March Madness and Covid-19

[BoulderSooner]

That's for an entirely healthy person under 60, that doesn't include all the other subsets of people. You aren't getting what I'm saying, that's an incredibly high death rate from a disease that millions of people are probably going to catch

if millions are going to catch this either way then shutting down the economy is an even worse idea

 

[steverocks35]

if millions are going to catch this either way then shutting down the economy is an even worse idea

Millions will catch it if we don't take drastic actions now, that's what I'm saying.

 

[OUSKINS]

Millions will catch it if we don't take drastic actions now, that's what I'm saying.

Well, Osterholm just said he basically thinks the genie is out of the bottle and that at this point he wouldn’t even stop international travel. He said he doesn’t think quarantines work either. He did have some dire predictions in terms of numbers, but basically said it is what it is at this point. I guess my point would be if you believe his assessment on the numbers, then why scoff at his thoughts on the precautions?

 

[steverocks35]

Well, Osterholm just said he basically thinks the genie is out of the bottle and that at this point he wouldn’t even stop international travel. He said he doesn’t think quarantines work either. He did have some dire predictions in terms of numbers, but basically said it is what it is at this point. I guess my point would be if you believe his assessment on the numbers, then why scoff at his thoughts on the precautions?

Nobody knows what the tipping point is so it would be unconscionable not to act

 

[BoulderSooner]

Well, Osterholm just said he basically thinks the genie is out of the bottle and that at this point he wouldn’t even stop international travel. He said he doesn’t think quarantines work either. He did have some dire predictions in terms of numbers, but basically said it is what it is at this point. I guess my point would be if you believe his assessment on the numbers, then why scoff at his thoughts on the precautions?

interesting

 

[BoulderSooner]

Nobody knows what the tipping point is so it would be unconscionable not to act

destroying the economy would also be terrible

 

[steverocks35]

destroying the economy would also be terrible

What would be more terrible than “destroying” the economy would be to allow thousands more to die because we were afraid we might destroy the economy if we acted.

 

[OUSKINS]

What would be more terrible than “destroying” the economy would be to allow thousands more to die because we were afraid we might destroy the economy if we acted.

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but if the economy does indeed completely tank, especially if the cloud of fear continues to hang, there will be unintended consequences for the those lowest on the chain, and those consequences could be quite dire.

 

[steverocks35]

I’m not saying you’re wrong, but if the economy does indeed completely tank, especially if the cloud of fear continues to hang, there will be unintended consequences for the those lowest on the chain, and those consequences could be quite dire.

Oh I don't disagree, and the economy is already super jittery over our lack of decisive action and denial, along with the oil war between OPEC and Russia. A perfect storm.

 

[steverocks35]

Just checked for updates, another nursing home in Washington, this one in Kirkland, is reporting 19 deaths so far and 65 employees have symptoms. There are 200 employees at this facility and none of them have been tested because there's such a backlog. The first responders that had been in and out of the nursing home (firefighters) have had swabs sent off to be tested but the specimens expired while they were waiting to be tested so they have to be reswabbed and stay in quarantine longer.

A disaster really.

 

[steverocks35]

I found that interview with an infectious disease expert that OUSKINS referenced earlier. It's very informative. He does a good job explaining the basics.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opinions/osterholm-coronavirus-interview-bergen/index.html

 

[stormspencer]

Oh I don't disagree, and the economy is already super jittery over our lack of decisive action and denial, along with the oil war between OPEC and Russia. A perfect storm.

The OPEC issue is much more of a contributing factor to the heavy, short-term losses in trading right now. Once that gets resolved, we will see how the economy reacts exclusively to this outbreak. IMO, I'm not as dire because either we will adjust or once again....we will innovate our way out of this like we always do (vaccine, medication, etc.).

 

[steverocks35]

I would agree with you if the market hadn’t already tanked last week

 

[MJSooner]

The OPEC issue is much more of a contributing factor to the heavy, short-term losses in trading right now. Once that gets resolved, we will see how the economy reacts exclusively to this outbreak. IMO, I'm not as dire because either we will adjust or once again....we will innovate our way out of this like we always do (vaccine, medication, etc.).

I don't think this is entirely correct, and steve might be more right.

The market started tanking when the COVID19 hit China, they quarantined, and then came the fears about supply chain disruptions. It was a fear demand would outweigh supply. It rebounded a bit last week when China's numbers started to flatline and factories came back online.

It started going down again last Thursday and Friday as the outbreak hit the US, cancellations and quarantines started happening here, and Italy shutdown half of its country Friday. This shifted the fears to a demand slowdown, which led to fears of a recession. This is also why oil had already dipped to the high $30s/low $40s. Then Russia and Saudi Arabia pulled their stunt over the weekend.

The market declined started as a demand/supply chain panic and turned into fears over demand/recession. Yes, oil didn't help. But keep in mind, even with the sell-off, we still haven't seen the impact of lower corporate earnings and weaker economic data. If this virus spread continues at the pace it is on and earnings and GDP take a hit, we could go lower.

If it was the OPEC issue as the contributing factor, we would not have seen the rally we did today based on maybe the administration going to eliminate payroll taxes or a package to pay for time off work. That has nothing to do with oil.

Yes, we will adjust and market history shows we recover from every unforeseen event. But the average time of recovery is at minimum 100 days after the event, and we may not be done yet with this "event"

 

[MJSooner]

if millions are going to catch this either way then shutting down the economy is an even worse idea

Millions will catch it if we don't take drastic actions now, that's what I'm saying.

You are both correct and steve you could have stopped your statement at "millions will catch it".

That will shut down the economy.

Everything is being canceled, or being broadcast, played or conducted with no crowds. It will get even worse as it continues to spread.

 

[sheepdogs1]

I don't think this is entirely correct, and steve might be more right.

The market started tanking when the COVID19 hit China, they quarantined, and then came the fears about supply chain disruptions. It was a fear demand would outweigh supply. It rebounded a bit last week when China's numbers started to flatline and factories came back online.

It started going down again last Thursday and Friday as the outbreak hit the US, cancellations and quarantines started happening here, and Italy shutdown half of its country Friday. This shifted the fears to a demand slowdown, which led to fears of a recession. This is also why oil had already dipped to the high $30s/low $40s. Then Russia and Saudi Arabia pulled their stunt over the weekend.

The market declined started as a demand/supply chain panic and turned into fears over demand/recession. Yes, oil didn't help. But keep in mind, even with the sell-off, we still haven't seen the impact of lower corporate earnings and weaker economic data. If this virus spread continues at the pace it is on and earnings and GDP take a hit, we could go lower.

If it was the OPEC issue as the contributing factor, we would not have seen the rally we did today based on maybe the administration going to eliminate payroll taxes or a package to pay for time off work. That has nothing to do with oil.

Yes, we will adjust and market history shows we recover from every unforeseen event. But the average time of recovery is at minimum 100 days after the event, and we may not be done yet with this "event"

Nice writeup. Glad you consulted me. Europe is seen as a more of a replica of our society as compared to those in Asia. When Europe started to fall by the way side that just reinforced the inevitability that the virus would hit us rather hard and thus precipitated a harder drop in the market.

 

[steverocks35]

Nice writeup. Glad you consulted me. Europe is seen as a more of a replica of our society as compared to those in Asia. When Europe started to fall by the way side that just reinforced the inevitability that the virus would hit us rather hard and thus precipitated a harder drop in the market.

That and our total lack of preparedness and sense that leadership is in denial. We were told less than two weeks ago that the number of infected was 15 and would soon drop to zero. Now we are probably north of 1,000 infected.

 

[sheepdogs1]

That and our total lack of preparedness and sense that leadership is in denial. We were told less than two weeks ago that the number of infected was 15 and would soon drop to zero. Now we are probably north of 1,000 infected.

Are you sure about this? Was "soon" meant to be hours, a day, week, month...?

 

[steverocks35]

Are you sure about this? Was "soon" meant to be hours, a day, week, month...?

Here's the exact quote.. I was paraphrasing: "when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

That was 13 days ago.

 

[sheepdogs1]

Here's the exact quote.. I was paraphrasing: "when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that's a pretty good job we've done."

That was 13 days ago.

Was the statement about perception and alleviating fears or do you believe he thought that was the reality of the situation. There should be a difference between the two for one is calming while the other is alarming.