Starting line-up tomorrow

[Salt City Sooner]

It’s on Fox College Central tomorrow night @ 10 too for those who might be OOS.

 

[skyvue]

It’s on Fox College Central tomorrow night @ 10 too for those who might be OOS.

Thanks, SCS! It didn't turn up for me in a Tivo search, but sure enough, it is showing here (at 11pm ET).

 

[thebigabd]

With that lineup, gonna need Doolittle and Manek to score 15+ per game each. I predict 7-9 out of Calixte, 7-9 out of Muni, and 9-10 from James.

 

[oudna]

With that lineup, gonna need Doolittle and Manek to score 15+ per game each. I predict 7-9 out of Calixte, 7-9 out of Muni, and 9-10 from James.

I think you’ll get more out of Calixte

 

[WichitaSooner]

With that lineup, gonna need Doolittle and Manek to score 15+ per game each. I predict 7-9 out of Calixte, 7-9 out of Muni, and 9-10 from James.

If James only gives us 9-10, we are in trouble. He scored more than that last year. I don't expect him to make a big leap this season, but he needs to at least match last season's numbers, and ideally he will add at least a couple ppg. I think Muni will be slightly over 10 ppg if he can stay out of foul trouble. He should be good for at least six a game just on dunks and layups.

 

[WTSooner]

I think you’ll get more out of Calixte

Agreed.

And less from both Doolittle and Manek.

I think the offense will be hit and miss. There will be games they, or somebody on the team is hot, and the O won't look terrible. Not many shot creaters on the roster though, so the tough D teams will give us fits.

Also, game to game, going to be different leading scorers for us I'd imagine. Nobody, on paper at least, is head and shoulders better than the others.

 

[AdaSooner]

If James only gives us 9-10, we are in trouble. He scored more than that last year. I don't expect him to make a big leap this season, but he needs to at least match last season's numbers, and ideally he will add at least a couple ppg. I think Muni will be slightly over 10 ppg if he can stay out of foul trouble. He should be good for at least six a game just on dunks and layups.

Agreed. I think James and Muni will average in double figures, somewhere between 10 and 12 ppg would be my guess. I will be disappointed if they don’t do that or more.

Anything less would be a sign this team is even more challenged offensively than I’m willing to accept. I think Manek will lead the team in scoring.

 

[Sooner04]

If James only gives us 9-10, we are in trouble.

I think we are regardless. We're not going to play defense well enough to offset our offensive shortcomings.

 

[WichitaSooner]

I think we are regardless. We're not going to play defense well enough to offset our offensive shortcomings.

One thing I would like someone to honestly answer: to read some posters, you'd think OU has been terrible defensively for ages, and that seems to be why people are convinced there is no chance we will play good defense this season. Where does that impression come from? We were bad defensively last season, no question. But I went back and checked Kenpom just to see whether my memory of the seasons before that was consistent with the stats. In 2017, we finished 39th nationally in his adjusted defensive rankings. The Final Four team was 17th, and the 2015 team was 7th. So why are some of you convinced that it is not even realistic to think we could be good defensively this season?

In his press conference yesterday, Lon expressly said, "this will be a good defensive team." He never said anything remotely like that last year. There were a couple times when he said that they had shown a little more effort in practice for a week or so, but he always acknowledged that last year's team relied on offense and that defense was not a strength. Lon is not a guy to lie his teeth, so he wouldn't have made that comment yesterday if he didn't believe it. So while I'm not expecting us to hold teams to 60 a game and remind us of some of Kelvin's teams, I think we will be much better on that end of the floor. It's all speculation till the games start, but I just don't see why one awful season has people acting like our defense has sucked for years and years.

 

[coolm]

because everyone is jonesing for the games to start.

 

[steverocks35]

I think we will be better defensively. I love Trae but he was a liability on defense. Also, and I know this is an unpopular opinion, but Lattin was an awful defender, and not having him in the lineup will help us on that end of the floor.

 

[coolm]

I think we will be better defensively. I love Trae but he was a liability on defense. Also, and I know this is an unpopular opinion, but Lattin was an awful defender, and not having him in the lineup will help us on that end of the floor.

Lattin just seemed to get worse the longer he was here. Not sure what the dynamic was there.

 

[AdaSooner]

Witchita, I think you’re right. This team’s critics are basing their poor defense argument on how the team performed last year. Never mind that we have four new players this season who will be part of our rotation. They’re ignoring a well publicized fact last season that members of the team were unhappy. Team chemistry, or a lack thereof in this case can be an important ingredient in playing good defense. Last year’s team quit on Lon and on themselves. Like it or not, that’s exactly what happened.

If the naysayers turn out to be right, I’ll be man enough to admit it. But to concede that now would be a mistake. To my knowledge, none of the posters who appear to be certain this team will be bad on defense has seen a single minute of a practice session this season. They don’t have a clue if Calixte, Reynolds, Kur or Bieniemy will have an impact on defense, or for that matter how a more committed and more experienced group of returning players will affect our defense. Will they be willing to Amit it if they’re wrong? Guess we’ll know soon enough.

 

[CoachTalk]

Kur will help. Thats from lon's mouth yesterday.

 

[jaymOU]

Agreed.

And less from both Doolittle and Manek.

I think the offense will be hit and miss. There will be games they, or somebody on the team is hot, and the O won't look terrible. Not many shot creaters on the roster though, so the tough D teams will give us fits.

Also, game to game, going to be different leading scorers for us I'd imagine. Nobody, on paper at least, is head and shoulders better than the others.

Agree on the shot creators....is Odomes the best at getting his own shot on the team? I know Muni has some post moves that are nice, but have been inconsistent. No idea about Calxite, Reynolds or Bienemy...

I wonder if they will work the triple weave like LK likes or if they will run some different offense this year.

 

[WTSooner]

They don’t have a clue if Calixte, Reynolds, Kur or Bieniemy will have an impact on defense

If we're relying on 3 of 4 guys that aren't even going to start for improved defense, doesn't that kind of prove my point? Bench guys plays, but we'll go as our starters go. On both ends of the floor.

 

[WTSooner]

One thing I would like someone to honestly answer: to read some posters, you'd think OU has been terrible defensively for ages, and that seems to be why people are convinced there is no chance we will play good defense this season. Where does that impression come from? We were bad defensively last season, no question. But I went back and checked Kenpom just to see whether my memory of the seasons before that was consistent with the stats. In 2017, we finished 39th nationally in his adjusted defensive rankings. The Final Four team was 17th, and the 2015 team was 7th. So why are some of you convinced that it is not even realistic to think we could be good defensively this season?

In his press conference yesterday, Lon expressly said, "this will be a good defensive team." He never said anything remotely like that last year. There were a couple times when he said that they had shown a little more effort in practice for a week or so, but he always acknowledged that last year's team relied on offense and that defense was not a strength. Lon is not a guy to lie his teeth, so he wouldn't have made that comment yesterday if he didn't believe it. So while I'm not expecting us to hold teams to 60 a game and remind us of some of Kelvin's teams, I think we will be much better on that end of the floor. It's all speculation till the games start, but I just don't see why one awful season has people acting like our defense has sucked for years and years.

Let me start by asking you this.....in terms of team rank on Ken Pom's D Efficiency stat, what do you consider good?

Here is where the OU D has ranked under LK:
2012 - 90
2013 - 80
2014 - 82
2015 - 7
2016 - 17
2017 - 39
2018 - 85

That looks exactly like LK's team record trends over his career. Bad, good for a couple of years with upperclassmen, then bad until he gets another class and they grow.

This roster doesn't have a bunch of proven seniors, or upperclassmen, that "got it done" last year. In actuality, it's A LOT of the same guys from last year. McNeace. Manek. Doolittle. James. Odomes. Freeman. Polla. Lazenby. Those guys were all on the roster last year, and the guys that will likely play a lot this year played a lot last year. And nada. Outside of Odomes, none showed much on D. I guess McNeace can block a few shots as well.

I just don't think there are very many average or better defenders on that list. I hate having both Doolittle and Manek out there. I think that is a recipe for disaster on D. James shouldn't be guarding 2's. I posted an analysis of Calixte's D last year and it wasn't favorable. If this team is going to make what I'd call a MAJOR jump in terms of team D (lets say top 40), I just don't see where that is going to come from. It isn't going to be top 25. Probably not top 40. What does top 50ish get us?

4 of his 7 seasons at OU have resulted in D Efficiency rankings of between 80-90. That isn't good.

 

[AdaSooner]

If we're relying on 3 of 4 guys that aren't even going to start for improved defense, doesn't that kind of prove my point? Bench guys plays, but we'll go as our starters go. On both ends of the floor.

If the starters are not getting the job done on defense, I would hope that Lon will replace them with players who can.

That’s one of at least four reasons I gave for believing our defense will be much improved this season. But if I had to pick one thing that makes me feel that way, it would be the commitment that came out of the team meeting last year. I was told Lon was embarrassed when his friends continued to ask why his team didn’t play defense. He vowed that would not happen again. I believe him.

 

[WichitaSooner]

Let me start by asking you this.....in terms of team rank on Ken Pom's D Efficiency stat, what do you consider good?

Here is where the OU D has ranked under LK:
2012 - 90
2013 - 80
2014 - 82
2015 - 7
2016 - 17
2017 - 39
2018 - 85

That looks exactly like LK's team record trends over his career. Bad, good for a couple of years with upperclassmen, then bad until he gets another class and they grow.

This roster doesn't have a bunch of proven seniors, or upperclassmen, that "got it done" last year. In actuality, it's A LOT of the same guys from last year. McNeace. Manek. Doolittle. James. Odomes. Freeman. Polla. Lazenby. Those guys were all on the roster last year, and the guys that will likely play a lot this year played a lot last year. And nada. Outside of Odomes, none showed much on D. I guess McNeace can block a few shots as well.

I just don't think there are very many average or better defenders on that list. I hate having both Doolittle and Manek out there. I think that is a recipe for disaster on D. James shouldn't be guarding 2's. I posted an analysis of Calixte's D last year and it wasn't favorable. If this team is going to make what I'd call a MAJOR jump in terms of team D (lets say top 40), I just don't see where that is going to come from. It isn't going to be top 25. Probably not top 40. What does top 50ish get us?

4 of his 7 seasons at OU have resulted in D Efficiency ratings of between 80-90. That isn't good.

Fair question. I think that Lon deserves a free pass for the first two seasons because he inherited a complete mess of a program from Capel. I recall vividly that when he took the job, respected college basketball experts said that if he had the team in the tourney within three years, it would be a miracle -- he did it in season two. So, given the roster he inherited and the turmoil in the program, I don't put too much emphasis on those first couple years. Since then, the defense was bad in 14 (when we played three freshman and a sophomore in his first season at OU), great in 15, very good in 16, above average in 17 with almost an entirely new roster, and bad last year.

As far as this season -- here's how I think of it. Two years ago, we ended up 39th in the defensive ratings. I think it is fair to assume all the remaining players from that team should be as good or better defensively, unless they simply don't put any effort into it. I disagree with you on Calixte based on everything I have read from coaches and writers who have actually watched the kid play. Kuath was recruited primarily for his defense and athletic ability. I have no personal knowledge about Bieniemy but have no reason to think that he isn't athletic enough to be a capable defender if he makes the effort.

Finally, the thing that can't be quantified but can absolutely make a difference is the emphasis that the coaches and players place on defense. One of my favorite Kelvin quotes is "you achieve what you emphasize." Last year's team clearly didn't focus on defense, and by the time they tried, late in the season, it was way too late. This season, it has apparently been the biggest point of emphasis from the jump. If you think that is a lie or just coach speak, then obviously you can easily justify your position. And I certainly realize that I might be proven wrong, and I will fully own it if that happens.