Next year's Starting Lineup

[bgrch1350]

If you want to say that we were a top 40ish caliber team because we had players like Pledger, Grooms and Fitz in the program. I would certainly agree. But, we didn't have a top 25 caliber program because we had players like Pledger, Fitz, and Grooms.

Those types of limited one dimensional contributors impose a pretty low ceiling on a team. Osby's heroics had this group bumping up against all they could do as a team. Having those 3 move along is a positive in every aspect. It is a good thing in every way. There is no downside.

Stats are easy to replace. Which ever mix of players that move in to major minutes and roles will have a much much higher ceiling than the ones they replace. They will be young, But, they will be good.

Sure, Osby evolved into a pretty good locker room leader. But, next years team won't need so much of that. Buddy, Hornbeak, Cousins, Spangler, M'Baye are all self motivated strong personalities in their own right. And I'm guessing that the new recruits are cut from the same cloth. It was the under achieving under performing culture of the Capel left overs that need some one to bark at them.

We are going to be extremely young next season. I don't know how many wins we will get b/c I don't know what kind of schedule we will have but next season is not going to be good(making it to the ncaa tournament).

Your talking 3 or 4 sophmores starting...possibly a freshman as well. M'Baye and Clark who hasn't shown any real consistency.

Its going to look very similar to what W.V. did this season.

 

[garyeb2]

Yes thats what im saying. Do you believe loosing our two best scorers puts us in the top 25 mix?

If so I hope your right I just dont see it.

What I'm saying is that stats are easy to replace. I think we will have 2 guards match or better Pledger's scoring average from this past season. And that isn't counting what ever manifestation Cam takes on.

I'm saying that whatever production Osby, M'Baye, And Fitz put up will be closely matched by M'Baye, Spangler and Bennett.

There will be no drop off in interior defense or rebounding. It will be marginally better because Bennett will be coming off the bench instead of Fitz.

Next years addition will be more athletic and faster by an obvious and measureable amount. That is a good thing. It is a consistent trait of good teams.

Perimeter defense will be better. I agree that after Cousins hit a wall and bounced backwards, Grooms need to be in there. Pledger's potential to hit shots in bunches kept him on the floor. Good team defense is possible with one but not two weak links.

My contention is that we will be a little better with the kids currently on campus. If Woodard, Booker, Hamilton, or some one to be named later is actually good enough to come in and be a starter or even a legit 8 man rotation kind of good. We will have a top 25 level ceiling.

 

[KBaden145]

What I'm saying is that stats are easy to replace. I think we will have 2 guards match or better Pledger's scoring average from this past season. And that isn't counting what ever manifestation Cam takes on.

I'm saying that whatever production Osby, M'Baye, And Fitz put up will be closely matched by M'Baye, Spangler and Bennett.

There will be no drop off in interior defense or rebounding. It will be marginally better because Bennett will be coming off the bench instead of Fitz.

Next years addition will be more athletic and faster by an obvious and measureable amount. That is a good thing. It is a consistent trait of good teams.

Perimeter defense will be better. I agree that after Cousins hit a wall and bounced backwards, Grooms need to be in there. Pledger's potential to hit shots in bunches kept him on the floor. Good team defense is possible with one but not two weak links.

My contention is that we will be a little better with the kids currently on campus. If Woodard, Booker, Hamilton, or some one to be named later is actually good enough to come in and be a starter or even a legit 8 man rotation kind of good. We will have a top 25 level ceiling.

Agree completely, Gary...

 

[jerry]

M'Baye wasn't even as good as Osby was last season.

Thanks for your continued negative feedback Jeff.

 

[garyeb2]

We are going to be extremely young next season. I don't know how many wins we will get b/c I don't know what kind of schedule we will have but next season is not going to be good(making it to the ncaa tournament).

Your talking 3 or 4 sophmores starting...possibly a freshman as well. M'Baye and Clark who hasn't shown any real consistency.

Its going to look very similar to what W.V. did this season.

No, You are just plain wrong. You are missing the big picture. Way to caught up in stats. Osby for example. He looks much better in games than he does in practice. Sure, he will make a play now and then that defines him as the talent he is.

But, in practice, it is a struggle for him to get an open look or a rebound, or to assert his will like he did much of the conference season. I guess that some one could come up with a lot of angles for why that is the case. But, the over riding factor is that Spangle can go toe to toe with him in most of the areas Osby is good. And Bennett is only a couple of ticks behind.

The freshman guards on the other hand, have looked much better in practice than they have in games than they did through the conference season. The primary reason of course is that the other conference teams put better players on the floor than the players they caught in practice.

We will be young next season. I can not predict how much they will improve or how consistent they will be. But, I can predict that their ceiling will be much higher.

 

[KBaden145]

The key here is that word 'ceiling'. It is always possible these players won't rise to expectations but they will have a higher ceiling. It is up to this coaching staff and the players themselves to get to the point Gary and others are talking about. The coaching staff has shown the ability to motivate and develop players year after year and these players seem to be willing to put in the work.

 

[pnkranger]

Yes thats what im saying. Do you believe loosing our two best scorers puts us in the top 25 mix?

If so I hope your right I just dont see it.

We also lose our 3 worst defenders of our regular contributors. Offense is nothing without defense. Why do you think Tyrus McGhee comes off the bench for Iowa State?

 

[WTSooner]

Not sure I agree that next year's team has a higher ceiling than this year's. Experience counts for something.

But I do agree that when our freshman are Jr's and Sr's, that team should have a higher ceiling for sure.

I don't think some realize just how inexperienced we'll be next year.

We could start a true freshman at PG.
A sophomore SG that played good minutes as a freshman, but wasn't asked to shoot much.
A sophomore OG that played good minutes as a freshman.
A senior PF that has plenty of experience.
A sophomore center that played less as a freshman than Tyler Neal did this year.

Not sure people realize how few game minutes Spangler got at Zaga as a freshman. Practice is great. Being in college for his 3rd year is great. But he doesn't have much game experience, and what little he has, will have been over a year ago when he takes the court this year.

On the bench? Cam with experience. Cousins with one season. Booker with none. Bennett with none in D1 ball. And Hamilton with none in D1 ball.

That is quite a bit of inexperience, and new bodies. Might next year's team be playing better ball at the end of the year than this year's team was? Perhaps. But I think there will be some bumps along the way. That is a ton of new bodies, and guys that don't have much D1 experience, to break in. Comparing that to this season, when we only had the three freshman. M'Baye was new, but had a lot of D1 minutes, and had spent a year practicing with LK and the team.

Not to mention offensively we returned both Pledger and Osby this year. That helps. Both guys had experience being the go to guys. We won't have that next year.

 

[seniorsooner]

Let me preface this by saying that I haven't read this entire thread so if this has already been discussed I apologize.

For next year's team to have a higher ceiling than this one, M'Baye is going to have to show up as a different player next year. The guy is far too often out of control and really regressed down the stretch. In our last 13 games, M'Baye averaged 8.9 PPG on 44 of 114 shooting (38.6%). His three point shooting our last three games was atrocious (0 of 8). For a transfer that had two years in the Mountain West under his belt in addition to a redshirt year to improve his game, I expected a heck of a lot more mental toughness/composure/consistency. The preseason "one and done" stuff is absolutely laughable now.

 

[luckyc1423]

Not sure I agree that next year's team has a higher ceiling than this year's. Experience counts for something.

But I do agree that when our freshman are Jr's and Sr's, that team should have a higher ceiling for sure.

I completely agree. I just dont see it for next year. But I really hope im wrong.

 

[luckyc1423]

Let me preface this by saying that I haven't read this entire thread so if this has already been discussed I apologize.

For next year's team to have a higher ceiling than this one, M'Baye is going to have to show up as a different player next year. The guy is far too often out of control and really regressed down the stretch. In our last 13 games, M'Baye averaged 8.9 PPG on 44 of 114 shooting (38.6%). His three point shooting our last three games was atrocious (0 of 8). For a transfer that had two years in the Mountain West under his belt in addition to a redshirt year to improve his game, I expected a heck of a lot more mental toughness/composure/consistency. The preseason "one and done" stuff is absolutely laughable now.

100% agree as well. If Mbaye is a different player then we do have a higher ceiling but if not then I dont believe so.

 

[luckyc1423]

I think everyone agrees that we will have more athletic ability and potential talent. But that does not always equate to wins right off the bat.

Loosing pledger and osby will hurt big time is all im trying to say.

yes we will be better defensively. But who is going to score in crutial situations. Osby would take over games and lead us to victory, we wont have that next year unless mbaye can step up.

 

[bgrch1350]

No, You are just plain wrong. You are missing the big picture. Way to caught up in stats. Osby for example. He looks much better in games than he does in practice. Sure, he will make a play now and then that defines him as the talent he is.

But, in practice, it is a struggle for him to get an open look or a rebound, or to assert his will like he did much of the conference season. I guess that some one could come up with a lot of angles for why that is the case. But, the over riding factor is that Spangle can go toe to toe with him in most of the areas Osby is good. And Bennett is only a couple of ticks behind.

The freshman guards on the other hand, have looked much better in practice than they have in games than they did through the conference season. The primary reason of course is that the other conference teams put better players on the floor than the players they caught in practice.

We will be young next season. I can not predict how much they will improve or how consistent they will be. But, I can predict that their ceiling will be much higher.

Is this the same practice that had M'Baye as our best player? All we heard was how great M'Baye was and how dominant M'Baye was.

Spangler hasn't played any minutes in 2 years and yet I have to hear about another transfer who is going to be all world.

 

[bgrch1350]

Not sure I agree that next year's team has a higher ceiling than this year's. Experience counts for something.

But I do agree that when our freshman are Jr's and Sr's, that team should have a higher ceiling for sure.

I don't think some realize just how inexperienced we'll be next year.

We could start a true freshman at PG.
A sophomore SG that played good minutes as a freshman, but wasn't asked to shoot much.
A sophomore OG that played good minutes as a freshman.
A senior PF that has plenty of experience.
A sophomore center that played less as a freshman than Tyler Neal did this year.

Not sure people realize how few game minutes Spangler got at Zaga as a freshman. Practice is great. Being in college for his 3rd year is great. But he doesn't have much game experience, and what little he has, will have been over a year ago when he takes the court this year.

On the bench? Cam with experience. Cousins with one season. Booker with none. Bennett with none in D1 ball. And Hamilton with none in D1 ball.

That is quite a bit of inexperience, and new bodies. Might next year's team be playing better ball at the end of the year than this year's team was? Perhaps. But I think there will be some bumps along the way. That is a ton of new bodies, and guys that don't have much D1 experience, to break in. Comparing that to this season, when we only had the three freshman. M'Baye was new, but had a lot of D1 minutes, and had spent a year practicing with LK and the team.

Not to mention offensively we returned both Pledger and Osby this year. That helps. Both guys had experience being the go to guys. We won't have that next year.

totally agree

 

[bgrch1350]

100% agree as well. If Mbaye is a different player then we do have a higher ceiling but if not then I dont believe so.

To many IFs to go into next season with the assumption that were going to be better.

Texas and W.V. had a young and athletic team...look where that got them.

Its going to be a rebuilding year next season. Thats what happens when you lose 4 seniors that were solid contributors.

 

[Soonerman]

I'm not too worried about seeing a different M'Baye next year. He saw firsthand how Ro took the reigns as a leader on and off the court his senior year and how much he improved. He's going to be "the man" next season, at least until it starts. He seemed kind of lost in the offense at times and found a hard time getting into a rhythm. Almost like he didn't quite know his role. I also don't mind him taking 3's. He started off the year terribly from outside but then for like a 5-10 game stretch was really hitting them consistently. He works some more on that shot, and he'll be able to stretch the defense even more and be a bigger threat.

The kid is talented, super athletic, and a hard worker. He'll be better next year. I'm more worried about the other guys.

 

[KBaden145]

I think everyone agrees that we will have more athletic ability and potential talent. But that does not always equate to wins right off the bat.

Loosing pledger and osby will hurt big time is all im trying to say.

yes we will be better defensively. But who is going to score in crutial situations. Osby would take over games and lead us to victory, we wont have that next year unless mbaye can step up.

I would agree there may be issues offensively early in the year but I don't expect it to be problem all year long. Just like this year, it might take until late Dec or conference play to see who falls into what role but I expect guys to step up. MBaye, Hield, and Hornbeak should increase their production. Cam, Booker, and a hopefully more confident Cousins will provide bench production. Woodard will be a significant upgrade at PG, as will Cousins. Last but certainly not least, I think Spangler will be very productive from 10 feet and in.

 

[Big Old Booger]

I'm not too worried about seeing a different M'Baye next year. He saw firsthand how Ro took the reigns as a leader on and off the court his senior year and how much he improved. He's going to be "the man" next season, at least until it starts. He seemed kind of lost in the offense at times and found a hard time getting into a rhythm. Almost like he didn't quite know his role. I also don't mind him taking 3's. He started off the year terribly from outside but then for like a 5-10 game stretch was really hitting them consistently. He works some more on that shot, and he'll be able to stretch the defense even more and be a bigger threat.

The kid is talented, super athletic, and a hard worker. He'll be better next year. I'm more worried about the other guys.

:clap

Very good post. I agree 100%.

Ro improved a lot between his jr year and sr year. It's not out of the realm of possibility that M'Baye can improve as much. However, while they may have some similarities, they are also very different. Osby is more of a power guy with a little finesse game. Osby is more of a finesse player with some power game. Osby is much bigger in the upper body so he's built to bang more. M'Baye is a much better threat from 3 than Osby and that makes him a matchup nightmare for some teams.

 

[AdaSooner]

What I'm saying is that stats are easy to replace. I think we will have 2 guards match or better Pledger's scoring average from this past season. And that isn't counting what ever manifestation Cam takes on.

I'm saying that whatever production Osby, M'Baye, And Fitz put up will be closely matched by M'Baye, Spangler and Bennett.

There will be no drop off in interior defense or rebounding. It will be marginally better because Bennett will be coming off the bench instead of Fitz.

Next years addition will be more athletic and faster by an obvious and measureable amount. That is a good thing. It is a consistent trait of good teams.

Perimeter defense will be better. I agree that after Cousins hit a wall and bounced backwards, Grooms need to be in there. Pledger's potential to hit shots in bunches kept him on the floor. Good team defense is possible with one but not two weak links.

My contention is that we will be a little better with the kids currently on campus. If Woodard, Booker, Hamilton, or some one to be named later is actually good enough to come in and be a starter or even a legit 8 man rotation kind of good. We will have a top 25 level ceiling.

Gary, I agree with most of what you said.

I agree that Roe's 7 rpg average should not be that difficult to replace. If Spangler is the relentless rebounder he is reported to be, he should be able to match Roe's stats in that category. I doubt if he will score at the same rate, so making up for the loss of Osby's 17 points per game may have to be done by committee.

People tend to forget that Amath was a pretty good rebounder in his own right. His 5.2 rpg average was ranked second on the team. If he beefs up in the off season and develops more upper body strength, he should be a better rebounder next year. Buddy and Cam were ranked fourth and fifth in rebounding respectively, and they'll be back next season.

My biggest concern is replacing Romero's leadership and determination. He was like having an assistant coach on the floor this season. He was, IMHO, the best team leader to come along in the last ten years, maybe longer. More importantly, he led by example by making big plays as well as leading the team in scoring and rebounding. The intangibles Roe brought to the team will very difficult to replace. Leaders like him don't come along too often.

I think it's too early to say the team as a whole will be better next year. I don't rule that out as a possibility. But as WT correctly stated, we'll have a lot of new faces and we can't be sure about how well they will mesh as a team. I think we may struggle early on, and then develop into a more cohesive unit by mid-season, much like we saw with this year's team.

 

[Big Old Booger]

Grooms and pledger arent good? so this means there are alot of big 12 teams with "not good" players

In big 12 play.

Scoring
Osby: 17.8 ppg (ranks# 2 in the big 12)
Pledger 12.3 ppg (ranks# 16 in the big 12)

Rebounding
Osby 7.3 rebounds per game (ranks# 5 in the big 12)

Assists
Grooms 3.72 per game (ranks# 7 in the big12)

Assist to turnover ratio
Grooms 2.79 (ranks # 2 in the big 12)

You and bgrch keep focusing WAAAAAYYYYYYY too much on offense.

The old saying applies here "offense wins games but defense wins championships". Grooms, Pledger, and Fitz struggled with defense, the latter 2 just weren't athletic enough to guard the players they were asked to guard in most games. I'm not sure where Grooms had his busts but he had plenty on defense, which made him a liability if the person he was guarding could drive and score (Rodriguez from KSU for one example).

Cousins is a much better defender and that's why he played quite a bit. So are Hield and Hornbeak, and from what Gary says Bennett and Spangler are a defensive improvement over Fitz (which wouldn't require much to be better than him on defense and rebounding).

So what we lose in offensive stats we gain in defensive production. It's a net gain from that stand point and the team will be as good or better for it.