March Madness and Covid-19

[steverocks35]

My reaction was not to a single post by you or anyone. It was out of frustration to week after week of bickering with “no holds barred” that produced a hateful dialog like this board has never seen before. That’s what happens when people ignore the rules.

Boulder drew the line in the sand this morning. Now that I know what he expects, I’ll come out of retirement long enough to assist him if the rules of common decency are broken again. Political discussions on this forum are over!

I never wanted this thread to get political and I will be glad to comply. I appreciate you guys maintaining this message board.

 

[steverocks35]

As for “full social distancing,” I read yesterday that the beaches in Georgia were reopened, that’s... not good.

 

[BCSooners]

Also yall pushed the limit too far so NO MORE POLITICS in this thread or it will be locked and this topic will also be off limits ..

If you think there is a chance that what you are going to post is in any way political

DO NOT POST IT

No problem.

 

[stormspencer]

I hate to be the bad guy all the time lol, but that projection assumes “full social distancing.” We aren’t even doing that now, as evidenced by the packed parking lots at Lowe’s.

According to you, we are not "fully social distancing"....but the projection still drops by 11,000. Either semi-lockdown measures are significantly more effective at flattening the curve or the fatality and hospitalization rate among those with the virus (actual) is lower than expected....or both.

Or the model has significant flaws and is wrong.

 

[BoulderSooner]

if you want to be political you can go here

http://ouhoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=43597

note this will be mostly unmoderated .. so read post at your own risk

also remember while political is fine Personal Attacks are not .. and will result in a break from OUhoops.com

 

[BoulderSooner]

or the fatality and hospitalization rate among those with the virus (actual) is lower than expected....or both.

Or the model has significant flaws and is wrong.

these are both likely true

 

[BoulderSooner]

if you want to be political you can go here

http://ouhoops.com/forum/showthread.php?t=43597

note this will be mostly unmoderated .. so read post at your own risk

also remember while political is fine Personal Attacks are not .. and will result in a break from OUhoops.com

bump for the new page

 

[steverocks35]

According to you, we are not "fully social distancing"....but the projection still drops by 11,000. Either semi-lockdown measures are significantly more effective at flattening the curve or the fatality and hospitalization rate among those with the virus (actual) is lower than expected....or both.

Or the model has significant flaws and is wrong.

It’s not according to me, it’s according to reality. We are not fully socially distancing, in fact, there are 8 states that haven’t even issued “stay home” orders. The model stated “assuming full social distancing.” Why assume that when we aren’t doing it?

 

[stormspencer]

It’s not according to me, it’s according to reality. We are not fully socially distancing, in fact, there are 8 states that haven’t even issued “stay home” orders. The model stated “assuming full social distancing.” Why assume that when we aren’t doing it?

I agree with you that we aren't "fully socially distancing" and haven't been as we should. Yet projections are falling. My point was that the model was faulty from the start.

 

[steverocks35]

I agree with you that we aren't "fully socially distancing" and haven't been as we should. Yet projections are falling. My point was that the model was faulty from the start.

I’m not saying that the partial social distancing isn’t helping at all, even doing that will flatten the curve somewhat.

Which model is flawed? This model? There are lots of them.

 

[steverocks35]

By the way, nobody will know which model is accurate until this has been over for a while. Right now we are still in the early stages of this pandemic in America.

 

[BoulderSooner]

By the way, nobody will know which model is accurate until this has been over for a while. Right now we are still in the early stages of this pandemic in America.

maybe not in the early stage if the peak is in the next 2-3 weeks

 

[sheepdogs1]

I agree with you that we aren't "fully socially distancing" and haven't been as we should. Yet projections are falling. My point was that the model was faulty from the start.

When the government is going to make a change to its policy, which changes the flow of money, the OMB always runs a model to predict the outcome of such a policy change. The model is to predict behavior for years out. My gripe is the people who formulate the model likely do not know what they are going to eat the next day let alone next week, next month, next year yet their models are to be trusted to predict outcomes which are highly variable.

 

[steverocks35]

maybe not in the early stage if the peak is in the next 2-3 weeks

We don’t know if that will be the peak. And if it is, then we are still in the early stages, because the peak is far from the end. I know everyone is eager for this to be over, boy I know I am, but the data is pointing to it not being over any time soon. We are definitely in the early stages in Oklahoma. The coasts and New Orleans were at the front of the line.

 

[stormspencer]

I’m not saying that the partial social distancing isn’t helping at all, even doing that will flatten the curve somewhat.

Which model is flawed? This model? There are lots of them.

I've been focusing pretty much on this model:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Unfortunately, I believe decisions have been made, by and large, off of this model. I know Dr. Birx is a fan of it. The good news is that as more of the data comes in, hopefully, the model will begin to become more reliable and have a more accurate bell curve of outcomes. But it is concerning to me that our experts have been this far off and then adopted policy based on inconsistent (at best) information.

 

[BoulderSooner]

I've been focusing pretty much on this model:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Unfortunately, I believe decisions have been made, by and large, off of this model. I know Dr. Birx is a fan of it. The good news is that as more of the data comes in, hopefully, the model will begin to become more reliable and have a more accurate bell curve of outcomes. But it is concerning to me that our experts have been this far off and then adopted policy based on inconsistent (at best) information.

that is the university of washington model

they revised it today .. it dropped total deaths from above 200k to 80k

 

[mict085]

We don’t know if that will be the peak. And if it is, then we are still in the early stages, because the peak is far from the end. I know everyone is eager for this to be over, boy I know I am, but the data is pointing to it not being over any time soon. We are definitely in the early stages in Oklahoma. The coasts and New Orleans were at the front of the line.

Yeah, the peak of April 17, I believe, is for NYC and east coast. Our peak here in middle America will likely be 2-4 weeks after that.

 

[BoulderSooner]

Yeah, the peak of April 17, I believe, is for NYC and east coast. Our peak here in middle America will likely be 2-4 weeks after that.

april 22nd for oklahoma acording to that website and that study

 

[steverocks35]

Two great and informative articles about trying to model the Covid-19 pandemic and any pandemic really.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-its-so-freaking-hard-to-make-a-good-covid-19-model/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/best-case-and-worst-case-coronavirus-forecasts-are-very-far-apart/

 

[thebigabd]

Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the UK, has been moved to intensive care.

"Over the course of this afternoon, the condition of the Prime Minister has worsened and, on the advice of his medical team, he has been moved to the Intensive Care Unit at the hospital," said a spokesman.