Big 12 Seeding

[Hollisp]

Guy gives out good info on all conferences. Here is his recent probability with the Big 12. Figured it would be good info for the board.

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1221842520851828736?s=21

2/3 update: Not much has changed for OU
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1224366170930892800?s=21

2/10 update: pretty significant shift to us being the 5 seed.
https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1226911466105851904?s=21

 

[CoachTalk]

@ KSU is so tough... It'd help if we could find a way.

 

[stormspencer]

Guy gives out good info on all conferences. Here is his recent probability with the Big 12. Figured it would be good info for the board.

https://twitter.com/mjhackman/status/1221842520851828736?s=21

Thanks for posting that. The same guy used to post on Bill Connelly's S&P+ twitter for college football.

I'm a little surprised that TCU's probabilities put them in 5th instead of us. As of now, they have a better home win (Tech), but we have a better road win (Texas). We really need to win that finale in Ft. Worth.

Also, Tech is considered the 4th best team, but I'm not completely sold on them in that spot primarily because of their youth.....but Beard can not be underestimated.

 

[thebigabd]

@ KSU is so tough... It'd help if we could find a way.

That is a must win, barring upset somewhere else.

 

[daqman]

The 9th place team. So tough.
But it shouldn't be.

 

[sheepdogs1]

The 9th place team. So tough.
But it shouldn't be.

Playing on the road is always an obstacle regardless of the opponent.

 

[stormspencer]

The 9th place team. So tough.
But it shouldn't be.

Ask West Virginia how tough KSU can be in Manhattan.

 

[TheGimper]

Playing on the road is always an obstacle regardless of the opponent.

Plus, historically Lon has struggled against his alma mater ever since he’s been at OU. I can’t remember the last time we swept KSU.

 

[TheMont]

Plus, historically Lon has struggled against his alma mater ever since he’s been at OU. I can’t remember the last time we swept KSU.

It has only happened once during the Lon Kruger era: 2012.

 

[opsooner]

Ask West Virginia how tough KSU can be in Manhattan.

Difference was energy. Have to match their energy. By the time WV finally did the hole was too deep.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[TINY]

Playing on the road is always an obstacle regardless of the opponent.

This. It is ridiculously tough to win on the road in college hoops. The big 10 home teams are winning at 90%+ clip during conference play.

 

[scrybe]

And the Mildcats traditionally become Wildcats when they host any Big 12 team in Manhatten – whether if be OU, KU, Baylor, et al.

 

[daqman]

TCU and Tech beat them in Manhattan.
They only have ONE conference win.

 

[sheepdogs1]

TCU and Tech beat them in Manhattan.
They only have ONE conference win.

There is a saying "any given Sunday" and it is applicable to this conversation. If K State comes with effort that tends to mitigate a team's deficiencies. They no doubt have deficiencies but we do too.

 

[mict085]

We played like total crap at Iowa st and played very well at Baylor. Tough to figure. We haven’t played well at Kansas state since Lon has been here. We need to win this game if we’re going to make the tourney. If the texas game is our only road conference win, we’re not getting in.

 

[BoulderSooner]

We played like total crap at Iowa st and played very well at Baylor. Tough to figure. We haven’t played well at Kansas state since Lon has been here. We need to win this game if we’re going to make the tourney. If the texas game is our only road conference win, we’re not getting in.

where OU wins games is not relevant

OU needs 6 more regular season wins to be a lock

6 more total wins puts OU right on the bubble

 

[Max Power]

where OU wins games is not relevant

OU needs 6 more regular season wins to be a lock

6 more total wins puts OU right on the bubble

As long as 1 of the 6 is osu at home i agree. we lose to osu at home it gets a little dicey with a quad 3 loss. every other game left before the big 12 tournament is a quad 1 or 2 game. finish 6th in the conference or better we avoid another quad 3 game all together

 

[BoulderSooner]

As long as 1 of the 6 is osu at home i agree. we lose to osu at home it gets a little dicey with a quad 3 loss. every other game left before the big 12 tournament is a quad 1 or 2 game. finish 6th in the conference or better we avoid another quad 3 game all together

perhaps but OSU is currently net 76 if they move up 1 spot it would no longer be a Q3 game

 

[stormspencer]

As long as 1 of the 6 is osu at home i agree. we lose to osu at home it gets a little dicey with a quad 3 loss. every other game left before the big 12 tournament is a quad 1 or 2 game. finish 6th in the conference or better we avoid another quad 3 game all together

We are a lock with 6 more wins (for a win total of 19). And you're right, it would be a good idea not to lose to OSU at home....however, if we get to 19 (regardless of the OSU home game), we are still in great shape.

I think this team can get to 20 or 21 wins (including one win in KC)....which would theoretically put us in 7/8 seed range. But we are going to need to beat Tech at home and maybe WV at home. And if they can pull that off, it will really look like a nice season where the trajectory is headed in the right direction.

 

[mict085]

where OU wins games is not relevant

OU needs 6 more regular season wins to be a lock

6 more total wins puts OU right on the bubble

While this may be true, the chances of winning are higher against the bad teams vs the top teams. Ksu is a bad team. The chances of getting those 6 wins decreases if we can’t beat ksu.