Next year's Starting Lineup

[pnkranger]

This is why it's so hard to predict next year right now: OU will have five new guys suiting up next year...

Woodard
Booker
Bennett
Spangler
Hamilton (or Elliot?)
and potentially a 6th

There's almost no way to predict how good those guys will be by December next year when the rubber hits the road. Add that to potential improvement for Hield, Hornbeak, Clark, M'Baye, Cousins, and Neal and the best any of us can do is a wild guess.

 

[KBaden145]

This is why it's so hard to predict next year right now: OU will have five new guys suiting up next year...

Woodard
Booker
Bennett
Spangler
Hamilton (or Elliot?)
and potentially a 6th

There's almost no way to predict how good those guys will be by December next year when the rubber hits the road. Add that to potential improvement for Hield, Hornbeak, Clark, M'Baye, Cousins, and Neal and the best any of us can do is a wild guess.

A big no on Eliott but you are right. It is a guess at this point. I really do believe everyone who started a game this year except Cousins (Hornbeak, Hield, and MBaye) ought to be considered virtual locks.

 

[MercedeSooner]

the biggest jump for players who see minutes is from their true freshman to soph year.. You can guarantee our 3 freshman will be markedly improved next year. Funny I am a lot more worried about what we may have inside then our guard play - all 3 kids showed a ton this year and they really are going to be something in year 3 and 4.

 

[stoops4pres]

I definitely think we are a bubble team just like this year. My point is, if the 10/11 and 11/12 team can win 15 games, then next years team can win 4-5 more which puts us in the conversation for postseason play. The lineup next year will be more talented than either of those teams and players won't be playing out of position out of necessity like in 11/12.

Were they ever really a "bubble" team this year, though? All the prognostications I read had OU in the dance, even after OU ended the season on its bad losing streak. And I'm not so confident that they'll be more talented next season, either.

You do bring up some good points, particularly with how it's plausible to get around the 20-win mark, and not having to play out of position as much. I don't think we'll be at the bottom of the barrel, but I don't foresee an improvement from this year, either.

 

[stoops4pres]

Can you point me to the posts that underestimate Osby's departure and the impact he had this season?

I'm not going to call out any posters on the thread. Feel free to DM me and we can talk about this particular subject. I think if you were to go back and read the first page of this thread, you'd find a few posts from others that do relate to my opinion on the matter.

I think we all know that everyone on next year's team will have to step up their game to offset losing Roe as much as possible. Will Cam Clark be one of those players? I have no idea, that is entirely up to him. If he doesn't make the effort to improve during the off season, he'll end his career the same way it began. An athletic wing with a lot of ability who developed into a good role player, but never fulfilled his potential. I hope that doesn't happen, because we'll need him to have that breakout season we have all been waiting for since he came to OU.

It will be interesting to see how things turn out. Will our newbies be as good as some of us think? Is Woodard good enough to start at some point of the season? Will M'Baye come in determined to pick up where Roe left off as the team leader and scorer? Will our three freshmen guards work hard enough this summer to blister the nets next fall? Who will start in Osby's place. Will it be Spangler? How much help will we get from Hamilton and Bennett?

There are so many questions about next year's team right now, it's impossible to say with any degree of accuracy how good they're going to be.

All valid questions. This offseason is more crucial than most, because of the expectation of continuing the momentum this team has set. Which is why I'll be paying more attention to the development of this roster than in year's past. Should be interesting.

 

[hoopsaustin]

We lose three poor seniors and one stud who was the heart and soul of the team. It will be an easy net gain. Anyone expecting a long season is idiotic..

 

[treebranch]

I think the key guy is Cameron Clark. His career is really baffling. I'm not sure how a player goes from hitting 25-67 from 3 in his freshman year to 5-18 his sophomore year to 1-1 his junior year, all while his shot overall has seemingly improved.

He needs to be versatile, rebound, and hit some outside shots to keep the defense honest. I don't think we can afford Cousins and M'Baye each taking 40 more threes than Clark next year unless they vastly improve their strokes.

 

[luckyc1423]

We lose three poor seniors and one stud who was the heart and soul of the team. It will be an easy net gain. Anyone expecting a long season is idiotic..

Are you kidding me?

three poor seniors and only one solid player??

Pledger and osby arent both solid?
Fitz was not a good scoring option off the bench?
Some could easily argue that without grooms we may loose another game or two?

So we loose our best post player, our third best post player, arguably our best ball handler, and our best scoring guard and you dont think we take a step back next year?

Yes the freshman will be improved, but im done thinking an incoming recruit will be a game changer. We thought that about osby (but he got alot better his senior year), we thought that about mbaye, now we want to think that about bennet or spangler.

The only hope we have is if mbaye is able to make the same jump in performance that osby made.

And lets dont forget how important osby's leadership was. Who exactly is going to be the vocal leader next year?

 

[DenverSooner]

I agree that it is wrong to simply dismiss Pledger, Fitzgerald and Grooms. That is a lot of experience and solid players. The biggest problem with those guys is how they played together more than their individual talent. This was especially true last season when Cam had to play the wing.

 

[hoopsaustin]

Are you kidding me?

three poor seniors and only one solid player??

Pledger NO and osby = Heck yes arent both solid?
Fitz was not a good scoring option off the bench? no, did you even watch the games? he didnt even play meaningful minutes in the last game of the yearSome could easily argue that without grooms we may loose another game or two? grooms also cost us damn near atleast two games with softass freshman like turnovers

So we loose our best post player, this will suck our third best post player Really?? ha arguably our best ball handler, are you kidding me? the senior point guard couldnt even handle rudimentary presses and our best scoring guard and you dont think we take a step back next year? No we will be better next year-- easily, with our freshman guards that are actually talented and have the right attitudes

Yes the freshman will be improved, but im done thinking an incoming recruit will be a game changer. We thought that about osby (but he got alot better his senior year), we thought that about mbaye, now we want to think that about bennet or spangler.
I think spangler will be a great contributor, im not even worrying about bennet, anyone else stepping up in the post will be icing for me

The only hope we have is if mbaye is able to make the same jump in performance that osby made.

And lets dont forget how important osby's leadership was. Who exactly is going to be the vocal leader next year?

i also expect cam to go off this next year and be a 12+ ppg scorer

 

[BigTime]

Are you kidding me?

three poor seniors and only one solid player??

Pledger and osby arent both solid?
Fitz was not a good scoring option off the bench?
Some could easily argue that without grooms we may loose another game or two?

So we loose our best post player, our third best post player, arguably our best ball handler, and our best scoring guard and you dont think we take a step back next year?

Yes the freshman will be improved, but im done thinking an incoming recruit will be a game changer. We thought that about osby (but he got alot better his senior year), we thought that about mbaye, now we want to think that about bennet or spangler.

The only hope we have is if mbaye is able to make the same jump in performance that osby made.

And lets dont forget how important osby's leadership was. Who exactly is going to be the vocal leader next year?

Lucky,

I think M'Baye, Hield and Hornbeak are great candidates to be vocal leaders next year - I don't think we will be weak in that area.

 

[garyeb2]

Are you kidding me?

three poor seniors and only one solid player??

Pledger and osby arent both solid?
Fitz was not a good scoring option off the bench?
Some could easily argue that without grooms we may loose another game or two?

So we loose our best post player, our third best post player, arguably our best ball handler, and our best scoring guard and you dont think we take a step back next year?

Yes the freshman will be improved, but im done thinking an incoming recruit will be a game changer. We thought that about osby (but he got alot better his senior year), we thought that about mbaye, now we want to think that about bennet or spangler.

The only hope we have is if mbaye is able to make the same jump in performance that osby made.

And lets dont forget how important osby's leadership was. Who exactly is going to be the vocal leader next year?

If you want to say that we were a top 40ish caliber team because we had players like Pledger, Grooms and Fitz in the program. I would certainly agree. But, we didn't have a top 25 caliber program because we had players like Pledger, Fitz, and Grooms.

Those types of limited one dimensional contributors impose a pretty low ceiling on a team. Osby's heroics had this group bumping up against all they could do as a team. Having those 3 move along is a positive in every aspect. It is a good thing in every way. There is no downside.

Stats are easy to replace. Which ever mix of players that move in to major minutes and roles will have a much much higher ceiling than the ones they replace. They will be young, But, they will be good.

Sure, Osby evolved into a pretty good locker room leader. But, next years team won't need so much of that. Buddy, Hornbeak, Cousins, Spangler, M'Baye are all self motivated strong personalities in their own right. And I'm guessing that the new recruits are cut from the same cloth. It was the under achieving under performing culture of the Capel left overs that need some one to bark at them.

 

[WTSooner]

i also expect cam to go off this next year and be a 12+ ppg scorer

You expect it enough to put some cash on it?

Because that ain't happening. His role next year will be the same as his role this year. Limited.

 

[luckyc1423]

Lucky,

I think M'Baye, Hield and Hornbeak are great candidates to be vocal leaders next year - I don't think we will be weak in that area.

K really hope your right, if someone does step up in that aspect then we should be fine.

I just think osby's and pledgers value is under appreciated (atleast pledgers most people think osby is great).

More importantly I think loosing our two best scoring options (in my opinion) will hurt the most. Unless mbaye makes the same jump osby did.

 

[luckyc1423]

If you want to say that we were a top 40ish caliber team because we had players like Pledger, Grooms and Fitz in the program. I would certainly agree. But, we didn't have a top 25 caliber program because we had players like Pledger, Fitz, and Grooms.

Those types of limited one dimensional contributors impose a pretty low ceiling on a team. Osby's heroics had this group bumping up against all they could do as a team. Having those 3 move along is a positive in every aspect. It is a good thing in every way. There is no downside.

Stats are easy to replace. Which ever mix of players that move in to major minutes and roles will have a much much higher ceiling than the ones they replace. They will be young, But, they will be good.

Sure, Osby evolved into a pretty good locker room leader. But, next years team won't need so much of that. Buddy, Hornbeak, Cousins, Spangler, M'Baye are all self motivated strong personalities in their own right. And I'm guessing that the new recruits are cut from the same cloth. It was the under achieving under performing culture of the Capel left overs that need some one to bark at them.

Yes thats what im saying. Do you believe loosing our two best scorers puts us in the top 25 mix?

If so I hope your right I just dont see it.

 

[luckyc1423]

Grooms and pledger arent good? so this means there are alot of big 12 teams with "not good" players

In big 12 play.

Scoring
Osby: 17.8 ppg (ranks# 2 in the big 12)
Pledger 12.3 ppg (ranks# 16 in the big 12)

Rebounding
Osby 7.3 rebounds per game (ranks# 5 in the big 12)

Assists
Grooms 3.72 per game (ranks# 7 in the big12)

Assist to turnover ratio
Grooms 2.79 (ranks # 2 in the big 12)

 

[luckyc1423]

Just to put it into even more perspective

Grooms Conference stats:

67 assists 24 turnovers 36 rebounds .500 from three .488 from the field

Cousins stats:

26 assists 22 turnovers 28 rebounds .188 from three .340 from the field



Who exactly was the better PG?

 

[KBaden145]

Grooms and pledger arent good? so this means there are alot of big 12 teams with "not good" players

In big 12 play.

Scoring
Osby: 17.8 ppg (ranks# 2 in the big 12)
Pledger 12.3 ppg (ranks# 16 in the big 12)

Rebounding
Osby 7.3 rebounds per game (ranks# 5 in the big 12)

Assists
Grooms 3.72 per game (ranks# 7 in the big12)

Assist to turnover ratio
Grooms 2.79 (ranks # 2 in the big 12)

Replacing Grooms, Pledger, Fitz, and Osby with what we have returning and what we will eventually have coming in will be a net gain in almost all respects. Offense might be a struggle early but better defense, better rebounding, better talent and length will overcome it.

 

[bgrch1350]

K really hope your right, if someone does step up in that aspect then we should be fine.

I just think osby's and pledgers value is under appreciated (atleast pledgers most people think osby is great).

More importantly I think loosing our two best scoring options (in my opinion) will hurt the most. Unless mbaye makes the same jump osby did.

M'Baye wasn't even as good as Osby was last season.

 

[bgrch1350]

Replacing Grooms, Pledger, Fitz, and Osby with what we have returning and what we will eventually have coming in will be a net gain in almost all respects. Offense might be a struggle early but better defense, better rebounding, better talent and length will overcome it.

Better rebounding??? tell me how when we lose our best rebounder?