I think too much is being made about the Trump surge in the polls. We are a year away from a convention. I don't think the voters are interested in anything but the show at this point. When it becomes more serious, I would anticipate that they will begin to follow Kasich, Walker, and Bush more seriously. Trump is a warm-up before the main event. At this point, probably fewer than twenty percent of the electorate is concerned with the daily circus, and Trump has twenty percent of that twenty percent.
I'm rather pleased to see him out there. For years, we have warned that the right wing has some extreme ideas. Despite the fact that Ike and Reagan both said that no politician would be stupid enough to try to destroy Social Security, we see several who have made that a goal. Trump presents the extremism in a way that makes it less palatable to the Independent voter. I hope he remains on stage. He might even become the next Perot, dividing the Republican vote. But, I don't see him as caring enough to be that insulted. I think this is more likely a performance piece for Trump in which he gets a lot of attention.