 8 seed (top half) most all of the time. Limping into the tournament two years in a row and trying to compare that to a coach/team/program that also made the Dance two years in a row but did so MUCH more easily, is disingenuous.

Kelvin had fewer down years. The year after the Final Four was terribly disappointing. The end of last year was disappointing. Improvement is needed for the long term, but 6 of 8 tournaments with a Final Four and Sweet Sixteen is pretty good when you consider what he was left.

Why was that year disappointing? Do you know how young that team was? And they lost Bookout? And JB down the stretch? And they still were one game from making the Dance, and had a better record than the last three OU teams.

And I'll say this again, by year 8 of a coach's tenure, "what he was left with" doesn't matter. He's had at least 3-4 full recruiting classes, of his own, move through the program. Nobody is upset over Lon's overall body of work, necessarily. They are upset with the last three years, and where the program is currently and is projected. We should be more stable this far into Lon's tenure. But we're not. We should have a fairly solid roster top to bottom. But we don't. Too many project guys, even with next year's projected roster. That is the complaint some of us have.
 
Why was that year disappointing? Do you know how young that team was? And they lost Bookout? And JB down the stretch? And they still were one game from making the Dance, and had a better record than the last three OU teams.

In other words -- when Kelvin's team didn't make the tourney but came close, it was NOT a disappointment. When Lon's team does make the tourney, by a relatively comfortable margin, it IS disappointing. Just wanted to make sure we have that logic straight.
 
the fact the kevin bookout was "all big 12" should tell you all you need to know about the strength of the leage back then
 
I am trying to be 100% fair here... Not trying to be biased. Simply a look at the amount of guys that are signed that don't/can't play.

Kelvin Sampson - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2002 - Kevin Bookout and Larry Turner
2003 - Brandon Foust/Drew Lavender/LMack/Jaison Williams/Jimmy Tobias
2004 - Taj Gray/Longar Longar/Terrell Everett
2005 - Austin Johnson/Mike Neal/Tony Crocker/Taylor Griffin/Chris Walker

15 players total. 12 were more than capable of playing at OU. Tobias, Walker, and Turner being the exceptions.

81% success rate.

Lon Kruger - Last 4 Recruiting Classes
2015 - Manyang, Freeman, Christian James, Rashard Odomes
2016 - Darrion Strong, Kam McGusty, Doolittle, Shepherd
2017 - Hannes Polla, Brady Manek, Trae Young, Ty Lazenby
2018 - Jamal Bienemy, Kur Kuath

14 players total. 8 were more than capable of playing at OU. I am counting Kuath as a "can". Freeman, Polla, Manyang, Strong, Ty, and Shepherd are on the cut list.

57% success rate. If Kuath isn't good enough for OU it will go to 50%. I suspect Kuath will be pretty solid though. He's an insane athlete who got an extra year of coaching if he was able to practice at all.

Is this fair and accurate?

I think Larry Turner would have developed into a good player had he stayed. It seems like he played for an NCAA team after he transferred and I can remember watching him and he was quite a bit better than when he was at OU.
 
Probation, lol. Do you know what our probation was? I think it was something like a loss of 1 scholarship for 2 years, and 2 years with slightly reduced off campus recruiting visits. It was hardly anything, and it certainly wasn't anything severe enough to make any sizeable impact on the program.

And Billy's last year before Kelvin took over he was 15-13. That is very close to the record the two seasons for Capel before Lon took over. We weren't some dumpster fire. Let's not forget, Lon inherited Cam Clark, Fitzgerald, Pledger, Neal, and Osby (I think). That isn't "decimated." Everybody assumes because Capel couldn't win that the talent was bad. No. Capel was just a bad coach.



Stop acting like he was paying players. Most of the "unallowed" phone calls and texts were to players already committed to him. It really wasn't him recruiting guys in that last class, I remember a BUNCH of them being calls to Austin Johnson, long after he had been committed to OU. Violations? Sure. But none of his violations, that I saw, were of the manner that suggested the violations were the reason we were landing kids. His recruiting improved his entire time at OU. From JUCO's early, to getting better HS talent, to finally bringing in some top HS talent at the very end. That's a pretty natural progression for a coach that stays in one spot for that long and keeps winning at a higher level.

And you still don't get it (ie, Kelvin vs Lon). Yes, in a lot of ways the results look similar. I don't agree that the recruiting does. But it's manner that they are getting there. Sampson slowly build the program up over his first 5 years, then he pretty much kept them at 25 wins after that. Sure, he had 2004 season when he was rebuilding with a bunch of highly rated freshman, and Bookout missed most of the season. But that team was still one win from Dancing. If THAT is a coach's down season, I can live with that. A little different than and 11 win, 20 loss season, followed by two more <20 win seasons. It's about the consistency, direction, and toughness of the program. Lon has always had a rockier program than I'd prefer for here at OU. Too many ups and downs. OU should be able to consistently trot out a 20-25 win team, and a team that makes the Dance with at least an 8 seed (top half) most all of the time. Limping into the tournament two years in a row and trying to compare that to a coach/team/program that also made the Dance two years in a row but did so MUCH more easily, is disingenuous.



Why was that year disappointing? Do you know how young that team was? And they lost Bookout? And JB down the stretch? And they still were one game from making the Dance, and had a better record than the last three OU teams.

And I'll say this again, by year 8 of a coach's tenure, "what he was left with" doesn't matter. He's had at least 3-4 full recruiting classes, of his own, move through the program. Nobody is upset over Lon's overall body of work, necessarily. They are upset with the last three years, and where the program is currently and is projected. We should be more stable this far into Lon's tenure. But we're not. We should have a fairly solid roster top to bottom. But we don't. Too many project guys, even with next year's projected roster. That is the complaint some of us have.

I think he was talking about the the 2017 season for Lon, which was his year after the final 4. Kelvin's season after his final four was an elite 8 loss to the eventual NC about an hour from their campus. That season was not disappointing.
 
KS not a good recruiter?

Ebi Ere
-Big 12 Newcomer of the Year. All Big 12 Player. All NCAA Tournament Team

Quannas White
-Big 12 All Newcomer Team. NCAA West Regional Team.. All big 12 Tournament team.

Hollis Price
-National All-American... All Big 12.. Etc so on

Ace McGhee
-1st Team All Big 12. All NewComer Team. Arguably was the best player in the country the second half of his senior year.

Eduardo Najera
-National All-American... All big 12... In OU's top 10 in 9 different stat categories. Hall of famer.

Taj Gray
-1st Team All big 12... Big 12 Newcomer of the Year...

Ryan Minor
-All-American. 1st Team all big 12.

Corey Brewer
-1st team All big 12.

Mike Neal
-Big 12 Newcomer of the Year. All Newcomer team... 2nd team All big 12.

Kevin Bookout
-All Big 12 player

Terrell Everett
-2nd Team All Big 12... All newcomer team.. Top 10 nationally in assists

JR Raymond
-3rd team All Big 12... All Newcomer Team.

Other random guys:
Daryan Selvy... might have been the best defensive player in the league.
Nolan Johnson... might have been the second toughest dude to play at OU under Sampson, right behind Najera.

I am probably forgetting several guys... but under Sampson they were landing multiple guys on newcomer, freshman, all conference, all NCAA Tournament, etc teams for YEARS.

In one season Everett, Gray, Neal, and Bookout made All-Conference.
In another season Price, Ere, White, and McGhee made All-Conference
Etc..

Sampson was a great coach, but he brought in a great deal of talent, many of which played at the same time. Thats how you win 25 games a year.

Ryan Minor was a Tubbs recruit.

You left out Erdmann who was a very solid player for OU.

Kelvin had some other recruits who would have been all big 12 had it not been for injuries like Bobby Joe Evans.

Michael Cotton was a solid player for Boston College after he transferred out.

You also have to include the "glue guys" Kelvin recruited. Guys who hustled and played good defense. He had a number of those type guys -- Renzi Stone, Heskett, Jameel Heywood, Szendrei, etc.
 
Ryan Minor was a Tubbs recruit.

You left out Erdmann who was a very solid player for OU.

Kelvin had some other recruits who would have been all big 12 had it not been for injuries like Bobby Joe Evans.

Michael Cotton was a solid player for Boston College after he transferred out.

You also have to include the "glue guys" Kelvin recruited. Guys who hustled and played good defense. He had a number of those type guys -- Renzi Stone, Heskett, Jameel Heywood, Szendrei, etc.

Yep, good points. Sampson was great at glue guys.

Michael Johnson... Nolan Johnson... Johnny Gilbert... David Godbold... Kelley Newton... Dion Barnes.... Eric Martin, etc on top of the guys you mentioned.
 
Yep, good points. Sampson was great at glue guys.

Michael Johnson... Nolan Johnson... Johnny Gilbert... David Godbold... Kelley Newton... Dion Barnes.... Eric Martin, etc on top of the guys you mentioned.

I liked Gilbert and Godbold both, but they were NOT appreciated by many of the fans at the time. Just like Kelvin, the years have burnished their reputations with many of those fans.

A young fan reading all these golden memories of Sampson's time in Norman today would be stunned to read what was being said by many posters at the time.
 
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